With the keynote only some 56 hours away, let's have a look at all the rumours and assess the chances those rumours will come true.
Hardware (existing models)
new PMs: 30% I guess we won't see new PMs until at least late March.
new PBs: 50% New PBs G4 will come but only in about 3-4 weeks. Apple lowered prices in Europe last Tuesday. I don't think they would this for one week only. Unless the new models will be introduced in the US at the same prices as the current models. That could mean Apple lowered prices on the PBs because if they hadn't done so, everyone would haven known for sure that new PBs were coming at MW. No one would have bought a current PB anymore.
new iMacs: 20% As longs as the PMs don't get speed bump, Apple can't speed bump the iMacs, either.
new iBooks: 10% iBooks are the most easy to predict. They always get updated in spring and in autumn. Secondly, an iBook update is only a possibility when PBs get updated, too.
new eMacs: 25% Rumours have it that the eMac will get a G5 later this year so an update at this seems unlikely. Also, the eMac traditionally gets an update in spring and sometimes in autumn but never at MW.
new iPods (4G) 20% Since iPod photos are said not to sell as well as standard iPods, there's a slim chance Apple will introduce a regular 60 GB iPod to cater the needs of those who want a larger iPod but don't need photo capability
new iPod minis (5GB) 99% I guess this is a safe call, there are even rumours some batches of current minis already have a 5 GB drive from Seagate which are reduced to a 4 gig capacity through a firmware block.
new iPod photos: 1% I could only see a price drop but even this seems unlikely.
iPod flash: 70% seems likely, but this is Apple we're talking about...
Hardware new models:
headless iMac/"iHome": 50% So much has been said and written, I guess we have to wait and see. I'm still a bit skeptical despite Apple's suit against TS.
17" display: 10% There have been rumours about this, but I doubt it.
Any other new hardware?
50% Apple manages to surprise us time after time. E. g. the introduction of AiportExpress was a real surprise, no one seemed to have known about it.
Software (already existing):
Tiger (announcement of a shipping date): 30% They will only give us a concrete date if they can ship it within the next two months or so.
iLife 05: 90% This seems very likely, too, as new iApps at MW is already a tradition. Unless iLife 05 will only run on Tiger (which seems unlikely), we'll get iPhoto 5, iMovie, iDVD 5, Garageband 2 and iTunes 5
iTunes 4.7.1 (available for download immediately) 95% iTunes 4.7.1 will support new iPods.
Keynote 2 (standalone) 90%: Very likely, too.
updated versions of pro software: honestly, no idea, possible, though
Software (new)
iWork: 50% I'm also skeptical about iWork. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple just EOLed AW sometime without replacing it. After all, they're improving TextEdit in Tiger and there are so many word processors out there, so Apple should concentrate on other things.
Other (new iApp?): 50% We'll see...
Something, I haven't thought of: 50%
I think it's gonna be an exciting Tuesday
Hardware (existing models)
new PMs: 30% I guess we won't see new PMs until at least late March.
new PBs: 50% New PBs G4 will come but only in about 3-4 weeks. Apple lowered prices in Europe last Tuesday. I don't think they would this for one week only. Unless the new models will be introduced in the US at the same prices as the current models. That could mean Apple lowered prices on the PBs because if they hadn't done so, everyone would haven known for sure that new PBs were coming at MW. No one would have bought a current PB anymore.
new iMacs: 20% As longs as the PMs don't get speed bump, Apple can't speed bump the iMacs, either.
new iBooks: 10% iBooks are the most easy to predict. They always get updated in spring and in autumn. Secondly, an iBook update is only a possibility when PBs get updated, too.
new eMacs: 25% Rumours have it that the eMac will get a G5 later this year so an update at this seems unlikely. Also, the eMac traditionally gets an update in spring and sometimes in autumn but never at MW.
new iPods (4G) 20% Since iPod photos are said not to sell as well as standard iPods, there's a slim chance Apple will introduce a regular 60 GB iPod to cater the needs of those who want a larger iPod but don't need photo capability
new iPod minis (5GB) 99% I guess this is a safe call, there are even rumours some batches of current minis already have a 5 GB drive from Seagate which are reduced to a 4 gig capacity through a firmware block.
new iPod photos: 1% I could only see a price drop but even this seems unlikely.
iPod flash: 70% seems likely, but this is Apple we're talking about...
Hardware new models:
headless iMac/"iHome": 50% So much has been said and written, I guess we have to wait and see. I'm still a bit skeptical despite Apple's suit against TS.
17" display: 10% There have been rumours about this, but I doubt it.
Any other new hardware?
50% Apple manages to surprise us time after time. E. g. the introduction of AiportExpress was a real surprise, no one seemed to have known about it.
Software (already existing):
Tiger (announcement of a shipping date): 30% They will only give us a concrete date if they can ship it within the next two months or so.
iLife 05: 90% This seems very likely, too, as new iApps at MW is already a tradition. Unless iLife 05 will only run on Tiger (which seems unlikely), we'll get iPhoto 5, iMovie, iDVD 5, Garageband 2 and iTunes 5
iTunes 4.7.1 (available for download immediately) 95% iTunes 4.7.1 will support new iPods.
Keynote 2 (standalone) 90%: Very likely, too.
updated versions of pro software: honestly, no idea, possible, though
Software (new)
iWork: 50% I'm also skeptical about iWork. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple just EOLed AW sometime without replacing it. After all, they're improving TextEdit in Tiger and there are so many word processors out there, so Apple should concentrate on other things.
Other (new iApp?): 50% We'll see...
Something, I haven't thought of: 50%
I think it's gonna be an exciting Tuesday