Does the lack of a beta release today confirm that beta 4 is actually a 'beta-and-a-half'? That it represents three full weeks worth of improvements rather than two weeks worth postponed for a week due to down dev site? It would stand to reason, otherwise they would have had another two weeks of updates ready for a 10am release today. Thoughts?
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iOS 7 beta 4.5
- Thread starter cleo1
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In my opinion, there are more important things to ruminate over than this. You are wasting your time.
No, because beta 4 was probably not even scheduled for release until last week. Each iOS 7 beta thus far has been released exactly a month before the previous beta expires and beta 4 continued that pattern. Apple has yet to follow a two week beta release pattern for any of their update releases.
Beta 1: Released June 10, 2013, expires July 24, 2013
Beta 2: Released June 24, 2013, expires August 8, 2013
Beta 3: Released July 8, 2013, expires August 29, 2013
Beta 4: Released July 29, 2013, expires September 12, 2013
Beta 1: Released June 10, 2013, expires July 24, 2013
Beta 2: Released June 24, 2013, expires August 8, 2013
Beta 3: Released July 8, 2013, expires August 29, 2013
Beta 4: Released July 29, 2013, expires September 12, 2013
Thanks for the insight.
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Nice! You're awesome.
Seems to confirm they put an extra week of work in.
Yep. Everyone seems to think they HAD to stick to a two week release pattern when they've never done that for every beta in a beta period. Sure, they may do a couple every two weeks, but they've never followed a two week pattern for every release in a beta period.
For many of us ($AAPL is the most widely-held stock), our incomes depend on knowing how far along iOS 7 ishelps us know what kind of market catalyst the final release will be. Calculating this sort of thing is serious business.
Betas are not based on a particular time period. Beta 4 is whatever the next beta that comes after beta 3, no matter how long of a time has passed between the two.
Just because 3 weeks passed between beta 3 and 4 doesn't mean that 1.5 as many things went into that update or something like that--time is not really some sort of 1-1 relationship to amount of work, fixes, or changes that are in an update.
Sure, there might be some circumstances where some beta was't released and was more of an "internal" one and then another one was pushed out later, and there might be a skip in the numbering, but I don't think that happens with betas all that much, at least not with Apple ones.
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Just because 3 weeks passed between beta 3 and 4 doesn't mean that 1.5 as many things went into that update or something like that--time is not really some sort of 1-1 relationship to amount of work, fixes, or changes that are in an update.
Sure, there might be some circumstances where some beta was't released and was more of an "internal" one and then another one was pushed out later, and there might be a skip in the numbering, but I don't think that happens with betas all that much, at least not with Apple ones.
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Stock market reacts so randomly to all kinds of things, that "calculating" things in relation to it is not only something that doesn't really work, but is often something that can be misleading too.
First, thank you for the thoughtful response.
Second, while markets are indeed chaotic, there are patterns that can be recognized. And if you give yourself a wide target, such as 'will iOS 7 hit or miss?', which is all you really need to know in this case, you increase your odds substantially. Still, while the question is simple, the way to the answer is subtle and may be revealed through substantial listening.