Hard time deciding on buying a new 16"MBP w ARM coming up

[aengelbrecht]

I see there are a few threads about this, but the timing of the ARM Macs sucks (at least for me). We have been using a 2012 15"rMBP and love it, it was expensive in 2012 but worked well for 8 years with very few issues. I share it with my wife (who is a casual user). I stopped updating macOS due to VMware fusion and some adobe product issues as Sierra.

We do run a few important Windows apps in Fusion and that will not change for some time. Still on Windows 7, but will need to update to 10. Been delaying updates on both macOS, Windows, etc as long as possible.

Our plan was for me to get a new 16", migrate and update VM/Windows and then update on new system. My wife will keep the old MBP for 1-2 years and then update hers.

Now the catch 22. If I wait for ARM I suspect the VM/Windows experience will suck for a few years and likely require a new MBP with more oomph in 2 years. So no long term durability for an expensive machine.

If we get the Intel MBP now it should work well for a few years (2-3), but then SW updates will dry up and end up being a poor investment as well.

Either way it feels like dropping $3-4k on machine that will not last that long, I would like at least 4-5 years of good use and not limping along on SW compatibility issues, etc. I didn't mind spending it on the 2012 MBP as it gave us 8 years of great use and various updates.

I switched to Macs as I was tired of the Windows fiascos and having to buy a new machine every 2-3 years and sucky upgrades, etc, etc. Now it feels that with ARM coming Apple has put us in a similar situation, take the pain now or take the pain in a few years or take the pain now and again in a few years.

 

[akuraktz]

I'm waiting, hopefully next MBP 16 is ARM.

 

[kingtj]

Yeah, this announcement really made me think too, as I have a new, high-spec Macbook Pro 16" and wonder how many years it'll be viable now.

But it's probably a situation where you'll get at least 3 more good years from one. I predict it'll take Apple at least 2 years to get things converted to ARM across the product line and they've got to provide another good 1+ years of Intel Mac support after that happens.

Worse case? It'll make a decent Windows 10 laptop.

 

[matram]

Now the catch 22. If I wait for ARM I suspect the VM/Windows experience will suck for a few years and likely require a new MBP with more oomph in 2 years. So no long term durability for an expensive machine.

What we know now there will be no Windows on ARM Macs. Bootcamp will not be supported on the ARM Macs. Windows for ARM is only licensed to other OEM, not end user. and Rosetta will not support Windows x86 VM.

So of Windows is a requirement you should buy now

 

[[AUT] Thomas]

Buying a new Mac now is gambling... that's for sure.
The question is also how much value the x86 Macs will lose when the ARM devices are launched.

I don't believe Apples ARM will make it into the PRO devices at launch. Probably next year. For now ARM is good for casual things, but it will take time until e.g. drivers are updated.

I see it as follows: x86 will deliver stability and reliability and will be fine over the next 5 years for sure. Why? Because Apple just recently launched the cheese grater which is a super-expensive x86 platform. As such full x86 support will be there for the next 5-8 years for sure. Devs will just have to run the compiler for x86 and ARM. So, I wouldn't expect a "dry out" there any time soon.

The benefit of ARM in the beginning will only be efficiency, but not likely raw power. Compatibility will be limited on launch and possibly be never there for EOL accessories.

Bottom line:
casual usage => ARM (Battery runtime will likely increas greatly)
prosumer and professionals => x86

Since you are clearly the latter, I would go for the x86 machine now. In 5 years I would anyway expect some major updates, especially microLED displays, probably FaceID. Also, at that time you will have good ARM support already.

What we know now there will be no Windows on ARM Macs.

No, we don't know that. We believe so. That statement on the WWDC was likely referring to x86 Windows on ARM Macs. And that will certainly not happen. As for Windows on ARM: Microsoft may as well deliver an ARM image for Macbooks. They could even make a good business case out of it selling it on the Mac App Store as VM and/or BootCamp image. Everyone would profit from that... obviously the user, Microsoft selling their OS and Apple making a decent commission on the store.
Anyway, that doesn't change your bottom line... x86 it is.

