OP, the best way to get a good answer to your Flash question is to visit all the sites you frequent and take notice of whether Flash is running there. If it is, can you live without that functionality when using the prospective iPad?
That's not exactly accurate. There are alternatives to Flash for the iPad like iSwifter and Puffin; these run the Flash on an intermediate server. For dealing with occasional Flash sites, these should work just fine.
Adobe has been
communicating for over a year that Flash is not a universal solution and that developers should be generating solutions without it. Adobe's announcement last week to
drop Flash support for handheld devices was hardly a surprise to anyone who read John Nack's blog post from October of 2010.
Adobe's announcement should accelerate the conversion to Flash-free websites.
I'd suggest getting one of the Flash blockers for whatever browser you use and see how your web browsing goes for a good period of time. When you encounter Flash features, the blocker will make it more obvious.
As noted above, there are workarounds for accessing those ever-shrinking number of Flash sites on the iPad. Your suggestion would not accurately simulate the environment on the iPad.
Asking this question on this site is asking a very biased audience (most are extraordinarily anti-Flash and extraordinarily pro-Apple (in any matter... even when Apple is wrong)).
This is a strange non-sequitur in the discussion. It's also completely false: I have never ever found a single person here who supports Apple's decisions
in every matter. Nobody here in this discussion does that. We are interested in finding solutions for the OP.
But odds are very high that none of us use the exact mix of websites that you use.
While the "odds are very high" that the OP's pattern of usage is different, that also is a non-sequitur. It has nothing to do with the odds that the OP will be satisfied using apps like iSwifter and Puffin on an iPad. The way to test that is to get an iPad and try it for a day or two.
For all we know, every website you frequent is a Flash site for which you choosing an iPad would probably be miserable (for you).
If the poor chap is using Flash on every single website he uses, then he is
already having a miserable time on the web.
Flash is going away; there is little reason to base your decision on a tablet device on the availability of Flash. If the OP has any fear about this, he can try an iPad for a few days to see if it satisfies his needs and return it if it doesn't.
Simply put, Flash is a code that exists on both a website and an access device (with a browser) that enables a user to see animated content and to interact directly with that content.
Shockwave/Flash has used different means to deliver content on computers. In the past, Flash used the Java Runtime Environment to animate code. Currently, it uses SWF files to deliver the content to the Flash runtime environment. Adobe is recommending that website developers abandon the use of SWF files on their sites; they recommend the use of Wallaby to generate HTML5 code instead.
It's still used very widely on the web. (Adobe, the originator of Flash) claims about 85% of the most heavily viewed websites use Flash and there's no reason to doubt that.
Your source seems to be
this page from Adobe's site:
Adobe's website said:
The Adobe Flash Player runtime is used by over 85% of the most popular websites (Alexa 100) and is installed on more than one billion devices. Its rapid adoption can bring new features to 80% of web-connected computers in under nine months.
Adobe fails to provide any date for when that Alexa number was tabulated. They fail to say if Flash is providing an essential function on those sites. It's kinda like the claims of a product that is "Used by 85% of the Fortune 500" -- it says absolutely nothing if the product has some mainstream use or is only there for some fringe applications.
There is plenty of reason to doubt Adobe's claim of being available "to 80% of web-connected computers". Apple reported that over a quarter-billion cumulative iOS devices had been sold in its
FY11 Q4 financial results call. In the last quarter they added over 28 million devices ( 11.1M iPads and 17.07M iPhones -- iPod Touch sales were not explicitly reported). Even if those quarterly numbers don't continue to expand, Apple should easily exceed 300M iOS devices by the end of the first quarter of calendar year 2012. This is only one segment of the marketplace that cannot directly access Flash on the browser. They fail to provide any reference to their 80% claim.
As noted above, Adobe has officially abandoned Flash development for handheld devices, and they have publicly recommended to website developers to deliver Flash-free website solutions for over a year. Flash was never ubiquitous and is now in serious decline.
It's proprietary (controlled by Adobe) so other firms (e.g. Apple) have nothing to say about its development or features. Apple complaining about proprietary content might be seen as hypocritical (with good reason) but that's another topic.
While it has improved somewhat, Flash has never worked well on handheld devices. It was a colossal train wreck back in 2007 when the iPhone was released. Apple was unwilling to cede the quality and user experience of a critical component of the iPhone -- the web browser -- to a third party.
Jobs spelled out the reasons that iOS devices went Flash-free in his 2010
Thoughts on Flash memo. The most important reason noted was the shortcomings that limit all of the lowest-common-denominator approaches (e.g., Flash, Java, etc.). Jobs spells it out quite well in the memo; I recommend anyone curious to read that memo.
If there is some exemplary Flash code, developers have the option of delivering that code to handheld users via the various app stores. The Flash game
Machinarium has done quite well: it was briefly the #1 paid iPad app in the entire app store. If you think about it, the App Store model provides a way for users to "opt in" to Flash apps.
Adobe tried to keep Flash relevant by developing a de-featured version for use on these "mobile" websites but it was a stopgap and one that Apple, particularly, rejected for the Safari browser on the iPad and iPhone.
Apple rejected the execution of Flash code in
any browser on iOS devices. In general, Apple rejects the execution of downloaded code on iOS devices -- unless that code is submitted and approved for listing in the iOS app store.
The development of HTML5 (coupled with Java to provide animation) is widely seen as a way around the problems of proprietary control by Adobe, some of the many security issues from which Flash suffers, and the "bulkiness" and client side demands of Flash. It means that websites can eliminate multiple versions of their content depending on the device and support the growing number of "mobile" devices more easily.
Java has nothing to do with a general solution to coding websites. Besides being Flash-free, iOS browsers are also Java-free. If you read the "Thoughts on Flash" memo, you'll see that most of the criticisms also apply to Java.
Still another approach to the problems of Flash on mobile devices has been the development of mobile-specific "apps" that eliminate the use of a browser (and Flash), altogether. There are especially useful in cases where the security weaknesses of Flash may be problematic since less data are passed from a device to a server. On-line banking is a prime example. However, it's not a general solution since one would have to have hundreds of apps to provide the functionality of even a limited browser.
The general solution is for websites using legacy technology is to convert to HTML. If there is some exemplary Flash apps on the websites, they can provide than package those apps onto the iOS app store.
I do agree that running hundreds of apps would be problematic. But users have the ability to sort this out on their own. Between the increasing functionality of HTML5 (influenced by Adobe) and the availability of legacy code in the various app stores, we can make a smooth transition to a Flash-free browsing experience.
Flash has some fundamental problems; I believe we would have wound up with a Flash-free world eventually. Apple noticed the long-term unworkability of Flash and drew a line in the sand. During the transition, there will be some disruption, but it will sort itself out.
I do hope all of those restaurants and small businesses with legacy Flash sites convert rapidly to HTML. Now that Adobe has made an official announcement, there is definitely a business opportunity for developers to de-Flash all of those legacy websites.
In the next couple of years Flash will almost certainly disappear in favor of HTML5/Java as websites are updated.
Java does not run in those quarter-billion iOS browsers. HTML5/Java is a non-solution. Java is not part of the general solution for websites.