My first was a refurbished MBP...
It looked flawless, just as new and pristine as any of the notebooks in the store. I did however, have an ongoing power issue that resulted in Apple giving us a replacement. It was burning up inside no matter what they replaced and batteries would not hold a charge. Mine was an early '07 model that was replaced with a unibody. My sister-in-law has a refurb MBP that is beyond perfect. She's had it almost a year with no issues.
I'd suggest that whatever you do, you should spend the extra for AppleCare. And if money is tight, then get a new one and skip the AppleCare. But my vote no matter what your decision, you should have the AppleCare... it saved our fanny on the MBP.