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Forbes botched this one

eoblaed

eoblaed

macrumors 68040
Original poster
Apr 21, 2010
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Why The Apple Watch Won't Sell

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danmatthews/2015/03/11/why-the-apple-iwatch-wont-sell/

"...a thing that normal people will buy? Not on your life."


Apple Did In One Day What Google Couldn't Do In A Year

http://www.businessinsider.com/android-wear-apple-watch-google-advantage-developers-2015-4

"Apple has managed to sell more Apple Watches in a single day than the number of Android Wear smartwatches sold in an entire year..."


Hope Dan Matthews at Forbes likes the taste of crow. Whether or not the Apple Watch continues to sell as well as it has doesn't change the fact that, yes, normal people will buy it.
 
eoblaed said:
Why The Apple Watch Won't Sell

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danmatthews/2015/03/11/why-the-apple-iwatch-wont-sell/

"...a thing that normal people will buy? Not on your life."


Apple Did In One Day What Google Couldn't Do In A Year

http://www.businessinsider.com/android-wear-apple-watch-google-advantage-developers-2015-4

"Apple has managed to sell more Apple Watches in a single day than the number of Android Wear smartwatches sold in an entire year..."


Hope Dan Matthews at Forbes likes the taste of crow. Whether or not the Apple Watch continues to sell as well as it has doesn't change the fact that, yes, normal people will buy it.
Click to expand...

The thing is, Apple probably sold far more than this dubious estimate being thrown around the last 24 hours is quoting. First, it's being misrepresented directly by saying ~1M watches pre-ordered when it's ACTUALLY saying ~1M *PEOPLE* pre-ordered an average of 1.3 watches each making it more like 1.25 million watches. Next, the stat is limited to the US and to people dumb enough to let this company scan all their email then use the data for... well, stuff like this. But it doesn't include sales outside the US which have also been seeing long waits after the first day.

So, all in all, I would not be surprised if Apple decides to release one number on this product, one that says "look, we outsold all Android Wear devices ever made or sold, on day 1..." or something fun like that. Still, it's almost certainly at least double this estimate in reality.
 
zacheryjensen said:
The thing is, Apple probably sold far more than this dubious estimate being thrown around the last 24 hours is quoting. First, it's being misrepresented directly by saying ~1M watches pre-ordered when it's ACTUALLY saying ~1M *PEOPLE* pre-ordered an average of 1.3 watches each making it more like 1.25 million watches. Next, the stat is limited to the US and to people dumb enough to let this company scan all their email then use the data for... well, stuff like this. But it doesn't include sales outside the US which have also been seeing long waits after the first day.

So, all in all, I would not be surprised if Apple decides to release one number on this product, one that says "look, we outsold all Android Wear devices ever made or sold, on day 1..." or something fun like that. Still, it's almost certainly at least double this estimate in reality.
Click to expand...

It also comes from a company that no one has ever heard of. If Apple had sold a million of them, I think they would have had a press release. Not to say they didn't sell that many, but they certainly did not do better than they thought they would otherwise you would know. There is a reason the numbers for the watch are being lumped into "Other." It is far too early to label this a good launch or poor, and nowhere near time to say that the market has picked it up.
 
I'm not saying the Watch is a success or failure...yet. It is yet to be seen what Apple decides is a successful product.

I kind of get what the article is stating.

Normal people are not "us". "Us" being the first adopters and more tech savvy type compared to your typical consumer.

Everyone nowadays "needs" a cell phone which supports the cellular market.

Not everyone needs a smartwatch and it's a MUCH tighter market to hit since it is a luxury item versus a perceived necessity such as a cell phone.

And the article is spot on in regards to those who view a true watch as more a piece of art and status from a long line of tradition.

But yes, Apple is trying to reinvent it and I hope it catches on and stays. I'm hooked on the idea and technology. Who knows?
 
No matter whether it was a successful launch or not,

no matter who bought it or didn't buy it.

They were bought. Full stocks were sold out. More will continue to be bought.

"Why the Apple Watch won't sell"

They will sell. They have sold. End of Story.
 
sterl320 said:
No matter whether it was a successful launch or not,

no matter who bought it or didn't buy it.

They were bought. Full stocks were sold out. More will continue to be bought.

"Why the Apple Watch won't sell"

They will sell. They have sold. End of Story.
Click to expand...

What were the full stocks? Have the watches that were pre sold on the 10th even been made yet? Maybe they have production capacity for x number of watches in time for April 24 delivery and used the pre order to what how and what would sell.
 
