Not sure how long this has been going on, but after a little testing I have determined that on my MBP '18 and MacOS 10.13.6, set to do automatic backup to an external disk, if I click on the TM icon, and Select 'Open Time Machine Preferences', if it's not doing a backup it will say 'Next backup: when disk is connected', even though the drive is connected and accessible thru Finder, and if I do a 'Backup Now', it will start.
I can just ignore that message, and the next backup occurs an hour later as it should. Also, when examining 'Time Machine Preferences' if you uncheck 'Automatic backups' and immediately re-check it, the message changes to 'Next backup: <an hour from the last backup>'.
So the message is being erroneously displayed.
I can just ignore that message, and the next backup occurs an hour later as it should. Also, when examining 'Time Machine Preferences' if you uncheck 'Automatic backups' and immediately re-check it, the message changes to 'Next backup: <an hour from the last backup>'.
So the message is being erroneously displayed.