Doubts on an 'Apple Silicon 13" MacBook Pro' releasing this year

[Yebubbleman]

The current 13" MacBook Pros are designated "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Two Thunderbolt 3 ports)" and "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 ports)", respectively. While I still maintain that whichever Apple Silicon sub-15" notebook launches first will cannibalize and cause the discontinuation of "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Two Thunderbolt 3 ports)", the latter is the one that we're all speculating on the Apple Silicon successor to.

I think that, given that model is designated as "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 ports)" and not "MacBook Pro 13-inch, Mid 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 ports)" or anything that designates when in 2020 the model launches, that it's likely that we're not seeing another 13-inch MacBook Pro launch this year. I could easily see "MacBook Pro (14-inch, 2020)" or "MacBook Pro (14-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 ports)" if I'm wrong about the fate of the current 2-port 13" model. But if Apple was to maintain the 13" size and release it in 2020, the model name would be "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 ports, Apple Silicon), which is an insane mouthful, unless, as I predict, the 2-ports model goes away, in which case it could be "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Apple Silicon)".

So, in short, I'm thinking one of three things will happen:

1. Apple releases a single model of 13" MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon this year called "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Apple Silicon)"

2. Apple releases either a single or another 2-port/4-port duo of 14" MacBook Pros with Apple Silicon this year called "MacBook Pro (14-inch, 2020)" (give or take with the different port options in the model name)

3. Apple doesn't update that Mac in 2020 with Apple Silicon after all, and waits until 2021.

But we're not seeing "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 ports, Apple Silicon)" or "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Two Thunderbolt 3 ports)". The clues are in the name. (Certainly, the MacBook Air, only having a single model name won't have this issue.)

 

[Erehy Dobon]

During the WWDC keynote, the Apple presenters clearly mentioned this would be a two year transition. It means that AS products would be phased in gradually.

The most reasonable scenario would be to start with the entry level models and gradually move to the performance models once both the hardware and software mature.

 

[Yebubbleman]

During the WWDC keynote, the Apple presenters clearly mentioned this would be a two year transition. It means that AS products would be phased in gradually.

The most reasonable scenario would be to start with the entry level models and gradually move to the performance models once both the hardware and software mature.

I'm not sure what this as to do with the post. Apple Silicon versions of either the MacBook Air and/or 13" MacBook Pro are widely believed to be launching THIS calendar year.

 

[laptech]

I'm not sure what this as to do with the post. Apple Silicon versions of either the MacBook Air and/or 13" MacBook Pro are widely believed to be launching THIS calendar year.

Unless a company is supremely confident that a brand new never before seen or made product will work 100% of the time once it rolls off the production line, they always start with lower end models to test the market and test the machines reliabilty in the real world, in the hands of actual customers who in the manufacturing world are known to 'use and abuse' them, a term used which is extremly difficult to replicate in test rooms at the manufacturer.

What makes Apple different to the rest of the manufacturing world is that they have a huge fan base who do not particular care about product defects or issues on brand new products and will still continue to purchase the same product time and time again, therefore they are in the unique position of being able to release a top of the line AS pro model with errors and faults and people will still purchase it knowing Apple will fix the faults latter on down the line.

Now if that happened with any other manufacturer, it could kill the product because consumer confidence would be so low due to faults occuring that they would not recommend the product. This never seems to happen with Apple.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Unless a company is supremely confident that a brand new never before seen or made product will work 100% of the time once it rolls off the production line, they always start with lower end models to test the market and test the machines reliabilty in the real world, in the hands of actual customers who in the manufacturing world are known to 'use and abuse' them, a term used which is extremly difficult to replicate in test rooms at the manufacturer.

What makes Apple different to the rest of the manufacturing world is that they have a huge fan base who do not particular care about product defects or issues on brand new products and will still continue to purchase the same product time and time again, therefore they are in the unique position of being able to release a top of the line AS pro model with errors and faults and people will still purchase it knowing Apple will fix the faults latter on down the line.

Now if that happened with any other manufacturer, it could kill the product because consumer confidence would be so low due to faults occuring that they would not recommend the product. This never seems to happen with Apple.

Apple started with mid-range models last time around (15" MacBook Pro, which was mid-range back then, and the 17" and 20" iMacs, which were both midrange and much more similar to each other than the 21.5" iMac and 27" iMac are to each other today). Then low-end (Mac mini and polycarbonate MacBook) next. Then finally highest end (Mac Pro and Xserve). This time around, we're looking at lower-end Macs first because most of them are using Intel chips from 2018 and Apple Silicon SoCs from 2018 already beat the 2018 Intel processors still in shipping Macs today. What is not certain yet is Apple's ability to outperform higher-end models (16" MacBook Pro, 27" iMac, or higher end), which is likely why it will be a two-year transition.

To your point about stability, I don't think Apple will have stability issues for most customers of their lower-end Macs. It's the higher-end Macs and use cases for those Macs that I'd be particularly worried about. The average MacBook Air or 13" MacBook Pro customer won't be inconvenienced by being this new into a new processor architecture transition.

 

[Chozes]

Any event coming up?

 

[richinaus]

Unless a company is supremely confident that a brand new never before seen or made product will work 100% of the time once it rolls off the production line, they always start with lower end models to test the market and test the machines reliabilty in the real world, in the hands of actual customers who in the manufacturing world are known to 'use and abuse' them, a term used which is extremly difficult to replicate in test rooms at the manufacturer.

What makes Apple different to the rest of the manufacturing world is that they have a huge fan base who do not particular care about product defects or issues on brand new products and will still continue to purchase the same product time and time again, therefore they are in the unique position of being able to release a top of the line AS pro model with errors and faults and people will still purchase it knowing Apple will fix the faults latter on down the line.

Now if that happened with any other manufacturer, it could kill the product because consumer confidence would be so low due to faults occuring that they would not recommend the product. This never seems to happen with Apple.

you are kidding right?
Virtually every single product I have ever bought that isnt Apple has issues and manufacturing defects.

 

[ght56]

I think the launch logistics will largely depend on if and to what extent AS improves upon current their Intel offerings as well as how smooth or how turbulent the transition is envisioned to be. For example, if the main improvement of first generation Apple Silicon is mainly efficiency and the transition is envisioned as being somewhat turbulent, the 12-inch MacBook makes a lot of sense to me to be the first launch product as it doesn't risk two established product lines while offering consumers an alternative should they wish to be on the bleeding edge of new tech. Alternatively, if performance gains are substantial, it might make more sense to first launch the two-port Pro 13, and if they are extremely substantial, it might make sense to launch the two and four port Pro 13 simultaneously or even merging the two product lines to where the Pro 13 becomes all four port.

 

[jerryk]

I'm not sure what this as to do with the post. Apple Silicon versions of either the MacBook Air and/or 13" MacBook Pro are widely believed to be launching THIS calendar year.

This site name is MacRumors. Treat everything you read about timelines as just that, a rumor. No one outside of Apple knows the specific timeframe for any product introduction.