New Purchases: June/October 2007 or January 2008?

[sinstoic]

My friends and I are hardcore PC users for a long time. We didn't like Microsoft Windows Vista due to various reasons. For the time being, Microsoft Windows XP serves us well. Anyways, we will have to gradually shift to Vista and have to buy new computers as our office work requires it and as our old computers can't make the switch. Upgrading our old computers is not an option for us as we would end up replacing most of the components.

We realized that Mac OS with iLife is great for our personal work where as Windows with our custom softwares is best suited for our office work. As Macs can run both operating systems very well, we decided to buy macs as our next computer and install both operating systems and required applications. As we are on the move with professional applications, we finalized on Macbook Pro laptops.

The shift from Core Duo to Core 2 Duo was too fast that many of our colleagues felt that they burnt their hard earned money on Core Duo computers. We having been saving for our new computers from the last January and don't want to end up with an old technology.

We decided to wait until June 2007, in order to get the next generation laptop with Mac OS X Leopard and iLife '07. With Leopard being delayed to October 2007, we are in a dilemma. We are hearing rumors that any new computers/upgrades will be released either with Leopard or after Leopard. With MacWorld in January 2008, does it make sense to make new purchases in June/October 2007? Fortunately, we can wait till January 2008.

Our real question is if at all a new computer/upgrade is released in June/October 2007 what are the chances of them getting upgraded in January 2008? We don't want to experience the Core Duo to Core 2 Duo like scenarios.

In short, should one buy after WWDC 2007 or after Macworld 2008?

 

[bearbo]

you probably want to wait til after WWDC to ask the question... with 2 unknown here it's hard to make a recommendation.

but just for the record, they waited 10 months (from jan 2006 to oct 2006) before upgrading to c2d from cd, that's not a short amount of time, esp not for the PC world.

 

[Sun Baked]

At least with Intel, you know what is coming ... the Santa Rosa update will be the biggie, with some rev. B speedbumps as Intel introduces updated CPUs.

 

[iW00t]

Personally I won't buy a Mac until Macworld 2050, but given that Apple might be bust by then it might not be such a wise move.

 

[Eraserhead]

OS X updates generally cost £89 ($129), and compared to a Windows install are pretty painless to install (It takes about 1 hour and is like installing Office or something, but takes a bit longer...), you can do an Archive and Install and continue to run all your old (Mac) Applications without reinstalling, so if you get the hardware without Leopard it isn't a big deal.

Generally it's best to buy soon after Apple updates the hardware, but it's probably worth waiting a few weeks after to make sure any kinks have been ironed out of the manufacturing process.

Whether that makes it June, October or next January is anyone's guess, though I'd expect an update to Santa rosa by May/June and Penryn (due Quarter 3, 2007) by October/November.

You can look at Intel's roadmap for a rough idea of when updates will be made, and Apple will take 1-2 months after the release to actually release products with the new hardware.

 

[roland.g]

Santa Rosa will be out in May which puts MacBook Pro updates in the June - August timeframe. However, those updates will use the current or slightly faster than current Core 2 Duos. The Santa Rosa update will mean faster Front Side Bus and Robson. Those two things are good in and of themselves but not great. One could easily wait till then, buy and purchase Leopard in October. Just as easily one could wait till October to buy a Leopard loaded machine which rumors indicate may feature full Vista support in Bootcamp.

However, Santa Rosa will really make it's value when Penryns 45nm low power CPU comes out end of 2007/early 2008. These chips advertise significant boost over Merom Core 2 Duo and longer battery life. If you really want to wait for a good computer to have for some time that won't get outdated quickly, then Penryn based MacBook Pros are your answer. But we're talking January to April 2008 for a release.

Personally I am going to get the next revision of the 24" iMac in May-June when they come out, with a plan to sell it in 9-12 months when the Penryn based iMacs are out. Since Macs hold good resale value I know I can sell it for $300-600 less than I pay for it which is not a bad price to remain current and not have to wait either. If that is an option for you, then get a MacBook Pro on the next revision and plan on upgrading again next year.

Do your homework. Check eBay for Core Duo and Core 2 Duo MacBook Pro and watch a few auctions to see what they end up selling for. Do the same again when the new MacBook Pros come out this summer to get an idea of what the last generation is stil selling for. You'd be surprised. A lot of people bought Core Duo iMacs last Jan-Mar and sold them in Sept-Nov after the Core 2 Duos came out and were able to get $200-300 less than they paid for it. Not bad for 8-10 months of 'renting'. If you could rent the lastest and greatest machine for less than $50 a month, less than $600/yr would you.

 

[sinstoic]

Personally I won't buy a Mac until Macworld 2050, but given that Apple might be bust by then it might not be such a wise move.

Ha ha ha!

 

[sinstoic]

you probably want to wait til after WWDC to ask the question... with 2 unknown here it's hard to make a recommendation.

but just for the record, they waited 10 months (from jan 2006 to oct 2006) before upgrading to c2d from cd, that's not a short amount of time, esp not for the PC world.