 

[mguzzi]

My advice - Buy a used MacBook Pro on eBay, Craigslist to get you through. The 2016-2019 model's all have 4 year keyboard warranty's. If it works out and the laptop lasts longer and gets longer support then great. if not then your not out that much and I am sure you will still be able to use it for some lighter tasks or just to run Windows in several years.

 

[matram]

As for Windows on ARM: Microsoft may as well deliver an ARM image for Macbooks. They could even make a good business case out of it selling it on the Mac App Store as VM and/or BootCamp image. Everyone would profit from that... obviously the user, Microsoft selling their OS and Apple making a decent commission on the store.
Anyway, that doesn't change your bottom line... x86 it is.

MS currently do not license Windows for ARM to end users, only OEM. Of course that could change but at this moment I do not think you can buy a copy and install in a VM which would be the only option as Apple will not support Bootcamp.

 

[MyopicPaideia]

Well, the Apple Silicon 16“ MBP probably won’t be coming out for 12-18 months from right now, so it will be a long wait if you are going that route. We’ll probably get the 13/14” MBP, that rumored 24” iMac and 13” MBA, and probably Mac mini Q4 2020 / Q1/Q2 2021 (Most likely all of those by WWDC next year) and then 16” MBP, 27” iMac to follow Fall 2021, with iMac Pro and Mac pro models 2022.

Might even be some new models/form factors in the mix during that time, who knows!

 

[vocalnick]

I’m in a very similar boat - I have a 2012 rMBP and a 2014 6-core Trashcan, and they’ve been great workhorses, but it’s well and truly time for an upgrade, and I’m keen to go back t a single machine rather than trying to keep apps and plugins synchronised across two computers. The WWDC announcement left me feeling a bit trapped at the Intel/ARM crossroad.

After some deliberation, I've just pulled the trigger on ordering the 16”. Your situation is probably quite different, but in case it’s useful, here are my reasons:

• It’s the end of a financial year here in Australia. I use my laptop for my business, so I gain a tax benefit by buying now rather than rolling over to the next period, where my income will be lower (due to COVID)
• I stand to get a better price for my old Macs now vs selling them next year. I doubt I’ll get much for the 2012 rMBP, but I still see them going on eBay and local ads for a few hundred.
• I have a fairly expensive multi channel audio interface that I doubt will be supported under ARM at launch time, and possibly not at all (it took several months for Catalina drivers). Sticking with Intel for now means I don’t have to drop another several hundred replacing this.
• I have a couple of specialised PC only utilities which I currently run in a VirtualBox VM. I suspect there will be some sort of emulation solution for this eventually on ARM, but perhaps not straight away, and possibly very slow.
• I’m inclined to take the promise to support Intel macs for “years to come” at face value. Perhaps I’m being naive - we shall see 😁
• If all else fails, and MacOS support dries up faster than expected, it’ll make a very nice Windows machine. Of course that’s not the desired outcome - there’s better hardware bang for buck out there if you’re buying for Windows. it means the machine’s not entirely obsolete in the event it gets abandoned by Apple sooner than expected.

 

[DanMan619]

But it's probably a situation where you'll get at least 3 more good years from one. I predict it'll take Apple at least 2 years to get things converted to ARM across the product line and they've got to provide another good 1+ years of Intel Mac support after that happens.

I agree with this prediction. I could see it going pretty much exactly that way. I honestly don't think it's that much of a mistake to buy new right now unless you plan to keep it past that 3-4 year mark and would still want/need OS and third party software updates. I do wish Apple would have confirmed exactly how long they're going to support these last Intel Macs though so that it's not a guessing/prediction game for us. In this particular case, I don't think giving up that info would impact sales for the Intel models nor the ARM models so people to make informed waiting/buying decisions.

 

[aengelbrecht]

Thanks guys! There seems to be a good consensus that for my use case the x86 MBP is probably a good choice now. Hopefully will be able to get 5 good years out of it. Will see what happens then, nobody can predict 5 years in tech anyway.

May upgrade my wife to a new ARM MB at some point when it looks like the dust settled a bit, will give me a good window into how well it will work.