How Vision Services Subscriptions Reach $3000/yr

[Abazigal]

An interesting read about the potential of the Vision Pro, and the markets it could potentially disrupt.

How Vision Services Subscriptions Reach $3000/yr

One of the biggest puzzles of my adult life was this question: Why do people pay to attend live events when broadcasts and/or recorded versions are free? Not only do people tend to pay for live eve…

www.asymco.com

How much for the ability to watch live performances from your living room, but make it feel as though you are at the venue yourself, without the accompanying drawbacks and inconveniences?

 

[Surf Monkey]

An interesting read about the potential of the Vision Pro, and the markets it could potentially disrupt.

How Vision Services Subscriptions Reach $3000/yr

One of the biggest puzzles of my adult life was this question: Why do people pay to attend live events when broadcasts and/or recorded versions are free? Not only do people tend to pay for live eve…

www.asymco.com

How much for the ability to watch live performances from your living room, but make it feel as though you are at the venue yourself, without the accompanying drawbacks and inconveniences?

How much? $0.00

There is no comparison between a live event and a VR rendition of that event. The suggestion itself is flatly absurd on the face of it.

And this gets at why Vision Pro is creepy and likely to fail. It’s designed to appeal to people who somehow imagine that it replaces real experiences and who are willing to isolate themselves from society while pretending to be part of it.

 

[5105973]

How much? $0.00

There is no comparison between a live event and a VR rendition of that event. The suggestion itself is flatly absurd on the face of it.

And this gets at why Vision Pro is creepy and likely to fail. It’s designed to appeal to people who somehow imagine that it replaces real experiences and who are willing to isolate themselves from society while pretending to be part of it.

Wow that’s harsh. There are many people with medical or physical conditions that make it difficult or impossible to attend certain live events but still want some of that experience. Me being one of them. I agree a VR experience isn’t a full replacement, but it would be a richer one that’s better than what you get with TV.

 

[gwhizkids]

Wow that’s harsh. There are many people with medical or physical conditions that make it difficult or impossible to attend certain live events but still want some of that experience. Me being one of them. I agree a VR experience isn’t a full replacement, but it would be a richer one that’s better than what you get with TV.

And there are people who can’t afford, say, the latest Taylor Swift concert or can’t get tickets. This device is not always going to cost $3,500.

As a society we will have to be very diligent not to allow that things to replace reality or to repeat the mistakes made with phones. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have legitimate uses.

 

[iZac]

Eventually there will be a room full of virtual presence devices from thousands of tech companies with a few dozen physical attendees, because every company have reserved seats for their 360 VR bot.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Wow that’s harsh. There are many people with medical or physical conditions that make it difficult or impossible to attend certain live events but still want some of that experience. Me being one of them. I agree a VR experience isn’t a full replacement, but it would be a richer one that’s better than what you get with TV.

Edge case. I’m not talking about that. We’re discussing a product that’s supposed to find a mass market.

 

[Surf Monkey]

This device is not always going to cost $3,500.

Please provide an example of an Apple product that has dropped in price dramatically over several generations.

There isn’t one.

Vision Pro isn’t going to suddenly cost 1/3 of its current MSRP.

 

[jclardy]

Please provide an example of an Apple product that has dropped in price dramatically over several generations.

There isn’t one.

Vision Pro isn’t going to suddenly cost 1/3 of its current MSRP.

Macbook Air, originally $1800 at launch, now a $999 base price machine. MacBook Pro's also moved down the price scale in their lifetimes (Though really that was a crappier product just being called a MacBook Pro.)

Also note the name - the Vision Pro which implies that in the future, there will be other "Vision" lines (non-Pro, Air, SE, etc.) with lesser hardware that will come in at less than $3500. My guess would still be in the $1800-$2000 range though at first launch, and probably not until 2-3 years from now. Vision Pro will eventually get a price cut once competition exists (A meta headset with decent passthrough), but I doubt it would drop below $3000.

 

[Night Spring]

There is no comparison between a live event and a VR rendition of that event. The suggestion itself is flatly absurd on the face of it.

It's not either/or, is it? People will still value the live experience over virtual. But for instance, there's only so many seats at a live venue. Or your favorite musician may never come to your town to play. So surely there will be a market for a more immersive experience for those unable to attend in person.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Macbook Air, originally $1800 at launch, now a $999 base price machine. MacBook Pro's also moved down the price scale in their lifetimes (Though really that was a crappier product just being called a MacBook Pro.)

Also note the name - the Vision Pro which implies that in the future, there will be other "Vision" lines (non-Pro, Air, SE, etc.) with lesser hardware that will come in at less than $3500. My guess would still be in the $1800-$2000 range though at first launch, and probably not until 2-3 years from now. Vision Pro will eventually get a price cut once competition exists (A meta headset with decent passthrough), but I doubt it would drop below $3000.

I guess hope is always an option. But I think you’re wrong. The Air is an obvious exception to the rule.

 

[Surf Monkey]

It's not either/or, is it? People will still value the live experience over virtual. But for instance, there's only so many seats at a live venue. Or your favorite musician may never come to your town to play. So surely there will be a market for a more immersive experience for those unable to attend in person.

