iPhone 5S/5C Sales Predictions

[booksbooks]

Unlike fanboys, I'm not entranced by Apple. I use and love their products though.

I'm interested in people's sales predictions.

Apple put out a press release stating that they sold 9 million phones in the opening weekend. What they didn't tell you was how many were sitting in inventory. Analysts estimate as high as 3-4 million. So they may have sold just 5-6 million on opening weekend.

Also, this is 2 phones. And they launched in China on day 1, something they've never done before.

How does this stack up? The iPhone 5 sold 5 million its first weekend, and they never launched in China. And they didn't have 2 new phones.

This leads me to the conclusion that demand for Apple's iPhones has declined, if in fact some millions of iPhones were sitting in channel inventory when Apple made its announcement.

My prediction is... there's a reality distortion field at play. I don't think Apple's sales are going to be much more than the iPhone 5's ending the first 3 month quarter. My prediction is that for the year this product cycle lasts, sales are going to be in decline with no growth and it's going to get worse and worse throughout next year.

The reason I think Apple will struggle after this initial rush is that:

1. New Android phones will continue their assault. The MotoX isn't half bad, and there's always the huge Note 3 or S4.
2. As much as Apple has innovated the hardware (specs) inside the iPhone, they didn't change the design/screensize. I think people want a larger screen and they're getting bored with Apple's iPhones.

I could be wrong. What is your prediction?

 

[tshrimp]

Very difficult question. Not sure Apple made enough changes to warrant an upgrade. However, the must have the newest/latest and greatest crowd will be out in force.

I do think that if Apple continues with minimal features in their upgrades that you might start to see things slip in the future, but this is just an "S" series upgrade.

 

[Tthomas612]

Unlike fanboys, I'm not entranced by Apple. I use and love their products though.

I'm interested in people's sales predictions.

Apple put out a press release stating that they sold 9 million phones in the opening weekend. What they didn't tell you was how many were sitting in inventory. Analysts estimate as high as 3-4 million. So they may have sold just 5-6 million on opening weekend.

Also, this is 2 phones. And they launched in China on day 1, something they've never done before.

How does this stack up? The iPhone 5 sold 5 million its first weekend, and they never launched in China. And they didn't have 2 new phones.

This leads me to the conclusion that demand for Apple's iPhones has declined, if in fact some millions of iPhones were sitting in channel inventory when Apple made its announcement.

My prediction is... there's a reality distortion field at play. I don't think Apple's sales are going to be much more than the iPhone 5's ending the first 3 month quarter. My prediction is that for the year this product cycle lasts, sales are going to be in decline with no growth and it's going to get worse and worse throughout next year.

The reason I think Apple will struggle after this initial rush is that:

1. New Android phones will continue their assault. The MotoX isn't half bad, and there's always the huge Note 3 or S4.
2. As much as Apple has innovated the hardware (specs) inside the iPhone, they didn't change the design/screensize. I think people want a larger screen and they're getting bored with Apple's iPhones.

I could be wrong. What is your prediction?

Well this is a possibility, but I do believe the first 3 months sales figures will be bigger a lot bigger then iphone 5 launch. Why? This time there's two "new" phones and I believe that interest in the 5c is going to pick up a lot. Again I could be wrong, but my guess is Apple probably "sold" 6-7 million for sure.

 

[SilentLoner]

every year we get this. The iphone 5c wasn't designed to compete it was just there so that the people who dont need the full 5s experience can have just as compelling option. It was more to do with stopping the bleed off of the old models rather than compete with the new one.

People are confusing android with it being one designer, its not its multiple vendors and they all are getting nowhere near the same amount of numbers.

 

[Patriot24]

We're going to be wondering for a long time, because they will never, ever show us the split between 5S and 5C. It simply will not happen.

With that said, they are still selling a ridiculous amount of devices and making an equally ridiculous amount of money.

