Let's Look waaay ahead!

[iapple]

Hi. I was just reading the thread about 2005 predictions, but I'm gonna ask you guys to tell me your 2010 predictions.

Yeah, it's far away, but how do you think computing, including operating systems, applications and hardware will have changed by then.

Jobs said Apple will stick with Mac OS X for the next 10 years (I think..) but how do you think it can become radically different to what it is now? 3D interface? Amazing hardware and SOFTWARE speeds? What will be new then? Terabytes of data is normal? Gigawire standard? I dunno. Any of you guys have an idea what might happen 7 or 8 years from now? Maybe

150 GHz PowerPC G8 by then?
40GHz system busses?
Mac OS X v. 10.9.9.9.9 (or will they call it OS X version 12 or something??)
Will there be a "mouse"?

It's kinda exciting, aint it?


Realistic, and Imaginative suggestions, both are perfectly fineee!

 

[yzeater]

Two Words: Minority Report

 

[jrv3034]

>Two Words: Minority Report

Good call. Even if it doesen't turn out exactly like that movie, the idea that technology as we know it won't even exist is pretty accurate. I mean, I don't think we're gonna be dealing with front side bus specs or bluetooth or any of that. It's gonna be stuff we can't even imagine now. Holographic stuff running on hydrogen fuel cells, or whatever. Remember when people back in the fifties thought that cars of the future would have built-in ironing boards, and toaster ovens? They didn't even know that a GPS was a technological possibility. Just imagine all the stuff that we CAN'T imagine. That's when it really gets interesting.

 

[ESDGraffiti]

>150 GHz PowerPC G8 by then?
40GHz system busses?
Mac OS X v. 10.9.9.9.9 (or will they call it OS X version 12 or something??)

Unfortunately Photoshop will still be dog slow with the new release of ver. 32.0.3

 

[springscansing]

Re: Let's Look waaay ahead!

Originally posted by iapple


Jobs said Apple will stick with Mac OS X for the next 10 years (I think..) but how do you think it can become radically different to what it is now? 3D interface?

Whatever.. Jobs said the Lisa would be the computer for the next 10 years too.

Jobs is a maniac.

 

[mischief]

8 years..... lessee......

Apple has moved on to light-based CPU and granulated the motherboard along the lines of powerbook design. Drives have gone the way of the dodo, replaced my inexpensive flash-ram devices for removeable media and moto/IBM's new non-volatile Ghz RAM chips. Optical drives still present for rearward compatability.

The Powermac itself resembles an updated Cube and serves as a central hub/router/switch/server for innumerable other devices. 802.11g and other wireless standards have freed other Apple devices from the need for a physical connection to each other so the lines between consumer electronics and computing have blurred to the point of academics.

iPod has become a lynchpin in the design. A user keeps all his data, prefs, all the unique things that make 1 machine unique on the iPod and it logs into a given Rendezvous LAN automatically as soon as one is present and known. In this manner any Mac OS equipped machine not currently in use can become "your" machine by mere proximity.

Apple displays have become a single-device UserI/O using either an onscreen dock-deployed keyboard, projected LASER keyboard or a 3rd party bluetooth keyboard. Pointing and Inkwell are supported for both an included stylus or simple fingertip touch-action. The displays have no wires, communicating with the closest base-unit Powermac for CPU revs and deeper WAN access.

OS X has reached a pinnacle of net-savviness..... Rendezvous has converted LAN's into single, clustered meta-desktops in which all machines and devices can be set to behaive as if in one box. WAN support has expanded to reflect many similar features including Web Tunnelling via iChat and web Clustering through those tunnels.

Powerbooks have shifted to become autonomous tablet machines similar to the above mentioned Apple displays but with their own CPU, boot and volume structures.

All machines run via the power handling system used in TiBooks: an internal exotic polymer battery is managed by it's own CPU and ROM architecture so all Apple devices can now function with or without AC for long periods.

A concerted 'Net terrorism attack to M$ in 2006 has crippled Windows' reputation and OS X x86 has eaten into 30% of M$'s former monopoly. Cisco is acquired by IBM. HP is acquired by Sony. Sony drops Windows completely, selling only Mac OS Intel Xeon machines. Dell fails at acquiring Sun and in turn is acquired by M$. Sun is acquired by Apple. Moto's semiconductor dept, formerly owned by a Euro Chip Giant is bought by Apple. IBM buys SGI and begins selling SGI machines running Power 7 chips and Mac OS X Server. M$ buys Mattell. Sony buys Time/Warner from an ailing AOL. Apple buys out AOL. MSN fails. MS .Net fails. M$ drops the OS market from it's core business focus.

