The x is rather anomalous. I’m trying to get a sense of what the delay has been like each year for a regular iPhone.
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I’ll be staying in manhattan so one in that area.
It's going to be very difficult until at least the end of January if past non-8 launches are an indicator.
There will be nights of going on istocknow.com and refreshing over and over again at midnight until stock shows, then scrambling to reserve it for pickup the next day.
:edit: I just noticed you said NEXT year. Impossible to tell. This time last year nobody could have predicted Apple's plan for the 8 and the X together like that.
Both the release week and the products will determine this - you can't bet on there being another "standard" iteration and a more delayed "high end" version nor can you bet that it'll for sure release when your trip is. Apple changes it up.
The other thing you'll have an issue with is getting the phone without a wireless account.
Apple requires a wireless account upgrade or to open a new line during the purchase. There are unlocked phones that come sim-free, but they typically wait at least a month after launch to make the fully unlocked carrier-obligation-free version readily available at stores. This also is unpredictable. Other retailers (like Best Buy) are legally obligated to do the same.
For example:
https://9to5mac.com/2016/10/13/sim-free-iphone-7-and-iphone-7-plus/
Last year where there was only one line of iPhone it took a month before the SIM-free phones were offered, and it was still nearly impossible to find them in any desirable config (Plus model, greater than base storage, black or space black).
I would say it's not going to be possible regardless of how little data we have on what they're launching, when they'll decide to launch it, etc.
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If it's anything like airpods... how many months was that before Apple got Airpods in-stock at stores?
Going on 13?