There is no publicly available longterm data on reliability of various MBP models, so your question cannot be answered empirically. Any answer you are going to get here are purely subjective opinions based on preferences and intuitions of the forum members. It might help you in making a chice, but I doubt that many of these opinions have scientific merit.
All that I can tell you is that the only statistical survey available so far was done in 2009. According to it, around 17% of Apple notebooks are concluded to fail within 3 years of ownership. While this survey is outdated, there is no reason to believe that the things have changes significantly. A conservative projection would put survivability of a premuil-level laptop at around 50% within 5 years of ownership.
All in all: if you want your laptop to last many many years, the single most significant factor is LUCK.