Oops, I don't know how I missed that information while doing my reasearch. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[twoodcc]

i would say that if a pretty big upgrade comes, especially after Leopard is out, then i would go ahead and buy if you need to. Of course, like everyone says around here, if you can wait, wait. but don't buy until they update the hardware, no matter what you do.

 

[sinstoic]

Hmm! Looks likes most of them are expecting new hardware during June itself. Hope I don't have to wait till Macworld 2008!

 

[0007776]

If you can wait at least wait for the next hardware upgrade, but buy when you need it there will always be rumors of the next greatest update, so buy when you need it and if there is another update soon that you want, you could sell the one that you buy now, and get the new one and only lose a few hundred on it.

 

[tristan]

The Intel updates are coming fast and furious. Kind of like that movie with those fast cars... and the furious driving... what was the name... oh yeah, gone in sixty seconds...

Intel had to play catchup in 2005 and 2006 because AMD was pulling ahead. They ended up releasing a lot of products and yes, things that were start of the art in early 2006 were obsolete by the end of the year.

Intel's still on a tear, but the updates will be a little more regular now, basically new processor architectures every two years, and die shrinks in the off years. 2007 is a die shrink, from 65nm to 45nm. Die shrinks mean nice speed bumps and bigger caches. 2008 will be new architecture.

And chipset upgrades like Santa Rosa will probably happen every year or so. Chipset upgrades usually aren't a big deal, but Santa Rosa is because the onboard graphics processor is supposed to be a big improvement (which will help the MacBook alot), and the bus speed is +50% faster.

So yes, the upgrades will be regular. I think the best time to buy is after a new processor architecture, and the second best time is after a die shrink, and the third best time is after a chipset upgrade. Of course if you're waiting for the next arch, you're waiting until late 2008 most likely.

Also I would plan upgrades around hardware rather than software. Software is easily upgradeable and relatively cheap. Leopard getting delayed is frustrating but in the scheme of things it doesn't matter much.

 

[jotadeo]

The Intel updates are coming fast and furious. Kind of like that movie with those fast cars... and the furious driving... what was the name... oh yeah, gone in sixty seconds...

hehehe...good one! (dontcha hate it when you post a really funny one and then no one else posts after you...you're sitting there waiting for acknowledgement and you get nuthin'. That completely sucks, so I made sure to give you props on the joke).

But there's also some business to discuss...

So yes, the upgrades will be regular. I think the best time to buy is after a new processor architecture, and the second best time is after a die shrink, and the third best time is after a chipset upgrade. Of course if you're waiting for the next arch, you're waiting until late 2008 most likely.

Why do you think late 2008? Isn't Penryn and such supposed to be out late 2007/early 2008? The Macs should have some sort of upgrade (after SR, of course) by May of next year, no?

I'm especially interested in the timing since I'd like to become a member of ADC Student program and take advantage of the one-time hardware discount when Penryn comes out. The thing is that I'm going to have to join soon since I'm finishing up my program this May, though I'll still have a Masters project and the Masters exam to complete before graduating (it's a bit of a gray area regarding acceptance into the ADC St. program...you have to be enrolled in courses, which officially I won't be. So, it's soon or never).
jdo

 

[sushi]

In short, should one buy after WWDC 2007 or after Macworld 2008?

The waiting game is always a hard one to predict. No one really knows when the products will be upgraded. There are rumors about some upgrades around WWDC 2007.

So if there are updates around the WWDC 2007 that suit your needs, then I would consider purchasing then. That way you can begin using and enjoying your new hardware.

MWSF 2008 will still be 7 months away. Many times products announced at MWSF are not available immediately, so you may have to wait another 2-3 months.

 

[Erasmus]

Why do you think late 2008? Isn't Penryn and such supposed to be out late 2007/early 2008? The Macs should have some sort of upgrade (after SR, of course) by May of next year, no?

I'm especially interested in the timing since I'd like to become a member of ADC Student program and take advantage of the one-time hardware discount when Penryn comes out. The thing is that I'm going to have to join soon since I'm finishing up my program this May, though I'll still have a Masters project and the Masters exam to complete before graduating (it's a bit of a gray area regarding acceptance into the ADC St. program...you have to be enrolled in courses, which officially I won't be. So, it's soon or never).
jdo

Penryn is a new design, but it's more of an 'interim' new design. It is more like simply a die shrink than a new design, and Intel recognises that, and classifies it as a die shrink. Nehalem is the new architecture design, and that should be released about a year after Penryn, so late 2008.

Also, you do realise that after joining ADC, you have a full year to use the super purchase??? So you can enrol now, and either buy the SR MBP in May/June, or wait, and most likely get the Penryn notebook at latest early next year.

Depending on how much buying the Santa Rosa model would benefit you, I would say just go for it. It's too long to wait 8-10 months for a new Penryn notebook.

 

[jotadeo]

Penryn is a new design, but it's more of an 'interim' new design. It is more like simply a die shrink than a new design, and Intel recognises that, and classifies it as a die shrink. Nehalem is the new architecture design, and that should be released about a year after Penryn, so late 2008.

I thought Penryn was the new architecture and SR was the interim design. I knew...well, heard that Nehalem was going to be a more significant upgrade. Got it now, thanks!

