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Is The Smartphone Party Over?

barkomatic said:
I think smartphones are starting to be regarded like an appliance. Yes, it's great for a week to have a nice new refrigerator but after that you kinda forget about it.
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pretty much this. They have matured about as much as they are going to. It is all about apps and software. Battery technology is where the focus needs to me. Give us the battery life of feature phones :)
 
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Remember when phones sat on a table or hung on a wall and we didn't replace them every year when a new one came out? Even when cordless phones came out we didn't replace them every year. Same thing with computers ... the majority of people do not replace them every year.

"Maturing market" just means smart phones are now reaching that same point where almost everyone that wants one, has one.
 
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I think there is some truth to it in terms of an excitement level but at the same time, Apple keeps breaking sales records. There is still plenty of room for Apple to impress it's own fanbase. New screen type, different screen sizes, higher resolutions, true digital zoom on cameras, better sensors for low light, over the air charging, batteries capable of long term charges, stereo speakers, water proof chassis, slimmer bezels, unbreakable glass, on-screen home button, true NFC, etc already. Those are all hardware areas Apple can still improve on while the competition has implemented many of them. So to still be breaking sales records with all of these possibilities for improvement leaves me thinking Apple's future in iPhones is still considerably bright.
 
I think the saturation of the market with smartphones has come close to it's end point. I believe their sales will slightly decrease over the next few years until a lot of the older ones have disappeared. Then we will see an increase again in there sales.

They are being sold in virtually every country now, so there are not many new markets to sell too. It will certainly be interesting to see what unfolds.
 
The news article is nothing new.

Apple is poised better than most to withstand a smartphone slow down. Apple branding is the strongest among all the major phone manufactures.
 
maxsix said:
Is The Smartphone Party Over?

"For Apple, Samsung:
Turn off the phone, the party's over?

A maturing and more saturated smartphone market across the globe "has some grave consequences" for iPhones and high-end Android phones, says research firm IDC."


Let's discuss this.




http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-andr...t-share-samsung-galaxy-s7-edge-phone-fatigue/
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My wife tells me that there was a period of time where she believed that computers were a passing fad that would die quickly.

Where are we now?

Smartphones like computers will simply become another tool we use in our daily lives - if they haven't already. The "ooooohhh" and "ahhhhhh" part is gone so if you mean the party is over from that perspective, then yeah - it's over. But smartphones aren't going to go away.
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lordofthereef said:
Not surprising everyone wants to get into the smart watch market.
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The problem with the smartwatch market IMO, is that there is a very large population out there who have been trained to check the time by turning on the screen of their phones.

Some of them may be attracted to watches for the novelty, but most (like myself) remember the annoyance of having the constricting thing on your wrist all day and prefer to just check the time using their phone.

I have a very nice watch I paid $150 for on sale in 1997. It's a great watch and I love it, but the band needs repair and I haven't been motivated to get it repaired because my phones are always there.
 
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Who wouldn't want to buy new smartphones, cars, clothes, shoes, etc every week/month/year? It is human desire to have newest of everything. The only thing that is stopping us is money. Phones have gotten expensive, and furthermore keeping the phone is becoming a financial burden (monthly data plan). In manufacturers' favor, it is now virtually impossible to continue personal, social and work life without smartphones. However, consumers can hold onto their phones longer.

That doesn't mean people will stop buying phones. Consumers will eventually have to replace their phones at some point (degrading battery, processor not keeping up with new apps, peer pressure, new standardized techs like Apple Pay, etc).

Furthermore, there are still many countries where growth is expected. Sure, it may not be dramatic growth, but a little growth here and there still mounts to profit.
 
e93to said:
Who wouldn't want to buy new smartphones, cars, clothes, shoes, etc every week/month/year? It is human desire to have newest of everything. The only thing that is stopping us is money. Phones have gotten expensive, and furthermore keeping the phone is becoming a financial burden (monthly data plan). In manufacturers' favor, it is now virtually impossible to continue personal, social and work life without smartphones. However, consumers can hold onto their phones longer.

That doesn't mean people will stop buying phones. Consumers will eventually have to replace their phones at some point (degrading battery, processor not keeping up with new apps, peer pressure, new standardized techs like Apple Pay, etc).

Furthermore, there are still many countries where growth is expected. Sure, it may not be dramatic growth, but a little growth here and there still mounts to profit.
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2 year contracts kept me upgrading every year. Easy to drop 200 to 300 on a new phone every two years. Now with the elimination, I dislike the idea of having a higher monthly bill or spending 650 on a phone. So likely I'm going to start keeping my phones much longer than the usual 2 year span.
 
maxsix said:
Is The Smartphone Party Over?

"For Apple, Samsung:
Turn off the phone, the party's over?

A maturing and more saturated smartphone market across the globe "has some grave consequences" for iPhones and high-end Android phones, says research firm IDC."


Let's discuss this.


http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-andr...t-share-samsung-galaxy-s7-edge-phone-fatigue/
Click to expand...

