iPhone Lifts Smartphone Market Shipments as Rivals Stall

[MacRumors]

Apple's iPhone shipments are expected to grow nearly 4% in 2025, lifting the entire smartphone industry as rivals face slower demand and regional setbacks, according to new data from IDC.

IDC has raised its 2025 worldwide smartphone forecast, projecting 1% year-over-year growth to 1.24 billion units, compared with its earlier May forecast of just 0.6%. The iPhone is the main driver behind the increase, which is now expected to expand 3.9% this year. IDC noted that without Apple, the global smartphone market would be flat or in decline.

The resilience of the iPhone stands in contrast to weakening Android sales, particularly in China. IDC emphasized that trade-in offers, installment plans, and customer loyalty have enabled Apple to sustain upgrades in an environment where many users now keep smartphones for four years or more. The firm said most iPhone customers remain committed to iOS, a factor that has helped Apple expand its share even as other manufacturers pursue lower-cost volume.

Average selling prices in the smartphone industry are forecast to increase 5% in 2025, with overall value rising 6%. IDC attributed this to a vendor focus on premiumization, supported by promotions and interest-free financing. Apple has leaned heavily on this approach, doubling down on its premium lineup while making devices more attainable through trade-in programs and carrier partnerships. IDC also highlighted the growing importance of on-device generative AI features.

While Apple continues to dominate the premium sector, its performance is closely tied to U.S. carriers. A separate report from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) covering June 2024 to June 2025 found that about three-quarters of iPhone sales in the United States occur through AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

CIRP said overall iPhone loyalty is 89%, climbing to 92% among customers who remain with their carrier but dropping to 79% when users switch providers. The report noted that promotions and in-store staff influence remain significant in determining whether buyers choose iPhone or switch to Android alternatives.

Article Link: iPhone Lifts Smartphone Market Shipments as Rivals Stall

 

[t0rqx]

Bit of confusing, previous articles said all sales plummeted now its on the rise?

Next article plummeting again?

 

[Blackstick]

No surprise to me. Fortune 1000 software company. We let our employees bring their own device, some are issued corporate devices… but 3/4 are iPhones.

When given the choice, most people choose an iPhone or already have one. This is just in the US. Abroad, the numbers are inverted — which is why international commenters are like “I don’t get it? I don’t see that many iPhones…”

 

[Andres Cantu]

I’m waiting for the inevitable “super cycle” predictions from analysts. I’m surprised we haven’t seen any yet.

 

[rymc02]

Apple's iPhone shipments are expected to grow nearly 4% in 2025, lifting the entire smartphone industry as rivals face slower demand and regional setbacks, according to new data from IDC.

IDC has raised its 2025 worldwide smartphone forecast, projecting 1% year-over-year growth to 1.24 billion units, compared with its earlier May forecast of just 0.6%. The iPhone is the main driver behind the increase, which is now expected to expand 3.9% this year. IDC noted that without Apple, the global smartphone market would be flat or in decline.

The resilience of the iPhone stands in contrast to weakening Android sales, particularly in China. IDC emphasized that trade-in offers, installment plans, and customer loyalty have enabled Apple to sustain upgrades in an environment where many users now keep smartphones for four years or more. The firm said most iPhone customers remain committed to iOS, a factor that has helped Apple expand its share even as other manufacturers pursue lower-cost volume.

Average selling prices in the smartphone industry are forecast to increase 5% in 2025, with overall value rising 6%. IDC attributed this to a vendor focus on premiumization, supported by promotions and interest-free financing. Apple has leaned heavily on this approach, doubling down on its premium lineup while making devices more attainable through trade-in programs and carrier partnerships. IDC also highlighted the growing importance of on-device generative AI features.

While Apple continues to dominate the premium sector, its performance is closely tied to U.S. carriers. A separate report from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) covering June 2024 to June 2025 found that about three-quarters of iPhone sales in the United States occur through AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

CIRP said overall iPhone loyalty is 89%, climbing to 92% among customers who remain with their carrier but dropping to 79% when users switch providers. The report noted that promotions and in-store staff influence remain significant in determining whether buyers choose iPhone or switch to Android alternatives.