Also, you do realise that after joining ADC, you have a full year to use the super purchase??? So you can enrol now, and either buy the SR MBP in May/June, or wait, and most likely get the Penryn notebook at latest early next year.

Yep, that's why I'm concerned about timing. I have to join soon since I won't be enrolled in any courses after mid-May. So, that'll take me to around mid-May next year, but if I wanted something "late 2008," then I'd be S.O.L. I'm planning on a post-Penryn release purchase, hence my original Q.

Depending on how much buying the Santa Rosa model would benefit you, I would say just go for it. It's too long to wait 8-10 months for a new Penryn notebook.

I suppose I should have mentioned that I just bought a 2.16Ghz MBP on Friday. It's either still in Shanghai or it's in the air...it was picked up at 7:24pm today (local time, I presume) and then in the details part it says, "Package received after FedEx cutoff." I think that means that it didn't make the flight on time. I hope to have it by Tuesday...woohoo!!!

Anyway, I was waiting for spring 2007, unfortunately, and then when the disappointing news came about I decided to pull the trigger. SR sounds good and all, but not worth waiting for, IMO, and I most certainly do not want another let down this spring (or summer even). So, I got my MBP with the free printer and plunked down 50 smackers for an aussiebag (30 something plus the rest for shipping) and I'm sleeping very little as I keep looking around for MBP accessories, most of which I can't afford. My plan is to sell this new machine when Penryn comes out and then get a new new one.

Btw, I didn't learn about the advantages of ADC until today nor did I know that I would be eligible for such a thing. Otherwise, I would probably have used it for this purchase. I'll just have to trick out my 2008 machine with the ADC discounts.

In any case, we'll see how things pan out, though.

thanks for the info!
jdo

 

[tristan]

Why do you think late 2008? Isn't Penryn and such supposed to be out late 2007/early 2008? The Macs should have some sort of upgrade (after SR, of course) by May of next year, no?

Hehe, glad you liked it.

Penryn is the shrink. Same as Core 2 Duo, only smaller, like Kirstie Allie post-Jenny Craig. Nehalem is the new architecture. And Santa Rosa is the chipset.

So IMO best time to buy is after a new CPU architecture - that's Nehalem, coming out in late 2008. Last one was 10/06, the Core 2 Duo, also known as Merom. My AMD-fanboy coworker used to call it Moron, but who's the moron now, Manju? Yeah, that's right, suck it up. Your network cable's daisy chained through my cubical, you better not mess with me.

Second best time to buy is after a shrink, which is Penryn in late 2007 or early 2008. Last shrink was Prescott in 2/04, which is now seen as a product failure - it never beat AMD, couldn't hit the high clock speeds, and ran super hot. It's basically what put Intel a slump that luckily Steve Jobs saw was just temporary.

And third best time is after a new chipset, which is Santa Rosa, coming out in a few weeks, although of course Apple products may take longer. Last chipset update was Napa in 2006. All of the MBPs and MBs release by Apple use Napa I believe. The next one after that is Montevina, and that's the chipset that will support Penryn and probably Nehalem.

So what do you buy? C2D with Santa Rosa in a few weeks if you need a computer soon, Penryn if you can wait a little, and Nehalam if you can wait a lot.

 

[jotadeo]

So what do you buy? C2D with Santa Rosa in a few weeks if you need a computer soon, Penryn if you can wait a little, and Nehalam if you can wait a lot.

I couldn't wait at all, so I ordered one on Friday (officially "In Transit" as of 12:20pm CDT today...can't wait!!! ...have to wait. ...*sigh* ). You can see my plan in my last post, in case you missed it. The short of it is that I'd like to hold off on the ADC student program as long as I can so that I can get in on Nehalem, if possible. But I think it's going to have to be Penryn--I'll have to look into what late 2008 means, more or less...that might help me decide whether or not to extend my M.S. degree one year and get this CS certificate my school offers.

Thanks for the advice!
jdo

 

[macfriend1]

are there coming any macbooks? last generation was in november 2006. It should take that long for the next version, or am I wrong? I'd say on either June or October (LEO) there are gonna be new macbooks...

 

[Whistleway]

So what do you buy? C2D with Santa Rosa in a few weeks if you need a computer soon, Penryn if you can wait a little, and Nehalam if you can wait a lot.

Yup. Great advice right there. Just to put some timelines. MBP mostly will be updated with SR in less than 2 months and Penryn might on MBP by early next year, Macworld time. And Nehalam would be here with Montevina by next year this time.

With respect to performance, I would imagine SR would have some impact. And Penryn would have some speed improvements. And overall battery life and significant improvements right now would be with Nehalam processor and Montevina chipset.

someone correct me if I am wrong.

 

[jotadeo]

...Just to put some timelines. MBP mostly will be updated with SR in less than 2 months and Penryn might on MBP by early next year, Macworld time. And Nehalam would be here with Montevina by next year this time...

Nehalem with Montevina by this time next year??? Any evidence on this? I'd sure like to see that happen.

Someone correct him if he's wrong and confirm if he's right, please!
jdo

 

[jesteraver]

If you really need the computer get it in June. If you can wait a tad longer wait until October.