I see smartphones as an Agenda I once carried. Usually, I'm excited about new release smartphones, specifically, Apple. But not anymore; I really don't care whether I upgrade my 5S or 6+ to the SE or iPhone 7. My usual anticipation and excitement is over. I think I'm using my cash to splurge on a 72" screen tv instead, to upgrade my 52" lcd tv over another lackluster design iPhone 7. I might even wait for the iPhone 8 altogether. I don't need the latest iPhone anymore.
 
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I think there is plenty of life and units to be sold for all smartphone manufacturers. Of course IDC, knows better than me, but apples earnings this year will be interesting and we'll see if the party is really over.
 
I do get excited for phones all the time, regardless of OS or brand. The party isn't over, but like others have said, phones are reaching saturation. There is not really a true 100% need to upgrade every year like there was in the past. You can still use an iPhone 4s if you wanted to, and that phone is from 2011! It still gets software updates and it still performs well enough for most people to get by.
 
finner18 said:
I think there is some truth to it in terms of an excitement level but at the same time, Apple keeps breaking sales records. There is still plenty of room for Apple to impress it's own fanbase. New screen type, different screen sizes, higher resolutions, true digital zoom on cameras, better sensors for low light, over the air charging, batteries capable of long term charges, stereo speakers, water proof chassis, slimmer bezels, unbreakable glass, on-screen home button, true NFC, etc already. Those are all hardware areas Apple can still improve on while the competition has implemented many of them. So to still be breaking sales records with all of these possibilities for improvement leaves me thinking Apple's future in iPhones is still considerably bright.
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Off topic but do you mean optical zoom and not "true digital zoom"?

Optical zoom will always be better than digital zoom. Because digital zoom is just zooming into the for example 12mp image captured by the sensor, which reduces that 12mp because you're cutting out all the rest and essentially only getting the center of what the lens can see. Optical is, well, using the optics to zoom and still utilizing the full 12mp of the sensor and full area of what the lens sees.

Optical zoom should be soon. Talk on the dual lens set up on the new 7+ (or 7 Pro/7+ Pro. Whatever they call it) will have I believe the first optical zoom on a phone ever. Up to 3x I believe it'll be capable of.
 
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lagwagon said:
Off topic but do you mean optical zoom and not "true digital zoom"?

Optical zoom will always be better than digital zoom. Because digital zoom is just zooming into the for example 12mp image captured by the sensor, which reduces that 12mp because you're cutting out all the rest and essentially only getting the center of what the lens can see. Optical is, well, using the optics to zoom and still utilizing the full 12mp of the sensor and full area of what the lens sees.

Optical zoom should be soon. Talk on the dual lens set up on the new 7+ (or 7 Pro/7+ Pro. Whatever they call it) will have I believe the first optical zoom on a phone ever. Up to 3x I believe it'll be capable of.
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Ahhhh yes, thank you. I get the two mixed up every time. Optical like they are suggesting could be possible with the dual lens, and beyond.
 
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Be nice to see the party end. Putting manufacturers back against the wall helps draw out true innovation.

The article mentions that in mature markets consumers are turned off by lack of exciting features. Only way to fix that is by adding exciting new features.
 
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Everyone upgrades their phones like every year/two years now so no.

Also places like Brazil, China, India, etc. aren't even close to hitting saturation point.
 
Max(IT) said:
Smartphones are useful tools. They are not going anywhere in the next future....
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Exactly this ^

The internet would have to die, communicating with people would have to die, doing tasks via apps would have to die, time killers like games would have to die, photography would have to die, so many things (not just what's listed) would have to die in order for smartphones to die.

Not likely to happen anytime soon or numerous years to come.

Slow down is sales? Sure. Only so many people will choose to upgrade each year, only so many new comers will purchase their first smartphone each year. But die it will not.
 
I didn't take the article as implying that smartphones are going to die off. More that there was a smartphone Renaissance, which is possibly coming to an end. I can certainly see that being the case, which is why I brought up watches. The watch is the next product that may (or may not) see its Renaissance.
 
It's the same as it was with VCRs, microwaves, videocams, CD and DVD players, and on and on... they all start out very expensive, and then eventually become easy to build & sell for a few dozen dollars.

One big difference with smartphones was that their hidden price was artificially kept high for years via subsidies. This allowed companies like Apple to get unusually high profit margins for this category.

But those times are ending, and there have been large gains in market share from companies selling really nice phones at more reasonable prices.

I think there still are some neat technology advances to come, but fewer people will be able to afford them out of pocket.
 
kdarling said:
It's the same as it was with VCRs, microwaves, videocams, CD and DVD players, and on and on... they all start out very expensive, and then eventually become easy to build & sell for a few dozen dollars.

One big difference with smartphones was that their hidden price was artificially kept high for years via subsidies. This allowed companies like Apple to get unusually high profit margins for this category.

But those times are ending, and there have been large gains in market share from companies selling really nice phones at more reasonable prices.

I think there still are some neat technology advances to come, but fewer people will be able to afford them out of pocket.
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But not really profits. Carrier and manufacturer subsidies will step in where subsidies are slowly being eliminated. As with the auto industry, you can buy your phone outright, lease it or get a loan. Only time will tell where the industry really goes.
 
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