Some historical corrections:
In 2007 it was commonly assumed that the iPhone would get Flash very soon, so that it could honestly claim being able to show "the real internet".
Even Mossberg predicted it. The prediction of "Flash soon" continued for years on the internet.
It wasn't until
2010 that Apple announced it would never have Flash.
Apple has always kept its cards close to the chest. "It was commonly assumed" only meant that the industry analysts were wrong. Jobs's "Thoughts on Flash" did not solidify Apple's policy; it only gave a rare glimpse into why Apple had made those decisions over 3 years earlier.
I'm certain that it was an upsetting thing for Adobe that the iPhone (then iPod Touch then iPad) were Flash-free. They would be motivated to shake all trees -- including spreading rumors -- that Apple would undo its decision. They knew that a Flash-free line of products was the beginning of the end for their platform.
On the contrary, that clip recommended continuing to write in Flash for Flash capable devices, and export to HTML5 for the iPhone.
One correction, Ken: the iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad are *all* Flash-capable. Apps like
Politifact and
Machinarium were written in Flash, packaged using Adobe's iOS packager, and distributed through the iOS App Store. This past summer, Machinarium was briefly the #1 iPad paid game in the iOS App Store. Apple has banned Flash from running in the browser on iOS devices. It appears that Microsoft has made exactly the same decision for their Win8 ARM tablets.
You main point is also incorrect. John Nack's
October 2010 blog posting was clear: it is beyond the budgets of most websites to create and maintain a Flash site AND an HTML site:
Adobe's John Nack said:
Pre-Adobe, I made my living building rich, Flash-intensive sites for Gucci, Coca-Cola, Nike, and other big brands. Doing that job today, Id be in a jam: How could I create rich experiences that run on desktops (where Flash is the obvious, consistent (cross-browser/-platform) choice) and on iOS devices where Flash isnt allowed? Id have to create two versions of a everythingone Flash, and one HTML5*. Good luck getting clients to double their budgets, though, and yet they dont want richness cut in half.
Good luck, indeed. Nack is clearly recommending an HTML-only solution.
kdarling said:
It was increasing, but still relatively small. Moreover, judging from some mobile stats I saw recently, I think that the percentage of non-Flash-capable users might decline for a while, before starting to inch up again.
The fact that Adobe has dropped browser development for all mobile devices should take a hit on that percentage. Now that Adobe has officially given a vote of no confidence for mobile Flash in the browser, companies should be leery on using it for any mission-critical software.
A significant percentage of the new Win8 machines should also be Flash-free in the browser.
Flash still penetrates almost all desktop class browsers, along with most Android devices, which are being activated at over 700,000 a day now.
But "penetrates" is not the same as actually having the software installed or actually using it.
Here's my take: as a user, it's still really handy to have Flash capability right now, on both desktop and mobile.
Here's my take: Flash was already in decline when Apple drew a line in the sand on iOS. Flash would have eventually disappeared, but Apple has accelerated its demise.
Will Flash wind up being a superior means to distribute apps to the various app stores? I don't really know, and I'm happy for the marketplace to sort it out. I tend to think that all of the cross-platform apps are inferior to apps custom-made for the specific platforms. It is interesting to note: Adobe is delivering some new apps to a variety of mobile platforms, and they're NOT using Flash to deliver those programs. They seem to not like the taste of their own dog food.
I also think that HTML5 is just as unready for prime time, as mobile Flash was back when Jobs first complained about it.
They don't really compare. HTML has never had the security problems of Flash; entrusting the security of your browser to a third party was a total non-starter. Flash is opaque data; it breaks the native UI in the browser and makes native accessibility problematic.
I'm all for moving fully to a standard HTML, but it needs to be implemented to be at least as capable as Flash to replace it.
That's a bit of a platitude. If vendors want to provide a truly rich experience, they make native apps. That has worked out just fine on the iOS platform.
And so far, I'm not seeing a consistent HTML5 performance (or standards set) yet.
We shall see. Imagine where we could be today if Adobe hadn't spent all that energy complaining about Apple's decision.
Labeling your differing opinions as "corrections" was out of line. Adobe is indeed advocating an HTML-only solution, and I have yet to see any evidence that Apple would ever have backtracked on its no-Flash decision.