FCP on the App Store, Windows 8, and other thoughts.

[Brien]

So I realized today, after reading the postings of FCP X being on the App Store, and of Windows 8 having an App Store with DRM'd apps (along with rumors of both Win 8 and Lion locking down the OS ala iOS) that the days of downloading apps over the internet are at an end. It's fairly obvious that moving forward, Apple will be distributing everything over the internet, from Apps to software updates to OS releases, and most 3rd-party devs will probably follow suit. So, 2 things:

- Apps that don't follow the submission guidelines will die, or have to be rewritten.

- Optical drives, RIP. I think we'll see them disappear by the end of next year.

 

[wrldwzrd89]

I can definitely see how things might head that way... but there are some huge obstacles still to overcome, that neither Apple nor Microsoft has a clear answer for.

Problem 1: Virtual machine software. On Apple's side, this means Parallels, VMware Fusion and/or VirtualBox. On Microsoft's side, Windows Virtual PC, VMware Workstation, and VirtualBox. What will become of these applications? They have plenty of uses, but if this future goes forward as you described these will not have a clear place, mostly due to not fitting in with the App Store model.
Problem 2: Software Development (both inside and outside the App Store model) - how will this be handled if the OS is "locked down"? This is all the more important to get right during the transitional period, as if it isn't the model will fall flat on its face. Developers will no longer want to develop for it, which in turn will drive away potential users.
Problem 3: Internet connectivity. Let's be honest here - in many countries broadband adoption isn't high enough to make such a change palatable to the vast majority of users. Apple and Microsoft can't do much about this one, but it'll definitely get in the way.