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I predict iPhone 6 shortages...

KeepCalmPeople

KeepCalmPeople

macrumors 65816
Original poster
Sep 5, 2012
1,464
664
Los Angeles, California
So I read that Apple ordered 50-60 million iPhone 5Ss last year for the launch, and we all know how tight the supply was. This year the reports are of an initial order of 70-80 million iPhone 6s, however since last year China has joined the party, so I don't see any country getting more devices than they did last year.

It's going to be a zoo again.
 
Actually, some folks think there will an oversupply. Not everybody wants a BIGGER phone and are happy with the current size.
 
I think that even if they increase the number of iPhones, but increase the numbers of the countries where it'll be readily available, it will just break even.

I really hope they don't overstock on the space gray models again, it was hard to get a silver and even worse to get a gold.

More iPhones = great. If it stayed at the same number of countries that get it at launch.

But, more iPhones + more countries = breaking even and repeating last years situation.

:rolleyes:
 
nostresshere said:
Actually, some folks think there will an oversupply. Not everybody wants a BIGGER phone and are happy with the current size.
Click to expand...

I expect there's truth to that, but there are also people who just want the latest and greatest, and the fact that it comes with a bigger screen doesn't matter.

I also think that while here in the US we are finally beginning to move away from 2 year contracts, there are still plenty of people who don't want to pay the full device cost upfront and don't trust the installment programs such as AT&T's Next - they're eligible for a discounted upgrade with a 2 year agreement and will buy as soon as the new phones are available.

I think it will be a few more years before the buying behavior of the past 6 years is substantially changed.
 
nostresshere said:
Actually, some folks think there will an oversupply. Not everybody wants a BIGGER phone and are happy with the current size.
Click to expand...

But then you have to factor in the people who are the opposite, who have been waiting for a larger phone before switching to the iPhone.
 
If Apple can't build enough to keep up with demand then that's their problem, not ours. There are plenty of luscious phones on the immediate horizon.
 
KeepCalmPeople said:
I expect there's truth to that, but there are also people who just want the latest and greatest, and the fact that it comes with a bigger screen doesn't matter.

I also think that while here in the US we are finally beginning to move away from 2 year contracts, there are still plenty of people who don't want to pay the full device cost upfront and don't trust the installment programs such as AT&T's Next - they're eligible for a discounted upgrade with a 2 year agreement and will buy as soon as the new phones are available.

I think it will be a few more years before the buying behavior of the past 6 years is substantially changed.
Click to expand...

I agree. The $160/4 lines ATT 10gb mobile share plans look "affordable" on paper.

Wait till they start adding $32.50 (16gb base model) x 4 lines per month. That's $130/month in "equipment" installment charges.

Bringing the total monthly bill before taxes to almost $300/month.

Cell phone carriers know $300/month is the breaking point for "family plans". Psychologically. That $300 mark has to be avoided at all costs.

Like video game systems. $399 playstation 4 vs $499 Xbox one (with kinect).

Psychologically Microsoft had to bring the price down to below $400. Ps4 sales was beating xbox one in the USA.

So Microsoft got rid of the kinect package and "lowered" the price down to $399.
 
I'm betting on shortages as well.. but I don't care because I'll pre-order at midnight when they become available. :)
 
aneftp said:
I agree. The $160/4 lines ATT 10gb mobile share plans look "affordable" on paper.

Wait till they start adding $32.50 (16gb base model) x 4 lines per month. That's $130/month in "equipment" installment charges.

Bringing the total monthly bill before taxes to almost $300/month.

Cell phone carriers know $300/month is the breaking point for "family plans". Psychologically. That $300 mark has to be avoided at all costs.

Like video game systems. $399 playstation 4 vs $499 Xbox one (with kinect).

Psychologically Microsoft had to bring the price down to below $400. Ps4 sales was beating xbox one in the USA.

So Microsoft got rid of the kinect package and "lowered" the price down to $399.
Click to expand...

I think this is going to lead to people being more conservative with their upgrades and holding on to phones longer. I think this will especially be true for families. It was easy to think of a cell phone upgrade as a $199 cost when the monthly bill was the same.