 

[cyks]

...one problem with your idea mischief.....

The displays have no wires? Will we have the technology to send power through the air by then? or were you just refering to no cable to the actual computer?
I'm not sure if I'm willing to accept a world without power outlets just yet.

 

[mischief]

Re: ...one problem with your idea mischief.....

Originally posted by cyks
The displays have no wires? Will we have the technology to send power through the air by then? or were you just refering to no cable to the actual computer?
I'm not sure if I'm willing to accept a world without power outlets just yet.

No, of course there'd be charging cradles and bases involved.... but all the signalling would be wireless. I figure the GPU could be onboard and a Gig of onboard RAM could buffer through a "staging" CPU to the IO and GPU. So all the intense tasks get rerouted to the Powermac and more mundane tasks could be handled onboard.

 

[cyks]

just making sure- since a quick look around my room... PMac, 2monitors, tv, DVD player, video game systems....etc... well- if there weren't power outlets/cords.. I'm not sure if I'd feel safe in here.

To get back to the topic though- It's practically imposible to guess the future- yes, someone had mentioned that they thought we'd have ironing boards in our cars by now... and (obviously) we don't.
But I also remember "learning" just 20 years ago when I was a kid that we'd hopefully have flying cars by now. When, in actuallity- besides computers becoming more mainstream- and the internet... not much has really changed.

Better and faster...but still basically the same stuff.

 

[tjwett]

USB 50. FireWire 33. Slot-loading UberDrive which doubles as a sandwich dispenser. Oh, and some huge advances in the interactive net porn industry.

 

[big]

you'll have a chip in your head that will hold all your info...back up from your mac to your scalp via "iKnow"

and Steve Jobs will reveal he is Bill Gates and the fact that Microsoft actually owns Apple
<begin world domination>*insert evil laughter*</begin world domination>

 

[Shrek]

Re: ...one problem with your idea mischief.....

Originally posted by cyks
The displays have no wires? Will we have the technology to send power through the air by then?

Umm, yes. Microwave energy can do this, me thinks. You just beam it up.

 

[solvs]

Re: Re: ...one problem with your idea mischief.....

Originally posted by Shrek


Umm, yes. Microwave energy can do this, me thinks. You just beam it up.

Wasn't Tesla working on some sort of way to send power wirelessly? Of course, I'd rather my Display didn't cook my brain and give me cancer . But to each his own. (I'm just messin' with ya').

There may be fuel celled batteries in our future that can power wireless devices for awhile.

May be able to go a long time between recharges, if ever.

 

[Shrek]

Re: Re: Re: ...one problem with your idea mischief.....

Originally posted by solvs
Of course, I'd rather my Display didn't cook my brain and give me cancer .

I think there's a different kind of microwave that's safer than that--the same kind that will be used in future microwave power plants.

 

[scem0]

Re: Re: Let's Look waaay ahead!

Originally posted by springscansing

Jobs is a maniac.

That is definitely true......

In 10 years......... Hmmm. Maybe not 150 GHz, but I am guessing that we will see:

15-30 GHz systems with a 1-5 GHz system bus. The speed of the processor won't be what makes it fast, it will be the architecture of the chip. Computers will come standard in all cars, refrigerators, and other devices. THat is my guess.

 

[iapple]

well, if we follow that famous rule....

year CPU speeds
2002- 1.25GHz
2003- 2.5GHz
2004- 5GHz
2005- 10GHz
2006- 20GHz
2007- 40GHz
2008- 80GHz
2009- 160GHz
2010- 320GHz
PowerPC G12?!?


Of course, probably this won't happen, and CPU speeds probably won't even be the main factor of the computer's speed because it will be just soooooo fast. This is when SOFTWARE becomes real fun! (Steve Wozniak said this...) When the hardware development seems to have gone far enough, then software is what determines how good a platform or a computer is.

This is when Apple really shines with it's innovative, intuitive applications!!

Just imagine

Apple PowerMacs

Configurations: Instant, More Instant, Super Instant

Since everything happens instantly on most computers, there's no need to even list all the configurations!

 

[rice_web]

Just letting you know...

Moore's law applies to 18 and 24 month spans, not each year. But still, that'd produce some wickedly fast machines as we know them.

I simply hope that clustering is built into 10.3 for the sake of simply buying cheap iMacs while building a network of fast computers. Hehe.... the thought that an iMac DV could run as fast as today's PowerMacs....

