Stella said:
You are absolutely right, some other company has to come up with a good competitor ; other wise the iPod will suffer. We've all seen what happens in this scenario - namely microsoft.
But from a realistic perspective, at this point who's left? There were two companies that in the past were widely regarded (and highly anticipated) to become serious contenders for Apple's share of online music sales: Sony and Microsoft. Sony stepped up to the plate and promptly struck out in a resounding blaze of disgrace, and in the case of Microsoft with their awkward, bland-looking rip-off to the iTunes Music Store storefront, arguably they never even showed up to the plate at all.
The key missing ingredient from the products of every company that declared itself an iPod/iTunes killer was (and still is) creativity. No innovation, no attention-grabbing uniqueness, no insight, nothing. Just cheap, silly, poorly conceived and executed knock-offs of the stuff Apple had already managed to establish and be successful at. And it's been nothing but one after the other. That, in and of itself, is nothing new, but what is somewhat new is that a company like Sony, with it's alleged, beyond reproach caliber in consumer electronics, couldn't come up with the goods. Staring right in the face of iTunes and the iPod and knowing full well what they were up against, they hatched a flat-out stinker. A fact all but ceded to now in the media, and far more relevantly, market share.
So then, where is plan b? I hate to point out the obvious (except for maybe Dell, who seems to realize now that it is obvious), but the door is closing - rapidly. iTunes and the iPod are so far ahead in the world-wide marketplace now that time is just about up for a serious competitor to arrive on the scene and do any damage. And the bar for that mystery competitor is going to be extremely high. Not only will the service have to be a fresh take on the user experience for downloading online music, with the user interface and ease of use exceeding what Apple presently offers, but the portable player aspect of the equation can't look like a butt-ugly, cheap Star Trek prop sitting on the shelf next to the iPod.
I just don't think it's going to happen. Not now, and not in the near future - it's never going to happen. Why? Because the companies that at least theoretically have the capability are just too damn lazy to sit down and take the time to closely study what Apple has accomplished and why it worked, then plan, strategize and conceptualize high quality products that take the online music experience for consumers to the next level. But, alas, it's just too easy, quicker, and far less expensive to put out a knockoff of Apple's stuff and get it into the marketplace. Then, leave it to your marketers to round up the suckers.
Even if there were a company waiting in the wings that was actually clever enough to compete with Apple at this point, in order to really succeed they would have to bet Apple ceases all further innovation and improvement for about the next three years. I wouldn't make that bet.