The reports of Apple's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

[booksbooks]

We're going to be wondering for a long time, because they will never, ever show us the split between 5S and 5C. It simply will not happen.

With that said, they are still selling a ridiculous amount of devices and making an equally ridiculous amount of money.

The reports of Apple's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

The first step is not taking what the media says as truth. As you say, they'll never split the numbers of both models... alluding to only Apple knows. In the end, only Apple really knows about what's going on with their business. The PR pads the bottom line. Minimizes negative markets. Etc.

I love Apple's products but I just see a major slowdown. This design of the iPhone is going to be 4 years old next September. Ya, marginal tweaks but at the end of the day, it's the same design. I'm getting bored. Big, thick, ugly 90s bezels. The screen is just too small. Too long and narrow.

I want that MotoX screen size and form factor but I want Apple to do it. I also find the thumbnail scanner a gimmick. I'd love it if it were embedded anywhere on the screen. But that damn clunky home button just won't go away. Now we can look forward to ugly bezels for the next few years.

Anyway, the fact that the downtown Apple Store in my city were not sold out on the opening weekend speaks volumes to me. Yes, maybe they got extra stock compared to every other launch. But this is a very busy Apple Store with famous, long lines down the street every new iPhone launch except last year's, where it wasn't as crazy. And this year? No sell outs.

I predict that the initial rush will carry Apple's sales for the first few months but things are going to taper off big time after this. We'll see a blip of iPhone purchases for the holiday season/after the new iPads are announced.

By next year, Tim Cook will start feeling the heat.

 

[Col Ronson]

Its interesting to see people claim Apple is on the decline, but what other smartphone mfg sells 9 million phones on opening weekend?

I'm not sure about much being stuck in supply transition, seeing how most vendors/retailers are still out of stock of the 5S. It's unlikely anybody is sitting on inventory with such high demand and low supply.

Sure it would be nice if the screen had fingerprint scanning technology, but that technology doesn't exist as far as i know. It would be impossible for the screen to differentiate between being touched and being prompted to scan. Those are two separate components/technologies that have not been combined.

Just my two cents, which is shared by 99% of satisfied 5S users. I could care less if my iPhone looks like previous iPhones. I don't buy smartphones just so i have something new, different, and flashy looking. I buy a phone because it has features i want. Why deviate from a try and true formula? the overall look/design of the iPod hasn't changed since 2001. You still got a rectangular device with a screen and a circle that controls the functions. And the reason the iPod doesn't sell much anymore is because EVERYBODY has an iPod.

eventually smartphone sales will taper off, but because eventually everybody will have a smartphone.

100% of apple stores within 200 miles of me were sold out of 5Ses. Thats about 20 stores.

 

[aneftp]

Hard to predict. Apple's q2 2013 earnings (the very last earnings report) indicates that total iPhone sales (4/4s/5) had INCREASED 20% from q2 2012. Which was quite remarkable considering this was reported in July 2013 when the iPhone 5 was over 10 months old and the 4s was 19 months old and the 4 was 37 months old.

http://www.neowin.net/news/apple-sells-312-million-iphones-and-146-million-ipads-in-q2-2013

So who knows how many 5s/5c apple will sell. They key market is China and Apple deal with china mobile and it's 700 million subscribers. Even a tiny bucket of those 700 million subscribers buying iPhone 5c or 5S can drastically lead Apple to brag that sales are up 30-40%. We are talking 700 million subscribers. Just 1% of 700 million buying iPhone means a 7 million boost in sales. Easily can boost sales.

 

[DollaTwentyFive]

The reports of Apple's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Seriously. People are so out of touch. Apple in in a position where everything it releases must be the best thing ever. (Admittedly, their own keynote perpetuate this) There seems to be no room for an underperforming device. There have been flops in the past yet life and, in fact, business still moves forward. It would take a lot for Apple to meet demise. BlackBerry had one product. That product has been failing for several years. Apple has many products. One bad iPhone or one bad MacBook is not going to spell ruin for the company. They have more assets than many developing nations combined.

