Failed launch?

[mrdm]

No, not from a product desirability standpoint - from a supply perspective.

I can't help but think that the long lead times for many models, even when ordered only minutes after the online store was open, is because Apple was trying to reduce inventory risk. Probably due to the vast number of variations and SKUs (unlike the iPhone).

Here is a product that was announced *last* September (8 months ago) which completely sold out in less than 6 hours. There have been no obvious hardware changes. It feels like Apple should have had ample time to produce sufficient inventory.

As a shareholder, I like it. As a customer eagerly anticipating the Apple watch it is a bummer that it will be delivered 4-6 weeks after the initial availability date and probably arrive 2 months after initially ordered.

Also, imagine scheduling a "try on" appointment and then ordering online only to find out your watch of choice won't be delivered until June or July. I suspect most of the "try on" appoints have already pre-ordered but I'm sure that was not Apple's intent.

I know - delayed gratification, something to look forward to, first world problems and all that. Believe me, I'm not distraught over this but can't help think that there was a missed opportunity here by Apple to delight many more customers and accelerate adoption. It probably won't matter in the end but it would have been fun to pick up the watch on 4/24 as advertised.

Now...to comb the internet for any articles Apple watch related until mine arrives

 

[gwynne]

Failed launch?

I agree the number of possible combos is probably part of what has caused the supply issue. Which makes you wonder why they didn't just sell the faces and bands independently, at least at the Sport level. Or just pump out a bazillion Sport models that all have either black or white bands, and make the colored bands strictly an accessory.

 

[Mythicstatus2]

Lets say the ordered 5 million for the initial launch. There were 9 countries at launch. Even though some countries will get more than others, for simplicity sake lets assume they are all treated equal.

5Mill/9=555k

Given all the yeild issues being reported i imagine the actual stock was close to 3 million which means each country got approx 333k.

Now you start to see how stock gets sold out quick, especially with all the combinations the watch comes in.

 

[matt2053]

Here is a product that was announced *last* September (8 months ago) which completely sold out in less than 6 hours.

Are you *sure* it wasn't announced *next* September?

Oh and that's 7 months, not 8.

 

[mrdm]

.

 

[zacheryjensen]

If selling millions of devices in minutes, and millions more in the following hours, is somehow the definition of failure, I want to fail so hard, let me just fail half this hard, or even 1/100th this hard.

Apple probably outsold the entire smart watch industry for the last 5 years in one long morning.

Failure, indeed.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

If selling millions of devices in minutes, and millions more in the following hours, is somehow the definition of failure, I want to fail so hard, let me just fail half this hard, or even 1/100th this hard.

Apple probably outsold the entire smart watch industry for the last 5 years in one long morning.

Failure, indeed.

Has Apple announced preorder #s yet? Asking because I haven't seen them posted at any site I peruse -- obviously not an inclusive list. Historically Apple only announces - if at all - week after the preorder.

From a practical perspective, I do find it a bit preposterous that large quantities were preordered in just 3 minutes after the store reopened to cause an immediate backorder of some styles. It does seem more like not many of those styles were available at launch. If that is the case Apple should have disclosed that fact when the watch was officially announced in March.

 

[Vanilla Face]

I doubt the number of variations has much to do with it. For comparison, there are 72 iPhone 6/6+ models (GSM, CDMA, Global, China * iPhone 6, iPhone 6+, * 16gb, 64gb, 128gb * Gold, silver, grey). It was probably a mistake to do a global launch rather than a country by country rollout. Mythicstatus2 nailed it. WSJ said Apple ordered 5-6 million watches to be delivered; WSJ is usually pretty accurate. There is somewhere around 350 million compatible iPhones out there and they opened pre-orders up to 2 billion people. So even if there weren't production issues, 6 million watches just isn't enough. I'm not surprised that some model sold out in minutes.

 

[kdarling]

If selling millions of devices in minutes, and millions more in the following hours, is somehow the definition of failure, I want to fail so hard, let me just fail half this hard, or even 1/100th this hard.

Relative success depends on how many Apple had expected to sell, a number we don't currently know.

Apple probably outsold the entire smart watch industry for the last 5 years in one long morning.

Probably not. It was over ten million for the five years of 2009-2014. In 2014 alone, 5-7 million were sold worldwide.

The number has been more than doubling every year. So 2015 was already expected to hit 12-15 million, even without Apple joining in.

Which is, of course, why Apple has jumped in now. They want to tap a growing market like everyone else. It's the same reason why they jumped in with the iPhone back when smartphones were taking off. These markets are going to grow with or without them, but obviously they would love to have a big share of it.

.

 

[zacheryjensen]

Relative success depends on how many Apple had expected to sell, a number we don't currently know.



Probably not. That would be over ten million for the five years of 2009-2014.

2014 alone was between 5-7 million sold worldwide, and the number has been more than doubling every year.

So 2015 was already expected to hit 12-15 million, even without Apple joining in.

5-7 million is for wearables, most of which are fitbit level. I'm talking smart watches which are estimated to be at about 500k for all of 2014 and that was a big increase from the previous year.

 

[kdarling]

5-7 million is for wearables, most of which are fitbit level.

From what I can tell, the more basic types of wearable you're talking about, sold about 15 million for 2014.

I'm talking smart watches which are estimated to be at about 500k for all of 2014 and that was a big increase from the previous year.

500K is not even close to being a possible total. For instance, we know that Pebble alone sold over 600,000 in 2014.

According to the most quoted figures from Canalys, who were about the lowest, there were 4.6 million smart wearables sold in 2014. (They define smart wearable as able to run third party apps. I.e. a smartwatch.)

Many readers here will remember their figure of 720,000 Android Wear watches sold after they were introduced during the final months of 2014.

The other millions were non-Android Wear smartwatches made by Samsung, LG, Sony, etc.

.

 

[charlituna]

Here is a product that was announced *last* September (8 months ago) which completely sold out in less than 6 hours. There have been no obvious hardware changes. It feels like Apple should have had ample time to produce sufficient inventory.

1. you have no idea how many they have made
2. apple's never been one to make tons of anything and stockpile it. for security among other reasons.
3. you don't know when it was actually finished. what they showed in Sept wasn't likely a finished product. it may not have been finished until the March reshow.

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Given all the yeild issues being reported

most of the time those reports are by stock analysts nervous their guesses were wrong. so they trump up issues to explain why things didn't turn out as they said it would. and then if it does they act all 'oh i guess they got the issues worked out'