How long will a Late-2013 15" MBP be compatible with future macOS?

[JulesK]

I'm trying to decide whether it's worth upgrading now my late-2013 MBP, which has every available factory upgrade. It's in great condition, and I don't really do anything more taxing than light photo editing. It's the earliest MBP that Big Sur supports, but it's also identical to the mid-2014 MBP with the exception of a processor bump. So long as it will be supported by Big Sur and its successor, I'll hold out until the AS macs are released.

Any thoughts on how long the late-2013 15" MBP will continue to be supported by future macOSs? I'm hoping for one more generation after Big Sur, as it's hard for me to see Apple abandoning both the late-2013 and 2014 models after Big Sur, but maybe that's the plan.

 

[cmaier]

I'm trying to decide whether it's worth upgrading now my late-2013 MBP, which has every available factory upgrade. It's in great condition, and I don't really do anything more taxing than light photo editing. It's the earliest MBP that Big Sur supports, but it's also identical to the mid-2014 MBP with the exception of a processor bump. So long as it will be supported by Big Sur and its successor, I'll hold out until the AS macs are released.

Any thoughts on how long the late-2013 15" MBP will continue to be supported by future macOSs? I'm hoping for one more generation after Big Sur, as it's hard for me to see Apple abandoning both the late-2013 and 2014 models after Big Sur, but maybe that's the plan.

Ordinarily i would expect another couple years, but we are in a weird situation now with the arm transition - apple may be eager to drop support for as much old iron as it can. I would consider it a 50/50 shot whether the version after Big Sur supports it.

 

[glenthompson]

Based on past events, figure on 8 years for latest OS version and at least two years of support for the last version it can run. That gives you 10 years. You should be ok until 2023-24. As mentioned, the ARM transition may have an effect on that.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

Given that it is not really safe to predict the future from the past, these were the system requirements of the last MacOS versions:

Big Sur: higher than Catalina
Catalina: same than Mojave
Mojave: higher
High Sierra: same
Sierra: higher
El Capitan: same
Yosemite: same
Mavericks: same

One could think that Apple went to a kind of a tick-tock-model. Should they stick with it, OP would get another generation after Big Sur. But of course, this is pure speculation based on a fragile theory...

 

[nothingtoseehere]

But I think the conclusion is the same: If you are happy with your machine, keep it. It runs Big Sur, and Big Sur should get updates until the autumn of 2022. Then, all AS products should be available.

 

[thekev]

Ordinarily i would expect another couple years, but we are in a weird situation now with the arm transition - apple may be eager to drop support for as much old iron as it can. I would consider it a 50/50 shot whether the version after Big Sur supports it.

Why another couple years? Everything prior to 2012 was dropped from Catalina. Big Sur drops the 2012 and only supports late 2013 and newer. Whatever OS follows it will probably drop the 2013 model. The 2014 will be old enough that they could drop both.

From a hardware standpoint, the 2013 and 2014 models are considered vintage.

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It actually seems likely to me that they'll be cut by the beginning of the ARM transition.

 

[cmaier]

Why another couple years? Everything prior to 2012 was dropped from Catalina. Big Sur drops the 2012 and only supports late 2013 and newer. Whatever OS follows it will probably drop the 2013 model. The 2014 will be old enough that they could drop both.

From a hardware standpoint, the 2013 and 2014 models are considered vintage.

Obtaining service for your Apple product after an expired warranty - Apple Support

Learn about your options for getting service and parts for Apple devices that are past their warranty period.

support.apple.com

It actually seems likely to me that they'll be cut by the beginning of the ARM transition.

i figure they would ordinarily support 2014 for two more revs, and since the 2013 is essentially identical to the 2014 they’d keep supporting it (lately they have been not dropping things as fast as they used to).

But i agree, it is unlikely they keep these supported for very long given the arm transition

 

[JulesK]

OP here. Thanks for all the responses. I guess my view is that that the 2014 MBP would have been sold into 2015, and hard to imagine Apple dropping support after only 6 years. But definitely possible.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

OP here. Thanks for all the responses. I guess my view is that that the 2014 MBP would have been sold into 2015, and hard to imagine Apple dropping support after only 6 years. But definitely possible.

Definitively possible and proved in an admittedly special case, that is the mid-2012 non retina MBP.

Sold until autumn 2016 (!). Runs Catalina but not Big Sur. Therefore supported for 6 years (2022) after last time of sale.

Big Sur should be supported until 2023, supposed that Apple sticks to its rhythm.

 

[hallux]

admittedly special case, that is the mid-2012 non retina MBP.

That was only the 13". They kept that around that long for education institutions, right? The 15" wasn't kept that long.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

That was only the 13". They kept that around that long for education institutions, right? The 15" wasn't kept that long.

Yes! Sorry, I did not mention that I left the specific 15" considerations and went to general observations about periods of support.