I agree with the article in the sense that maybe the people who view watches as pieces of art with it's secondary function to tell time probably aren't going to be Apple Watch consumers.

Or if they are it will not be because they view the watch as art, but as a computer on their wrist and they think that's kind of cool and want to see what they can do with it.

I think that's all of us at this point - even though the watch edition seems to try to target different types of consumers, it's still trying to do with a wrist worn computer and not a mechanical watch.

There is something appealing about all of that mechanical complexity in a well crafted package with an extremely simple display of the time. I don't think the world is quite ready to give up that type of mechanical precision.
 
Patriot24 said:
People love to throw this around as if it is a negative. Every company in the world would love to be in the same situation. Apple didn't get there by accident.
Click to expand...

I Agree. People know that Apple will create a good product so people trust them and try new things from them.
 
AppleScruff1 said:
What were the full stocks? Have the watches that were pre sold on the 10th even been made yet? Maybe they have production capacity for x number of watches in time for April 24 delivery and used the pre order to what how and what would sell.
Click to expand...

Whatever the numbers were, and if we take the company's past into consideration, I would say 250k-500k for the intial launch, they were all gone. The ones for 4-6 weeks to June probably weren't made yet, but they were sold before they were even made lol. If they haven't hit 1 million pre-orders by now (which I'm sure they did) They'll deff hit that before the launch, possibly 2 million by the end of the month. It's Apple. Its gonna sell like crazy.
 
Forbes have shamefully sold themselves out to google. The only independent tech site I read these days is ars techncia.
 
I agree. I was mystified by the haters of this watch. The other smart watches and Pebble helped show that people like getting notifications and Apple took it to a new level. Comments that $349 was too much or a ripoff were just plain crazy. From the first announcement I knew that the Apple watch was the first one that felt right and would be the one to convince the world that we need a smart watch just like Apple showed we need a phone that gets the internet and they did it with the tablet too.

Apple was not first in ANY of those things BUT they were the ones that made them appealing. They definitely succeeded with the first smart watch to sell this many units.

It was BRILLIANT to make it jewelry! Everyone wants some nice fashion on their wrists. It was also smart to make just one internal configuration to avoid confusion. I HOPE we will not feel the need to have a lot more memory on them. I DO NOT want to see the APP BLOAT we got on the phones. I have actively been pairing mine down.
 
sterl320 said:
Whatever the numbers were, and if we take the company's past into consideration, I would say 250k-500k for the intial launch, they were all gone. The ones for 4-6 weeks to June probably weren't made yet, but they were sold before they were even made lol. If they haven't hit 1 million pre-orders by now (which I'm sure they did) They'll deff hit that before the launch, possibly 2 million by the end of the month. It's Apple. Its gonna sell like crazy.
Click to expand...

I have no doubt it will sell. All sales numbers so far are speculation and Apple has said they will not be announcing sales numbers. The watch selling out in 10 minutes doesn't mean that they have millions sitting in a warehouse ready to ship. They have no idea how this is going to sell numbers wise at this point in time as they do with the iPhone. There will be growing pains with watch production as evidenced by June and July delivery dates already.
 
Is it just me, or does that article kind of read like he thinks the Apple Watch starts at $10,000?

Analogue watches have been around for half a millennium and they are still more popular than digital ones (let alone $10,000 computerised versions).
Click to expand...

And in the comments he says:

1) books and e-readers are a much lower price point than the Apple Watch – paperbacks aren’t comparable to $10,000 gadgets
Click to expand...

It also doesn't help that he repeatedly calls it the iWatch.
 
mightyjabba said:
Is it just me, or does that article kind of read like he thinks the Apple Watch starts at $10,000?



And in the comments he says:
Click to expand...

It looks like they ignored the less expensive watches. Obviously the $10K watch isn't going to the big seller, the Sport model will be.
 
Che Castro said:
Here's another from Forbes but different author
Click to expand...

I was going to say at least he's taking it in good humor with the t-shirt wager, but if you look at the range of estimates he's basing his wager on (an average of of 22.47 million for the year, with a high estimate of 41 million), and then read what he says:

"I took a look at the ranges that some other people have laid out and used them to set a “stretch” goal for Apple: 50 million units in the first year. That’s pretty much the high end of today’s forecasts with a few million more units added on."

He's over doubling the average estimate and not just adding on a 'few' more million, but adding on almost 25% more than the highest estimate. :confused:
 
Yeah, I don't think 50 million in 1 year is realistic at all, and it's not like his "penalty" is anything major in any case.
 
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