If you are planning on buying a computer now, I wouldn't worry about the PPC -> x86 transition too much. I am not an expert in every technical area related to this transition, but here are my random thoughts about it categorized into two sections.
What Apple would like consumers to believe.
- OS X will instantly be just as fast on x86 as it is on PPC.
- All ISV's will be shipping fat binaries of their programs by mid-2006.
- For all other issues Rosetta will work its magic and you won't notice the performance hit.
- Consumers don't know anything about optimizing software for certain hardware instruction sets.
What is likely in reality
- OS X will initially run somewhat slower on x86. While Apple has been planning this for years, many multimedia apps like iLife and the Pro apps are currently optimized for Altivec rather than SSE. Overtime this will change, I'm sure Leopard will optimized for x86 rather than PPC, but that's a ways out there.
- Not all ISV's will ship fat binaries right away. Some will be late at offering x86 compatible binaries, some will cut off PPC binariy support early. Fat binaries will run on either architecture but this ignores optmization for a particular platforms hardware instruction set which can make a significant difference in performace.
- For those old apps that are no longer supported/updated or where it was too painful to convert to a universal binary you'll be stuck with Rosetta. No matter what Steve says, anyone who has worked with emulated environments knows there is going to be a performance hit. The emulation may be rather efficient and I'm sure it varies from app to app. Still, converting the instructions on the fly as the app runs is adding another level of complexity and another set of processes that must constantly be done in order for that app to run. There WILL be a performance hit running PPC binaries on x86.
So what does it mean for buying a PPC Mac or waiting for an x86 Mac? No matter what you do you will experience some pain somewhere a long the line - this is the nature of transitions. How much pain you must endure and how long that pain will last can't be known right now as there are too many variables. Here's my opinion.
Buy a PPC Mac now:
First of all, it's the only type of Mac you can get for the next year. You get a good year of solid PPC only or fat binary (still PPC native) and if any optimization has been done it will be for PPC instruction sets. Then x86 Mac hardware comes out and fat binaries are common with some legacy apps running emulated on x86 for a while, still probably better to have a PPC Mac for first 6-12 months that x86 Mac is out. This is two solid years of PPC Mac performance, then I think it'll get grey for a year or two when x86/PPC are about on par as far as performance and transition frustration - this will of course depend a lot upon what apps you need and what state those apps are in at the time. Ultimately, x86 Mac starts to outshine PPC Mac... but by that time you'll probably be considering an upgrade anyway.
Buy an underpowered PPC Mac now and/or hold out for getting an x86 Mac early on:
You'll have less than your ideal hardware now, or none at all if you completely hold out. You do that for 12-18 months, then you buy that x86 Mac that you've so eagerly been waiting for and find that OS X is actually a little more sluggish on it at first, at least until Leopard is out and maybe gone through a maintenance release or two. Plus, any apps you are running will at best be shipped in fat binary so that they will run on x86, but still will probably be optimized for Altivec. If they aren't universal binaries you'll really take a hit by running them with the magic Rosetta instruction translator that doesn't cost any performace degredation - none!
The x86 Mac will eventually out-shine the PPC Mac, but my guess is that this won't happen for 3-4 years at the earliest. For the next three years I think having a PPC Mac will give you the best performance for the money. At some point in 3-5 years x86 Mac will overtake the PPC Mac in terms of performance and you can decide at that point when it is right for your to upgrade from PPC Mac to x86 Mac. Based on this, I would recommend getting a Mac now - one that you are confident will last you 3-4 years. I think this would be an iMac or PowerMac G5.
Good luck with whatever you decide.