Article Link: iPhone Lifts Smartphone Market Shipments as Rivals Stall

Funny the article doesn't go into detail about how Apple has aggressively discounted their phones in China, offering as much as $350 off iPhone 16's for the last year or so. This lead to a 4% growth YoY in China. Apple's own finance CFO stated that an additional 1% of phones sales was driven by fears of tariffs raising prices causing a rush on buying. I don't think the numbers are quite as good for Apple as a lot of analysts want you to think.

 

[spazzcat]

I was told Apple doesn't know what they are doing by most MR users ...

 

[spazzcat]

Funny the article doesn't go into detail about how Apple has aggressively discounted their phones in China, offering as much as $350 off iPhone 16's for the last year or so. This lead to a 4% growth YoY in China. Apple's own finance CFO stated that an additional 1% of phones sales was driven by fears of tariffs raising prices causing a rush on buying. I don't think the numbers are quite as good for Apple as a lot of analysts want you to think.

If it was fears of traiffs why didn't every company see the same gains as they all would have been stockpilling.

 

[Oestreich Dieter]

LaCk oF ApPle InTeLliGeNcE wIlL DoOm ApPle!

 

[knappeduivel]

I’m waiting for the inevitable “super cycle” predictions from analysts. I’m surprised we haven’t seen any yet.

That was 2024

 

[MacRumorUser78]

As for "its performance is closely tied to U.S. carriers;" I bought my last phone from T-Mobile rather than Apple because they shipped it to my house and it was already set up for my account. Maybe Apple would do the same but I had more confidence that T-Mobile would get the account right and if they didn't the T-Mobile store is closer and less hassle than the Apple Store.

 

[knappeduivel]

LaCk oF ApPle InTeLliGeNcE wIlL DoOm ApPle!

Never mind, Apple is used to being doomed.

 

[joeblow7777]

I’m waiting for the inevitable “super cycle” predictions from analysts. I’m surprised we haven’t seen any yet.

I can see this being an upgrade year for a lot of people. I think that a lot of people have held on to the 13 and 14 models, not seeing much reason to upgrade to the 15 or 16. So I think that after 3 or 4 years a lot of people might be ready for a new device.

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

I was told Apple doesn't know what they are doing by most MR users ...

Yes always the first 20 commenters for every article for decades always tell us how doomed Apple is.

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

I’m starting to think that iPhone Air is going to be a huge hit especially with women. Have a great day!

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Never mind, Apple is used to being doomed.

Doomed and beleaguered.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Yes always the first 20 commenters for every article for decades always tell us how doomed Apple is.

Mainly because Apple continued to focus on the same demographic as the passage of time took them OUT of that demographic. For that sin, they must be punished!

 

[rymc02]

If it was fears of traiffs why didn't every company see the same gains as they all would have been stockpilling.

Ask the CFO, that's what he said, not me.

 

[justanotherdave]

I was told Apple doesn't know what they are doing by most MR users ...

Don’t you mean ‘Cook’ doesn’t know what he’s doing? 😉

 

[Abazigal]

Don’t you mean ‘Cook’ doesn’t know what he’s doing?

Well…

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway offloads more AAPL shares - 9to5Mac

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has again scaled back its stake in Apple. In a regulatory filing this week, Berkshire disclosed...

9to5mac.com

Buffett has been outspoken in his praise of Apple and Tim Cook. “I’m somewhat embarrassed to say that Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I’ve ever made,” Buffett said earlier this year. “Nobody but Steve could have created Apple, but nobody but Tim could have developed it as he has. Steve picked Tim to succeed him, and he really made the right decision.”

 

[SFjohn]

Yes always the first 20 commenters for every article for decades always tell us how doomed Apple is.

Usually it goes on & on for pages on MacRumors Forums. 😂

 

[svish]

Good to see strong demand for iPhones. Expecting the new iPhones to further increase sales. Not surprised to see high customer loyalty.