Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Forecasting Issues: Did Apple underestimate the popularity of the Apple Watch?

J

joebob73

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Sep 12, 2014
3
0
With all of the recent shortages for the Apple Watch, it got me thinking about what Apple's internal projections were for the product.

I can understand shortages for the Sports Space Grey since they only have one model with the black sports band and 4 other aluminum-bodied ones. But why would the Pink Sports Band watches be delayed as well?

You could continue arguing that they don't have enough of the watch bodies to support demand, but then why are the bands themselves in short supply? Sure, some of the bands are unique, but I would argue that any of the sports band should have been plentiful at launch. It's just rubber and I am sure the watch specs were finalized sufficiently enough such that a bunch of sports bands in all of the colors could have been produced in advance.

What do you think? Did someone make a big forecasting mistake?
 
Partially, I think apple intentionally made less than their expected demand to generate headlines, but it backfired and they should have made more.
 
mrkramer said:
Partially, I think apple intentionally made less than their expected demand to generate headlines, but it backfired and they should have made more.
Click to expand...

I believe this to be true, also! It's made the headlines and the earnings report came out today. Blockbuster news for Apple. Now they will ramp up dates and make everyone happy!
 
die444die said:
That is false. It is not late. The initial shipment estimates are 4/24-5/8.
Click to expand...

For a watch that we saw IN SEPTEMBER. Look at everyone's serial numbers. They JUST started making these. Why? Has Tim Cook got the supply chain so refined that there are literal shortages? Or was there a component issue?

I've been an Apple user since 1992 and this is the first device that's ever had a two week delivery window. I wish people would quit just accepting this like it's normal. Why were no pinks available until 4/28 (tomorrow)? Not one in the entire world? Then why didn't the date range say 4/28-5/8?

People are blindly accepting this silence from Apple and I can't figure out why.
 
adammull said:
For a watch that we saw IN SEPTEMBER. Look at everyone's serial numbers. They JUST started making these. Why? Has Tim Cook got the supply chain so refined that there are literal shortages? Or was there a component issue?

I've been an Apple user since 1992 and this is the first device that's ever had a two week delivery window. I wish people would quit just accepting this like it's normal. Why were no pinks available until 4/28 (tomorrow)? Not one in the entire world? Then why didn't the date range say 4/28-5/8?

People are blindly accepting this silence from Apple and I can't figure out why.
Click to expand...

What we saw in September was a pre-production model probably not even built on the same process. My guess is that they did not crank up production until late in the game. Perhaps they could have loaded up on bands, but I don't necessarily fault them too much for being caught off guard by demand.
 
mrkramer said:
Partially, I think apple intentionally made less than their expected demand to generate headlines, but it backfired and they should have made more.
Click to expand...

I don't think this is the case at all. Apple doesn't need to artificially create demand. Heck, they didn't even need to make the Watch in the first place. They want to enter a market and sell products.
 
adammull said:
For a watch that we saw IN SEPTEMBER. Look at everyone's serial numbers. They JUST started making these. Why? Has Tim Cook got the supply chain so refined that there are literal shortages? Or was there a component issue?

I've been an Apple user since 1992 and this is the first device that's ever had a two week delivery window. I wish people would quit just accepting this like it's normal. Why were no pinks available until 4/28 (tomorrow)? Not one in the entire world? Then why didn't the date range say 4/28-5/8?

People are blindly accepting this silence from Apple and I can't figure out why.
Click to expand...

There is no silence from Apple, they have sent emails, and they are producing and shipping them as fast as they can. They are still not late. This may be the first device that's had a two week delivery window, but it's also the first device they've made with this level of customization/varieties. They stated when we ordered that they would ship from 4/24-5/8. As it's not 5/8 yet, it is incorrect to call them late, as the prior user did. That was my only point.

To get all of these different watches shipped by their expected window, Apple may have had to change their manufacturing or shipping schedules once the orders began, and I'm sure that's why they gave a window to start with.

You may disagree about how many you think they should have had, or any number of other things, but frankly, they so far seem to be delivering as promised.
 
Forecasting Issues: Did Apple underestimate the popularity of the Apple Watch?

die444die said:
That is false. It is not late. The initial shipment estimates are 4/24-5/8.
Click to expand...


Well, someone dropped the ball all right, since the order is not being shipped in orderly manner. I.e. those who were quote MayJune delivery got it way before those with 04/24 - 05/08 timeline.

I also read in another thread that someone just ordered a few days ago and have it shipped TODAY. I think it was the Sport one, though.

EDIT: Here's the thread where someone ordered yesterday and got it shipped today:
https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1874844/
 
There is no shortage.

I ordered an Apple Watch on Wednesday and have it today. Certain models are in low stock and even they are getting bumped up.

I think things are right on estimates with what Apple expected.
 
adammull said:
For a watch that we saw IN SEPTEMBER. Look at everyone's serial numbers. They JUST started making these. Why? Has Tim Cook got the supply chain so refined that there are literal shortages? Or was there a component issue?

I've been an Apple user since 1992 and this is the first device that's ever had a two week delivery window. I wish people would quit just accepting this like it's normal. Why were no pinks available until 4/28 (tomorrow)? Not one in the entire world? Then why didn't the date range say 4/28-5/8?

People are blindly accepting this silence from Apple and I can't figure out why.
Click to expand...

The placement of the crown was changed after September...
 
die444die said:
That is false. It is not late. The initial shipment estimates are 4/24-5/8.
Click to expand...

False. 4/24 is the launch date. They should have all been available that day. Th silly launch window didn't happen until AFTER the went up for preorder.