I know every family is different, but for us it went like this. I'm going to upgrade my 5 on Day 1. My wife has a 4S and has zero interest in a bigger phone. My daughter got a 5c last year. No changes there. My son has my old 4 and has dreams of getting a 6. If it was 'just' $199, I'd probably get it as a birthday or Christmas present. But under the new structure he may be getting my old 5. Or I'll look for a used 5s for him to get.

I think the old days of families going in and upgrading 2-4 lines at once are going to come to a halt for a lot of people.
 
jlake02 said:
I'm betting on shortages as well.. but I don't care because I'll pre-order at midnight when they become available. :)
Click to expand...

Well, whether or not there is ample supply will probably dictate whether there will be preorders or if you'll have to order it on day 1, like last year.
 
sunking101 said:
If Apple can't build enough to keep up with demand then that's their problem, not ours. There are plenty of luscious phones on the immediate horizon.
Click to expand...

Right. But if I want an iPhone any other phone is not a substitute; although this is the internet and I'm sure one it two will loudly proclaim they couldn't get an iPhone 6 and therefore bought a Samsung.
 
nostresshere said:
Actually, some folks think there will an oversupply. Not everybody wants a BIGGER phone and are happy with the current size.
Click to expand...

Really the people who say this are a minority. I would say you could split iPhone users into 3 categories:

#1. Those who are happy with the smaller 4" screen and don't want it to ever change. This is a smaller percentage of people (maybe 10%?). These are the same people who got pissed when Apple went from 3.5 to 4".

#2. Those who just want the new iPhone and they will take whatever it is that Apple delivers. They have been mostly happy with every iteration of the iPhone they have owned and they keep coming back. (55%)

#3. Those who have been clamoring for a much bigger screen. These people have been tempted to make the Android switch for the bigger screens and/or phablet form factor but are too far entrenched into Apple's ecosystem to back out now. They have been hoping for a long time that Apple will make a larger screened iPhone. (35%)
 
where can we order an iphone 6 and have it shipped to your house?

I am tired of waiting in line on release day, I'll pay more for shipping this time lol

should I just buy it through ATT? its' same price right
 
nostresshere said:
Actually, some folks think there will an oversupply. Not everybody wants a BIGGER phone and are happy with the current size.
Click to expand...

But then there's loads who want a bigger screen and a few android users I've spoke to who will come back over for 4.7 and 5.5 phones so they will replace the ones who want a small screen. Keep your 5S, if you are happy with that size.
 
Here in the UK i expect there to be shortages, there usually is, and if there is a 5.5" as well as a 4.7" and with it being the iPhone 6 a lot of people are wanting to upgrade, some people have been holding onto their previous phones 4,4S and 5 waiting to upgrade. Also with us in the UK being able to buy the phones unlocked and without contract straight away from Apple, i think that will also make supply short over here. Personally i'm not sure which model i will be getting, i'm waiting for Apple to announce them first :D
 
Dave245 said:
Here in the UK i expect there to be shortages, there usually is, and if there is a 5.5" as well as a 4.7" and with it being the iPhone 6 a lot of people are wanting to upgrade, some people have been holding onto their previous phones 4,4S and 5 waiting to upgrade. Also with us in the UK being able to buy the phones unlocked and without contract straight away from Apple, i think that will also make supply short over here. Personally i'm not sure which model i will be getting, i'm waiting for Apple to announce them first :D
Click to expand...

Same in the UK, Wales. I'll be cueing in Cardiff but not sure which version I'll get but heading more towards the 5.5 if its out then otherwise im stuck with the 4.7
 
By all accounts, apple seems to be working hard to avoid shortages. I expect it to occur, though perhaps less severe then years past.
 
recklesslife85 said:
Same in the UK, Wales. I'll be cueing in Cardiff but not sure which version I'll get but heading more towards the 5.5 if its out then otherwise im stuck with the 4.7
Click to expand...

Also depends if they let us pre-order, either way i'm unsure if i will get the 5.5" or the 4.7" if they don't announce a 5.5" i still think that a 4.7" is a nice little jump, after all it should still be one handed use compatible.
 
bobright said:
Anybody ordering the full retail tmobile model online at midnight to use with AT&T?
Click to expand...

I was thinking about it originally, butt now that NEXT is available, I might just get the AT&T model and pay it off early. Once it's paid off AT&T will unlock it anyway. I can use my unlocked 5S with my T-Mobile prepaid 2nd line till they do unlock it.
 
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