Note that since you show a history of keeping a Mac for at least 7 years with your 2018, a part of this decision is not looking at your RAM graphs now and then rationalizing only a modest amount more. Instead, you need to try to add into the consideration how much RAM you will be using in 2032, assuming you'll keep this Mini for as long as you've been using the 2018. Why? Because you can't add RAM later.
So while your charts imply immediate uses would fit nicely with 24GB, can you anticipate demanding more from your Mac in the NEXT 7 years? If so, add some fudge factor to that. Similarly, I suspect this starter A.I. will only fatten macOS over the next decade as more and more A.I. is piled on. One might try to rationalize that they won't use it but I suspect many of the Mac apps will develop dependencies on it to "force" A.I. to be "ON." Since we can't know how much "fatter" macOS will grow in terms of RAM demand, I'd add fairly significant "fudge" to that estimate too.
If you were shopping only 7+ months ago, both Apple and Apple fans were passionately presenting 8GB RAM as "enough for nearly everyone." But then A.I. hit, Apple immediately doubles the baseline to accommodate it (and Fan arguments move right with Apple in lockstep). Could additional A.I. in the coming years need to do that again? If so, baseline very well may become 32GB as Fisherrman suggests back in #4. I would not be very quick to dismiss that potential. So existing 12GB used now + fudge factor + 16GB as existing baseline + fudge factor + your own uses of Mac growing over the next 7 years seems to make a pretty good case for 48GB to me. I'd be a bit shaky on "only 32GB" unless I was fine with potentially having to replace this Mac sooner than 2032.
I'd absolutely NOT consider "only 24GB" given how close your 2025 use is now with the above considerations... UNLESS, again, you are prepared to replace the entire Mac sooner than 2032+ in case you embrace 24GB and then find yourself needing more in the next few years because macOS needs more... or your own uses expand.
Lastly, I'm not one of these unpaid Apple salespeople pushing upgrades to benefit AAPL (they don't need ANY of us doing that... they do just fine on their own). I consider Apple's upgrade pricing shameful at 3X-5X market rates for comparable RAM. But if you must buy a Mac, they are the only source of RAM, so they can fully exploit being lone seller. In other threads like this, I've suggested some people consider going PC where a fraction of the RAM upgrade pricing could buy the same amount of RAM or much more. It's the same situation with internal storage, also at 3X-5X market. If one needs a lot of either and their key apps exist on PC, some may do better to jump to PC until Apple opts to deliver more value for the upgrade money.