I'm thinking times are changing.
I remember going to the 2007 and 2008 WWDCs and thinking that Apple was onto something big. I had an app in the App store on Day 1. At the time Windows Mobile (remember that? - before Windows Phone) was all there really was in terms of a smartphone OS. 10 years later, what's a Windows Phone? In fact, let's watch Steve Ballmer deride the iPhone:
.
Microsoft had no smartphone competition and they were overwhelmed by Apple and iOS.
I see something familiar from 2007 Ballmer/Microsoft as I do in 2018 Cook/Apple. It's mostly arrogance. Maybe Microsoft didn't see the smart phone as being as important as other offerings - and accordingly they took a body blow. Today's Apple is similar in that they don't seem to think anything matters except for iPhones. Sure they're tinkering away at ways in which someone can 'compute' on a phone/tablet/mac, but they certainly haven't figured it out, and when they do, you can bet their version will be 'amazing', have a hefty price tag, and require Apple Care and a monthly subscription. Today - they laugh (as I did - and still kind of do) at Chromebooks. You can do so much more with a full OS that you can with a cloud OS.
But I now see the Chromebook (or ChromeOS) as something different - it's a platform that allows you to use the most efficient OS for a job - seemlessly. With Apple, you decide which OS to use when you pick up your hardware - macos or ios. Apple is rightly thinking of how to blur that line with marzipan and beyond. With a chromebook, you already have a version of marizpan-ish offerings. chromeos/android/ and now linux. That's pretty compelling, and is going to get better. In fact, there's really nothing stopping you from running ANY OS virtualized in a lightweight container. On top of that - it's Linux - so very friendly to developers.
Just as Google used containerization and commoditization to combat Amazon and AWS in the server space, I see them kind of leading the effort in the 'personal computing' space. Just as Google inadvertently breathed life into the cloud community, Azure and other competitors in the commoditized server space, they're poised to do the same thing with hardware vendors (and developers?) in the personal computing space. Amazon/AWS was (is) king of the hill in the cloud server space, but now there's thriving competition. I think we've just turned the corner in that we'll see the same thing happen in personal computing. Google's approach to personal computing will be much more inclusive and we'll have many more participants. In contrast, Apple's secretive and 'only we can make sexy stuff' approach is a relic of a bygone era - or maybe they were lucky with a visionary bygone leader. Either way - their way is, IMO - bygone. The result for consumers will be walled gardens with lower walls.
As I write this, I'm thinking Apple peaked in 2015 and they just don't know it yet. While change is inevitable, and where I'm OK with changes like the push to USB C, I find a fundamental flaw in changes that just don't make sense:
- suspect battery life
- suspect keyboards
- force fed touch bars
- waterfalls in my retail stores
It's not just me, I hear podcasts and vlogs question Apple's decisions on a daily basis. I'm saying not only are they right to question those decisions, but they're also not looking up and seeing the 200 ton locomotive of change bearing down on them.
Just my opinion... I guess I'm not an Apple fanboy anymore.
I'm personally more looking forward to the Google fall announcement more than that of Apple. I think that may tip even more next year.
PS: Warren Buffet, I'm available to hire
I remember going to the 2007 and 2008 WWDCs and thinking that Apple was onto something big. I had an app in the App store on Day 1. At the time Windows Mobile (remember that? - before Windows Phone) was all there really was in terms of a smartphone OS. 10 years later, what's a Windows Phone? In fact, let's watch Steve Ballmer deride the iPhone:
Microsoft had no smartphone competition and they were overwhelmed by Apple and iOS.
I see something familiar from 2007 Ballmer/Microsoft as I do in 2018 Cook/Apple. It's mostly arrogance. Maybe Microsoft didn't see the smart phone as being as important as other offerings - and accordingly they took a body blow. Today's Apple is similar in that they don't seem to think anything matters except for iPhones. Sure they're tinkering away at ways in which someone can 'compute' on a phone/tablet/mac, but they certainly haven't figured it out, and when they do, you can bet their version will be 'amazing', have a hefty price tag, and require Apple Care and a monthly subscription. Today - they laugh (as I did - and still kind of do) at Chromebooks. You can do so much more with a full OS that you can with a cloud OS.
But I now see the Chromebook (or ChromeOS) as something different - it's a platform that allows you to use the most efficient OS for a job - seemlessly. With Apple, you decide which OS to use when you pick up your hardware - macos or ios. Apple is rightly thinking of how to blur that line with marzipan and beyond. With a chromebook, you already have a version of marizpan-ish offerings. chromeos/android/ and now linux. That's pretty compelling, and is going to get better. In fact, there's really nothing stopping you from running ANY OS virtualized in a lightweight container. On top of that - it's Linux - so very friendly to developers.
Just as Google used containerization and commoditization to combat Amazon and AWS in the server space, I see them kind of leading the effort in the 'personal computing' space. Just as Google inadvertently breathed life into the cloud community, Azure and other competitors in the commoditized server space, they're poised to do the same thing with hardware vendors (and developers?) in the personal computing space. Amazon/AWS was (is) king of the hill in the cloud server space, but now there's thriving competition. I think we've just turned the corner in that we'll see the same thing happen in personal computing. Google's approach to personal computing will be much more inclusive and we'll have many more participants. In contrast, Apple's secretive and 'only we can make sexy stuff' approach is a relic of a bygone era - or maybe they were lucky with a visionary bygone leader. Either way - their way is, IMO - bygone. The result for consumers will be walled gardens with lower walls.
As I write this, I'm thinking Apple peaked in 2015 and they just don't know it yet. While change is inevitable, and where I'm OK with changes like the push to USB C, I find a fundamental flaw in changes that just don't make sense:
- suspect battery life
- suspect keyboards
- force fed touch bars
- waterfalls in my retail stores
It's not just me, I hear podcasts and vlogs question Apple's decisions on a daily basis. I'm saying not only are they right to question those decisions, but they're also not looking up and seeing the 200 ton locomotive of change bearing down on them.
Just my opinion... I guess I'm not an Apple fanboy anymore.
I'm personally more looking forward to the Google fall announcement more than that of Apple. I think that may tip even more next year.
PS: Warren Buffet, I'm available to hire