No one pre pre-orders did Apple give 2 week launch dates.
 
striders said:
Well, someone dropped the ball all right, since the order is not being shipped in orderly manner. I.e. those who were quote MayJune delivery got it way before those with 04/24 - 05/08 timeline.

I also read in another thread that someone just ordered a few days ago and have it shipped TODAY. I think it was the Sport one, though.

EDIT: Here's the thread where someone ordered yesterday and got it shipped today:
https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1874844/
Click to expand...

There are different parts involved in these. Demand is apparently lower for their model which is why it was shipped out that soon. Demand is apparently higher for the 42MMBSB, which is why there are so many people who still haven't received them.

Are you suggesting Apple should hold on to orders that are otherwise ready to ship so that people who ordered a watch that had higher demand don't get their feelings hurt because they couldn't show theirs off first?

I would have loved to receive my watch Friday as much as anyone, but alas, I ordered a 42MMBSB at xx:04:53. I don't yet know when it will come, but I certainly am not going to be calling this a failure until we reach 5/8.

Seriously, we are only a couple of days into the window they set for shipping. Everyone needs to chill and realize that this is a completely different type of product than they have ever shipped due to the number of variables. This device's roll out is going to look different than any other roll out they've done before, because it IS different.
 
die444die said:
There are different parts involved in these. Demand is apparently lower for their model which is why it was shipped out that soon. Demand is apparently higher for the 42MMBSB, which is why there are so many people who still haven't received them.



Are you suggesting Apple should hold on to orders that are otherwise ready to ship so that people who ordered a watch that had higher demand don't get their feelings hurt because they couldn't show theirs off first?



I would have loved to receive my watch Friday as much as anyone, but alas, I ordered a 42MMBSB at xx:04:53. I don't yet know when it will come, but I certainly am not going to be calling this a failure until we reach 5/8.



Seriously, we are only a couple of days into the window they set for shipping. Everyone needs to chill and realize that this is a completely different type of product than they have ever shipped due to the number of variables. This device's roll out is going to look different than any other roll out they've done before, because it IS different.
Click to expand...


There are people 42mm SS Milano with May/June delivery timeline that started to get shipping notice. Why would they receive it earlier than me, who have April/May timeline and still in processing?

I am chill if Apple process the order according to the order it received, but it is not. You can peruse the thousand of posts here and on the net and you'll see all the random order fulfillment. Like I said, someone at Apple dropped the ball and that's the fact.
 
gizmodvd said:
false. 4/24 is the launch date. They should have all been available that day. Th silly launch window didn't happen until after the went up for preorder.

No one pre pre-orders did apple give 2 week launch dates.
Click to expand...

exactlyyyyyy

This thread makes too much sense... Finally.
 
striders said:
There are people 42mm SS Milano with May/June delivery timeline that started to get shipping notice. Why would they receive it earlier than me, who have April/May timeline and still in processing?

I am chill if Apple process the order according to the order it received, but it is not. You can peruse the thousand of posts here and on the net and you'll see all the random order fulfillment. Like I said, someone at Apple dropped the ball and that's the fact.
Click to expand...

That's a different band than what you ordered though! If they are able to produce Milanese loops faster than they initially expected, you're saying that they should still not ship them until yours has first been shipped? That seems like a horribly inefficient way to process this many orders, which I'm sure is why Apple is not doing it that way.
 
DoctorWho36 said:
There is no shortage.

I ordered an Apple Watch on Wednesday and have it today. Certain models are in low stock and even they are getting bumped up.

I think things are right on estimates with what Apple expected.
Click to expand...

You are 100% correct.

Apple is the master of story telling and the public believes every word.

They've been doing this for too long, Apple knows exactly what to do, how many to make, and how to put out the kind of hype people buy into.

The absolute master of sales and marketing Apple has this under control very nicely.
 
whatos said:
You are 100% correct.

Apple is the master of story telling and the public believes every word.

They've been doing this for too long, Apple knows exactly what to do, how many to make, and how to put out the kind of hype people buy into.

The absolute master of sales and marketing Apple has this under control very nicely.
Click to expand...

This is the first time I've ever felt slighted...
 
adammull said:
For a watch that we saw IN SEPTEMBER. Look at everyone's serial numbers. They JUST started making these. Why? Has Tim Cook got the supply chain so refined that there are literal shortages? Or was there a component issue?

I've been an Apple user since 1992 and this is the first device that's ever had a two week delivery window. I wish people would quit just accepting this like it's normal. Why were no pinks available until 4/28 (tomorrow)? Not one in the entire world? Then why didn't the date range say 4/28-5/8?

People are blindly accepting this silence from Apple and I can't figure out why.
Click to expand...

The issue is that they didn't sell the watch independent of the bands. As such, these are packaged to order. Hence the problem.
 
striders said:
Well, someone dropped the ball all right, since the order is not being shipped in orderly manner. I.e. those who were quote MayJune delivery got it way before those with 04/24 - 05/08 timeline.

I also read in another thread that someone just ordered a few days ago and have it shipped TODAY. I think it was the Sport one, though.

EDIT: Here's the thread where someone ordered yesterday and got it shipped today:
https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1874844/
Click to expand...

If it's the same model, Apple should compensate for those who ordered earlier but will get the Watch later. Period. No excuse.
 
Forecasting Issues: Did Apple underestimate the popularity of the Apple Watch?

die444die said:
That's a different band than what you ordered though! If they are able to produce Milanese loops faster than they initially expected, you're saying that they should still not ship them until yours has first been shipped? That seems like a horribly inefficient way to process this many orders, which I'm sure is why Apple is not doing it that way.
Click to expand...


Emm... I ordered the 42 mm SS Milano. My post also talked about the same bad and model.

The thread I linked is about the "shortage" that someone claimed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back