 

[booksbooks]

Its interesting to see people claim Apple is on the decline, but what other smartphone mfg sells 9 million phones on opening weekend?

I'm not sure about much being stuck in supply transition, seeing how most vendors/retailers are still out of stock of the 5S. It's unlikely anybody is sitting on inventory with such high demand and low supply.

Sure it would be nice if the screen had fingerprint scanning technology, but that technology doesn't exist as far as i know. It would be impossible for the screen to differentiate between being touched and being prompted to scan. Those are two separate components/technologies that have not been combined.

Just my two cents, which is shared by 99% of satisfied 5S users. I could care less if my iPhone looks like previous iPhones. I don't buy smartphones just so i have something new, different, and flashy looking. I buy a phone because it has features i want. Why deviate from a try and true formula? the overall look/design of the iPod hasn't changed since 2001. You still got a rectangular device with a screen and a circle that controls the functions. And the reason the iPod doesn't sell much anymore is because EVERYBODY has an iPod.

eventually smartphone sales will taper off, but because eventually everybody will have a smartphone.

100% of apple stores within 200 miles of me were sold out of 5Ses. Thats about 20 stores.

The overall look of the iPod hasn't changed since 2001? Now that's a laugh.

Anyway, I checked several stores downtown and they all had stock... So for this big city anyway, it's not sold out.

 

[Maclver]

What they didn't tell you was how many were sitting in inventory. Analysts estimate as high as 3-4 million. So they may have sold just 5-6 million on opening weekend.

Unlike other companies, I think that Apple actually reports sold to customers. Not what is sold to vendors for inventory.

 

[Patriot24]

The overall look of the iPod hasn't changed since 2001? Now that's a laugh.

Anyway, I checked several stores downtown and they all had stock... So for this big city anyway, it's not sold out.

You appear to be very hung up on the physical design of these devices. Great technological strides have been made in a short period of time.

Technology is not about throwing everything away every year to build something completely new. It is about incremental improvement.

You act as if laptop design has changed in any meaningful way in the last 20 years. Oh wait, MacBook Airs, and dare I say, iPads.

I bet you don't wear a watch because it looks the same as it did 30 years ago. Don't worry, though, Apple will fix that next year too.

 

[sviato]

iirc I read an article where an analyst claimed that 5s:5c sales were 3 to 1

 

[riverfreak]

Very difficult question. Not sure Apple made enough changes to warrant an upgrade. However, the must have the newest/latest and greatest crowd will be out in force.

I do think that if Apple continues with minimal features in their upgrades that you might start to see things slip in the future, but this is just an "S" series upgrade.

Regardless of what you think makes for a compelling upgrade, you're also forgetting the planned obsolescence of consumer electronics. It's not just the latest/greatest crowd upgrading.

There's a whole built in audience of people whose phones are slowly withering away/being dropped in the toilet/run over. Will some be compelled by other hardware and jump ship? Perhaps. Will many stick with the Apple brand and iPhone franchise. You bet.

 

[Fairchild]

Never mind the androids. Once the 5c really takes hold (which will happen because of the openness of trying it out in the retail stores) apple will experience steady growth right up until they releaae their next major upgrade which will probably involve slight screen size increase but also revolutionary features that none of the followers will be able to comprehend. I think the aesthetic of what we've come to expect of phones will be challenged. Let's face it; how much can we really innovate on present cell phone designs?

Also, it won't be long before iOS isn't limited to portable devices. People forget how solid the apple ecosystem is, and it is evolving to accommodate more and more users in many different aspects of our lives. The top end androids are selling us gimmicks with limited practicality beyond openness which is great, but they are complicated to understand and take advantage of without dedicating some serious time, which your average user just isn't willing to spend.

Apple doesn't care about market share apparently, and that's fine by me.
IMO