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"There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share."

Kinda like watching those Jim Cramer clips on The Daily Show. Some of these analysts should learn to not use words like "never" and "sure thing." Had Dvorak said "There is little chance that Apple can be successful," he just looks very wrong. Saying there is NO likelihood makes him look totally stupid.

Dvorak has been around awhile and I think just gets paid for raising a ruckus. I never really liked his PC World columns.
 
Not only is he still around, but he is doing well!

That being said, I like him on the TWiT podcast. I know a lot of people don't, but I think I like him because I get annoyed by Twitter talk as well.
 
"There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share."

"A business this competitive," he says.

18 months later and he completely reverses himself.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/understanding-the-impact-of-the-iphone?dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

The end result was a moribund smart-phone business that looked to be dead in the water or, at best, an odd niche market.
 
Well, at least he gets it right that long term success will be had by establishing a platform and not that latest gizmo.
 
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