It will be years before we know if Apple Watch is a success

[Rogifan]

Benedict Evans tweeted this chart of iPod sales. iPod was launched in 2001 but didn't really take off until end of 2004.

I think the watch we see today will be very different in a few years. Look at the iPhone...when Steve announced it he called it a wide screen iPod + phone + internet communication device. And he talked up web apps. That is certainly not the iPhone of today. Maybe the Watch does too much and isn't focused enough (though I don't agree with Ben Thompson that it shouldn't have an SDK) right now, but I think it will over time. Apple is taking a different path than Google (extending notifications to your wrist) and that's OK. It would be pretty boring if everyone did the same thing. Let's wait a few years before we write of Watch.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

You can't compare the present day to 2001 as what's expected of Apple is very different today than back in 2001. If it doesn't take off like the iPhone/iPad, people will lump it in the same category as the iPhone 5c, Apple tv, etc.

 

[sracer]

"It will be years before we know if Apple Watch is a success"

Translation: "Don't even think about bringing up sales figures for the first 3 years. If anyone brings those numbers after that, they're pathetically living in the past."

It will be pretty clear, pretty quickly if the aWatch will be a "success" (by whatever "success" is)

 

[Rogifan]

"It will be years before we know if Apple Watch is a success"

Translation: "Don't even think about bringing up sales figures for the first 3 years. If anyone brings those numbers after that, they're pathetically living in the past."

It will be pretty clear, pretty quickly if the aWatch will be a "success" (by whatever "success" is)

Not really. It wasn't until the iPhone 4/4S that iPhone sales (and Apple revenue/profits) really took off. iPad was different. It's sales trajectory was completely different to iPhone. The reason I say it will be years is because it's a version 1 product that will get better over time. The bulkiness will trimmed down, more health related features will be added. More 3rd party apps/use cases. Addition of wifi and gps. The amount of resources and money that Apple is pouring into this (and probably other wearable stuff we don't know about) tells me this isn't just some throw away product that Cook built to satisfy Wall Street's need for something new.

 

[CEmajr]

I agree that it will take 2-3 iterations for the Watch to hit its stride most likely but the media and public have massive expectations of Apple that they didn't have when the iPod or even the iPhone were initially released. Even more added pressure is there since this is the first major product launch of Tim Cook's Apple. They'll need this one to be a hit sooner rather than later.

 

[swedefish]

You can't compare the present day to 2001 as what's expected of Apple is very different today than back in 2001. If it doesn't take off like the iPhone/iPad, people will lump it in the same category as the iPhone 5c, Apple tv, etc.

The ironic thing is that both of those are extremely successful products in their own right, which says something about the world's extreme (and unrealistic) standards for Apple.