An iPhone sized market? And you think this virtual experience will be free? Expect to pay way more than a movie for way less than the actual show. Arguably less than a movie of the show since a movie is composed of shots and edits made by a professional, not a fixed “virtual viewpoint” or some user defined perspective on the show.

 

[kkee]

Macbook Air, originally $1800 at launch, now a $999 base price machine. MacBook Pro's also moved down the price scale in their lifetimes (Though really that was a crappier product just being called a MacBook Pro.)

Also note the name - the Vision Pro which implies that in the future, there will be other "Vision" lines (non-Pro, Air, SE, etc.) with lesser hardware that will come in at less than $3500. My guess would still be in the $1800-$2000 range though at first launch, and probably not until 2-3 years from now. Vision Pro will eventually get a price cut once competition exists (A meta headset with decent passthrough), but I doubt it would drop below $3000.

Totally agree. To say Apple never drop their price dramatically is to say Apply never drop their Macbook Air price from $1800 to $999, but of course human never made a mistake. Just like saying there is no comparison between a live event and a VR rendition of that event. "The suggestion itself is flatly absurd on the face of it". Never made a mistake right?

 

[Night Spring]

An iPhone sized market? And you think this virtual experience will be free? Expect to pay way more than a movie for way less than the actual show. Arguably less than a movie of the show since a movie is composed of shots and edits made by a professional, not a fixed “virtual viewpoint” or some user defined perspective on the show.

Not every product needs to sell in iPhone numbers to be a success. And why are you assuming 3D versions of live shows will be less well-produced than a movie? I think it's quite possible that Apple will convince movie studios to produce high-quality 3D versions of live shows, or even finance some themselves.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Not every product needs to sell in iPhone numbers to be a success. And why are you assuming 3D versions of live shows will be less well-produced than a movie? I think it's quite possible that Apple will convince movie studios to produce high-quality 3D versions of live shows, or even finance some themselves.

This one does.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

This one does.

Based on what? If they capture just 1% of their iPhone base during the first full year, this would be over 10m units. The only thing standing in the way of this is their production capacity.

 

[Jensend]

I guess hope is always an option. But I think you’re wrong. The Air is an obvious exception to the rule.

The Macintosh.
iPod.

iPad 9th generation is $279 new on Amazon, from the initial iPad retail price of $499
AirPods 2nd generation is $99 new on Amazon, from the initial AirPods retail price of $159
The Apple Watch starting price is $100 cheaper.

 

[Lex404]

I actually "attended" a VR concert (Billie Eilish via Oculus/ Meta) and I liked it... It was a recording of a live concert with the 360 camera in the crowd. You also had the possibility to stand at a "balcony" with other users.

Pretty interesting experience. I'd do it again

(also, btw, some artists started selling online shows, especially since COVID... so it's not unheard of)

 

[gwhizkids]

Please provide an example of an Apple product that has dropped in price dramatically over several generations.

There isn’t one.

Vision Pro isn’t going to suddenly cost 1/3 of its current MSRP.

Hmmm…

iPhone SE
Apple Watch SE
AirPods Pro
iPads non-pro

Shall I continue?

The VisionPro is the icebreaker. There will be other, likely superior, models that will have a much lower cost. Count on it.

 

[sack_peak]

Many assume or want an Oculus-priced device & service at Apple quality standards.

That may come by the 2030s or even 2040s.

This growth market is small enough for Apple to make a tidy profit and sell out all units even when they max out manufacturer's output capacity.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Many assume or want an Oculus-priced device & service at Apple quality standards.

That may come by the 2030s or even 2040s.

This growth market is small enough for Apple to make a tidy profit and sell out all units even when they max out manufacturer's output capacity.

They’ve been investing in this system for years. The prospect of making their money back involves selling millions and millions of these.

 

[gwhizkids]

They’ve been investing in this system for years. The prospect of making their money back involves selling millions and millions of these.

And they will. Just not the 100s of millions that the iPhone sells.

 

[Surf Monkey]

And they will. Just not the 100s of millions that the iPhone sells.

Then it will be a failure for them. They’re positioning it as the next step in computing. They need to do iPhone numbers with it.

 

[sack_peak]

They’ve been investing in this system for years. The prospect of making their money back involves selling millions and millions of these.

Last June, Apple's OLED supplier for the Vision Pro was limited to 900,000 annually.

At $3,499 per set it appears to be on the mark.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Last June, Apple's OLED supplier for the Vision Pro was limited to 900,000 annually.

At $3,499 per set it appears to be on the mark.

Until your mom wants one it won’t have met Apple’s goals for it.

 

[gwhizkids]

Until your mom wants one it won’t have met Apple’s goals for it.

Are you privy to Apple’s product planning objectives?

You are mixing up this one product - which most observers consider to be a proof of concept-type product - and spatial computing overall. Just like the initial iPad was expensive and somewhat limited, so too with the VisionPro. You can be certain that Apple has a product roadmap to get this tech into mainstream buyer’s hands at a lower cost point than the initial offering.