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Other How many generations into the future do you think Apple is currently working on?

The Cockney Rebel

The Cockney Rebel

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Jul 17, 2010
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The 15 is right around the corner, and we’re already hearing rumours about the 16.

Do you think the 15 design/features are already wrapped up, and they’re concentrating R&D on features of future iPhones?

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 16 is almost completely concluded, and they’re working on the 17.

What do you reckon?
 
I believe Apple is always working on future innovations. At this point, they probably don't know if an innovation would go in the iPhone 17 or 18 model. Depends on so many things. In addition to the maturity of the technology, also what the competitors offer, etc. The short answer is, I believe that they are already working on the next gen prototypes, but what e.g. iPhone 17 will include, will be determined much closer to its release.
 
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At this point, the iPhone 15 would have to be actively being tooled up and produced to be released this year.

Beyond that, my guess would be that the 2024 iPhones are being engineered right now. And beyond that, I'd have to assume engineers and designers are working on future components and technologies to fit some kind of top-secret overall roadmap they must have of technologies, materials, sensors, etc. Would truly be interesting to see!
 
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Apple probably has a 5-10 year road map that they would like to achieve. It makes sense.

As they get further along they can tweak plans based on any issues that come up or market demands change.


For example during the iPhone 4 family, they likely were already working on the 6 series because the 4 came out in 2010 and Samsung released the note in 2011. The market begin to demand larger phones which is why you saw three different size increases within a 4 year period.

So the 15 and 16 are more or less planned with the 18 being in the works.

They even said the iPhone X was in the making for 5 years prior to its release.
 
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When Apple was designing OSX they did so for PowerPC, their RISC processor of choice, and for Intel-based CISC Macs that did not exist at the time. The OSX-on-Intel development was done in parallel with the PPC version in total secrecy. When Jobs unveiled the transition to Intel Macs OSX was ready to go. Plus Apple had worked with some of the biggest developers like Adobe to have versions of their most popular programs ready for release. This was a 5-year project.
Screenshot 2023-08-05 at 12.56.59 AM.png
 
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Apple is always at least 18 months ahead. That's why we already know the exact size of the iPhone 16 OLED to be 6.27- and 6.86-inches. The design has been locked and already sent to suppliers for RFQ.
 
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Most companies have 5 year plans. Should tell you all you need to know. But it’s not just Apple, they only design the processors as far as components go, the screens WiFi cellular tech and are down to many others.
 
The Cockney Rebel said:
The 15 is right around the corner, and we’re already hearing rumours about the 16.

Do you think the 15 design/features are already wrapped up, and they’re concentrating R&D on features of future iPhones?

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 16 is almost completely concluded, and they’re working on the 17.

What do you reckon?
Click to expand...
Engineers tend to be specialists. No one is an "iPhone engineer". Some work on manufacturing techniques, some on system software, others on applcation software or on the processor or modem chips. Each of these project goes on at some rate. They do not progress in lock step.

It's management's job to decide which features are mature enough to put into the next phone. But I'd also assume there is pressure on each team to get their stuff ready so it can go into the next phone.

So some people might be working on something that is in the very early stages that might not be picked up for three product cycles.

Also people might be working on something that is never used.
 
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Like actively budgeted development projects? I’d guess 3ish years in advance. I wouldn’t be surprised if they already kicked off a project for the iPhone 18 or will be in the coming months.

But I’m sure there are research groups working on long term innovations that will eventually make their way into devices (and also those that won’t become anything). As well as product managers that have a 5 and 10 year plan.
 
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sjperformance said:
Max 2 years in advance...
Click to expand...
What I’m about to say I know for a fact, because I’m acquainted with the team lead on Apple PVT team for chip design.

He told me this a few years ago, but with the consistent/annual pace of the Axx design, we can make this extrapolation:

With the A17 nearing debut, the teams are in final validation testing for A19, right now. That hardware design window will soon close (like before EOY) and any changes will need to be overcome via software.

TL;DR - Apple engineers are already working on chips 3 generations ahead of the newest thing on the market right now.
 
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I think they have a clear idea of detailed specs for the upcoming two generations. Apple is driven by an R&D team that brings continuous technological innovations. From this R&D pipeline, I don't think they have a very clear and detailed roadmap of new iPhone features, as I assume there are a lot of features that will never leave the R&D labs as they are not mature enough for commercialization. I believe Apple rather looks at the continuous pace of innovation and decides what features could be ready for mass consumption in a 3 to 5 years horizon. They then push their teams to work on these new technologies in order to make sure they are a more final commercial product, and I believe this is when they are able to determine the specs of a new generation of iPhone.
 
I’m sure they’re working 3 to 5 years ahead. But that doesn’t mean they have iPhone 16, 17, 18, 19 silos. They’re working on what technology will go into phones in the 3 to 5 year timeframe, and as they get within a year of release then the exact mix of features/tech for that phone will solidify.

Lots of the things they’re “Working on” currently, will become part of phones as time goes on… and lots of things won’t, they’ll be scrapped. So if you were to ask an engineer “What features are going to be on the iPhone 17”… well, they’d tell you “Nunya bidnez” 🤣 but if they WOULD tell you, they’d have some ideas of what tech “looks like” it’ll be ready but a lot of it could still change. Heck, consider the solid-state buttons that were heavily rumored for the 15, then late in the game got switched back to physical buttons.
 
It depends. I’m sure they’re working on a revolutionary phone targeted to be released in 2027. But all the minor upgrades leading to that, probably 2-3 years of planning.
 
The problem Apple have with the iPhone in current form is that the ‘slab’ design has reached its peak, the Pro Max is the pinnacle so there is little room for innovation past this point. What features can they really plan 18 months in advance, maybe slightly thinner bezels, slightly faster chip, slightly better cameras, all iterative updates and thats it really. I mean they are adding USB C now as a ‘feature’ lol.They have no choice but to swallow their pride and copy Samsung, Google, Oppo etc and release a foldable of some sort as their flagship phone. Apple will of course release theirs once the current flaws are ironed out and add innovative features unique to them.
 
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snipr125 said:
The problem Apple have with the iPhone in current form is that the ‘slab’ design has reached its peak, the Pro Max is the pinnacle so there is little room for innovation past this point. What extra features can they plan 18 months in advance, maybe slightly thinner bezels, slightly faster chip, slightly better cameras, all iterative updates and thats it really. I mean that are adding USB C now as a ‘feature’ lol.They have no choice but to swallow their pride and copy Samsung, Google, Oppo etc and release a foldable of some sort as their flagship phone. Apple will of course release theirs once the current flaws are ironed out and add innovative features unique to them.
Click to expand...
Uh, not sure if I agree.
They had the slab design more perfected back in the iPhone 5/6S/7 models. Now the camera bump has become ridiculous.
 
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