Originally posted by CoffeeMMM
I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but maybe I can do some deductive reasoning for this whole "new PowerBook at WWDC" quandary.
The first thing we know is that Apple is having huge issues pushing the 15" PowerBooks, as the super-sleek 12" and 17" models have all but stopped the previously stagnating sales of the older model Ti-Book. This shortage, in conjunction with huge product surpluses, tells us that Apple had no intention of introducing a 15-incher at the last Macworld expo, but wanted to slowly reduce stock levels until it could do something wonderful with a computer that is almost 3-4 years outdated design-wise.
Now, with all the indications that stock levels are low, we are bound to see at least *something* at WWDC, even if it is just a tantalizing "first look" at a newer product. Some options:
1) Apple ups the processor speed/basic specs on the entire PowerBook line (think more RAM, faster SuperDrive, or *slightly* faster processors) and drops the prices a little more. This to spark sales even more in "The Year Of The Notebook" until a newer 15" AiBook is introduced, or the 970/G5 makes its way to the PowerBook line this fall. I don't see this as a realistic possibility as:
-Apple has just slashed prices 10%-15% on the 12" and 15" models, meaning they are due for some form of update or processor bump just based on the lower prices.
-Let's face the facts, all of us who buy the "reduced price model" right before a MacWorld Expo have kicked ourselves after the Keynote, right?
-Apple has gone to all the trouble of draining stock levels so low on 15" TiBooks, now the least-sexy of the PowerBook line, why would they fill the supplier and reseller channels with more "outdated" models, only to have to go through the same stock-purging next fall with the advent of the 970 PB?
2) Apple already concedes that the 12" and 17" PowerBooks aren't really a "true PowerBook", as they both fit somewhat smaller "niche markets" (CS Students/Those who want a PowerBook on the cheap buy the 12", publishing/design/offline video editing professionals buy the 17"). As per Apple standards (and common business practices for "model overlap/separation"), the 15" PowerBook is supposed to meet the needs of 60% of the Pro customer base (best mix of features and price) while the other models are only supposed to capture 15%-25% of the market *each* (i.e. those who want to spend less for less, or those who want to spend *way* more and get more).
Thus, Apple introduces a new version of the 15", possibly with a Titanium casing, possibly with an updated black-anodized Titanium casing, or probably with the "new school" aluminum casing, to update - and raise the bar for - the PowerBook line. It may or may not include the PPC 970, although my bet is that it does, as Apple has set the stage with Panther, price cuts, supply shortages, and customer purchasing frenzy just perfectly. We could also see a newer, lower-power variant of the higher-speed IBM chips running at 64-bits to supplant the 970 line in the Pro desktop line. The other models will probably be updated with faster processors and minor updates to main-board infrastructure (DVI for the 12", USB 2.0, etc.) but will be overshadowed with the introduction of the new "gold standard" PowerBook. This seems like the most reasonably possibility to me because:
-As already mentioned, the price drops and supply shortages have been long in the making. Apple would be naïve to not use this opportunity to push dozens of thousands of new 970-based PowerBooks to hungry customers who have been holding off on replacing their outdated 15-inchers. They would fly off the shelves.
-Again, it has been more than 3 years since the line has seen an update. If they left the PowerBook line as it is until September - or later - they'd better have a darn good reason to do so.
-Let's think about "The Year Of The Notebook". Steve's essentially been juicing us up for a 15" update since the January Keynote when he introduced what he deemed "The Year Of The Notebook". Do you think he would introduce two such marvelous products right at the start of the year, then wait until the end of said year to update the flagship product? If he wants to deliver some serious "we sold x number of PowerBooks last year" numbers in the "state of the Mac" address next January, he'd better give us something to drool, dream, and die for ASAP! Steve's too good a marketing/PR genius to screw this much hype up. He's got us convinced we want a new PowerBook this year, and the 12" and 17" were for the users who haven't wanted a PowerBook before. He met their needs, now he's going to give every die-hard PowerBook user out there a reason to miss a couple of months of rent.
-With the new PPC chips all but certain in their imminent arrival, why would another boring speed bump in the G4 arena be even *remotely* a possibility?
-The introduction of a new chipset/architecture to the flagship model will give the PB design team some time to give the new chip a "real world run" so they can optimize it for introduction in the 12" and 17" models in January/Next summer.
-Steve likes surprises. He likes it when the crowd stands up and screams. He likes standing ovations and good reviews, and even more than the attention he likes giving CS nerds and Wintel Lusers alike something to kick themselves for: not buying a Mac.
3) Apple rolls the entire PowerBook line to 970/Gobi/Whatever and updates internal architecture and the case on the 15-incher to compare with the other 12" and 17" models. Speed bumps and a new trick or two (DVI on the 12-incher, fiber-optic keyboard on the 15-incher) round out the updates. I think this is highly improbably because:
-Simply put, Steve wouldn't throw another product into the ever-more-complicated Apple product lineup that would disturb the installed customer base like this brazen move. 6 months after introducing the newest members of the PowerBook line, Steve would have to have cojones like grapefruits to obsolesce that many products (and customers). Just think how pissed dozens - if not hundreds - of thousands of customers would be if they dropped between $2K and $4K and then saw their recent investment wither to nothing? And don't forget how cool-conscious Apple customers are. People would take outright offence to it; there would be mutiny! Steve's too good at politicking to piss off that many people in hopes of enticing a couple more "switchers" to the Mac side with bigger processor numbers and so on.
So there you have it, my relatively-informed and pseudo-objective take on the PowerBook situation. Let's all hope for something "too cool for school" on Monday!
Keeping my fingers crossed...
-JK