 

[cyks]

PowerPC 12? In the past 7-8 years since the introduction of PPC tech... we're still only on G4's...
The same could go for USB 50 and firewire 33.... by 2010, we'd be lucky if we're even 3 or so versions further along then we are today.

Looking back 7 or so years when I bought my first PMac (a 7500)....the standards of today- weren't too far fetched even then...they were just "top end". Correct me if I'm wrong- but the 8500/9500 models could take a gig of RAM... and 60Gig hd's weren't unheard of- just really, really expensive in RAID arrays.

Call me overly consevative, but for the masses- in 7 years... I'd still have to say that not much will change. OSX will be winding down in it's old age- everyone will be complaining that OSY is too slow and they're staying with X until Quark moves (they may be at version 6 by then)...

As for Moore's law? It doesn't apply to processor speeds, but rather the power. of it. Examples being that we took a hit on Mhz when we went to 604's, then to G3's, then to G4's... and now people are already complaining already about IBM's future machines being too slow.

The machines will be extremely quick- by today's standards at least... but- the software will also step up to it- so it won't quite feel as peppy as it should.

I remember waiting years ago 15 minutes on a simple lens flare in Photoshop (this is back when they were "new and cool")... now practically nothing in PS takes more then a blink. I'd expect that the same will hold true in 7 as far as video is concerned...of course- if it did, we'd just load it up that much more with effects and such.


Just think-years ago when Johnny Mnemonic came out...the idea of a 320G hd seemed like an unthinkable amount of space...

 

[WannabeSQ]

screw the specs, I wanna know when Quake 3 will hit the 1000fps mark!

 

[iapple]

good points

Ya, I was half joking about the GHz ratings, and PowerPC G?

We'd be lucky to see a PowerPC G7 I guess. Also, the actual speed will increase, but GHz may not increase thaat much. Quark will not have Quark 7 by then.. agreed

Maybe Apple will have more market share, since Software will count more than hardware. I dunno.. interesting ideas guys! Keep it up!

 

[wdlove]

I attended David Pogue's Feature Presentation on Thursday, July 28th "Toward Mac OS XX" Wish I could have got a handout of his talk, amazing. He could have a best selling CD with the songs he presented, catchy! His predictions to 2020. No longer use a display & no keyboad!

 

[jefhatfield]

we will still have home computers but with larger hard drives, more RAM, shareware apps over the internet, and much faster processors

quantum computing or artificial intelligence will not be here in any of our lifetimes

my friend in the ai field who says the ultimate ai where computers could see a problem, devise a solution, and code a unique language themselves are centuries away at best... a thinking machine with judgement, feelings, and personality may never see the light of day

i did like the movie "ai", those were some real personable robots

 

[Mr. Anderson]

Originally posted by jefhatfield
quantum computing or artificial intelligence will not be here in any of our lifetimes

That all depends on how long we end up living. And things like this are sort of waiting around for a breakthrough. While I would generally agree, I'm not totally sure it couldn't happen, we might get a surprise.

In 10 years though, OLEDs will have hit the main stream, so super thin and light displays will be possible. The nice thing about OLEDs is that you can role them up! Imagine 7' diagonal screen in your living room, several mm thick that you can watch movies on and use as your computer monitor - wireless!

Huge potential, its going to be fun!

D

 

[nixd2001]

Some random items to throw in to the debate:

1) The number of processors will be more relevant - the GHz speeds quoted are likely going to generate too much heat for their benefit. (Think about the Sony/IBM/Toshiba stuff about PS/3, cell computing and what they'll do with $500M).

2) You'll be far more interested in where your data is, how secure it is (both snoop prevention and backup reliability) and how long before the format becomes obsolete (hands up those who can still read files they last modified a decade ago).

3) Cathode ray tubes will be quaint, out-of-date technology.

(That last one isn't very profound I'll admit)

 

[benjaminpg]

Re: Re: Re: ...one problem with your idea mischief.....

Originally posted by solvs


Wasn't Tesla working on some sort of way to send power wirelessly? Of course, I'd rather my Display didn't cook my brain and give me cancer . But to each his own. (I'm just messin' with ya').

He was and it worked to an extent. If you create a circuit known as a Tesla coil and hold up a fluorescent light bulb, it will light up. It's also fairly safe at low voltages. Tesla had the idea that outlets would not be needed. To demonstrate he built something like a three story tall Tesla coil. I suppose it worked, but it also lit a corn field on fire. The other problem is that even the Tesla coil to light up a fluorescent light bulb, requires some very large sparks.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that in its current form Tesla's ideas are not practical.