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Next gen media formats

johnnyjibbs

johnnyjibbs

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Sep 18, 2003
2,964
122
London, UK
There's an interesting article on IGN.com about the next gen video formats and who will likely win (link here).

Sony has said that the Playstation 3 will definitely use BluRay discs, the 50-100GB discs being backed as the successor to DVD by Sony, Dell, and a host of other comapnies. The PS3 is said to debut in 2006, so Sony is gambling that BluRay discs will not become Betamax and will also be cheapish to make by then. However, it is my view that this is too soon, but we'll see.

Microsoft is in the tricky situation of wanting to launch Xbox 2 next year (2005) and will also have to soon decide whether to stick with DVD storage media, or jump on board the BluRay or HD-DVD bandwagons. Bear in mind that BluRay and HD-DVD will be very expensive to make still next year, which will push the cost of the console up considerably. However, sticking with DVD could be risky if the PS3 comes out a year later ready for next-gen video format playability and a more powerful console.

Nintendo also has to decide, but it is unfortunate that I reckon my favourite game maker will produce a console that will not play movies and will probably be behind - based on a proprietary DVD format again. However, that console is not due for release until the same time as PS3.

What do you guys think will happen? Personally, I don't think the markets are ready for a new DVD format as DVD sales have only just overtaken VHS sales this last year. Remember, we're talking about the masses here - I expect people to clinch hold of DVD for a good decade or so yet. Better TVs may be able to expose the limitations with DVD but most people don't upgrade TVs for many years and the most popular TVs still only handle 640x480 resolutions.

I just don't think that the masses are ready to re-purchase all their movies again - especially when DVDs are still pretty expensive. And I'm betting most people won't have heard of BluRay yet either. Then again, if Sony plays this one right, they could be putting relatively inexpensive BluRay video players into many people's homes in just two years time and it could be the PS3 that gives BluRay the kickstart it needs. But then maybe Nintendo will come back and leave the PS3 in tatters. We could have the extrodinary situation when the PS3 needs BluRay to survive or succeed and BluRay needs PS3 to make it - we shall see I guess.

Then of course there's the codec wars - H.264 or Windows Media 9 V01? I think we all know what people here would prefer ;)

Finally of course, we've then got the prospect of BluRay players in Macs. Do you think that will happen and when?

Thoughts?
 
johnnyjibbs said:
There's an interesting article on IGN.com about the next gen video formats and who will likely win (link here).

Sony has said that the Playstation 3 will definitely use BluRay discs, the 50-100GB discs being backed as the successor to DVD by Sony, Dell, and a host of other comapnies. The PS3 is said to debut in 2006, so Sony is gambling that BluRay discs will not become Betamax and will also be cheapish to make by then. However, it is my view that this is too soon, but we'll see.

Microsoft is in the tricky situation of wanting to launch Xbox 2 next year (2005) and will also have to soon decide whether to stick with DVD storage media, or jump on board the BluRay or HD-DVD bandwagons. Bear in mind that BluRay and HD-DVD will be very expensive to make still next year, which will push the cost of the console up considerably. However, sticking with DVD could be risky if the PS3 comes out a year later ready for next-gen video format playability and a more powerful console.

Nintendo also has to decide, but it is unfortunate that I reckon my favourite game maker will produce a console that will not play movies and will probably be behind - based on a proprietary DVD format again. However, that console is not due for release until the same time as PS3.

What do you guys think will happen? Personally, I don't think the markets are ready for a new DVD format as DVD sales have only just overtaken VHS sales this last year. Remember, we're talking about the masses here - I expect people to clinch hold of DVD for a good decade or so yet. Better TVs may be able to expose the limitations with DVD but most people don't upgrade TVs for many years and the most popular TVs still only handle 640x480 resolutions.

I just don't think that the masses are ready to re-purchase all their movies again - especially when DVDs are still pretty expensive. And I'm betting most people won't have heard of BluRay yet either. Then again, if Sony plays this one right, they could be putting relatively inexpensive BluRay video players into many people's homes in just two years time and it could be the PS3 that gives BluRay the kickstart it needs. But then maybe Nintendo will come back and leave the PS3 in tatters. We could have the extrodinary situation when the PS3 needs BluRay to survive or succeed and BluRay needs PS3 to make it - we shall see I guess.

Then of course there's the codec wars - H.264 or Windows Media 9 V01? I think we all know what people here would prefer ;)

Finally of course, we've then got the prospect of BluRay players in Macs. Do you think that will happen and when?

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Blu-Ray will get a HUGE jumpstart with the release of Sony's PS3. Nintendo's GameCube successor will bypass HD-DVD and use MiniBlue instead - just like the current GameCube discs, with a capacity of around 25 GB instead of around 1 GB. Apple will most likely pioneer the Blu-Ray format, putting drives for it in their PowerMacs first in late 2005, then trickling down to the other Macs - every Mac line will have Blu-Ray by the end of 2006. Apple's endorsement of H.264 will also give it a boost, but Microsoft has pretty much blocked H.264 from being used in DVD players and similar devices already by thumbstamping WM9 V01 into a "standard". That doesn't mean that H.264 will fade away - it will become the codec of choice for Internet movie delivery.
 
BluRay is incompatible with DVD right. However, do you see so-called "combo" drives coming out so that you can play BluRay and DVD and CD discs in the same drive? I'd imagine slot-loads of those would not be out for a long while yet. Remember, it was late 2001 before the TiBook got DVD-reading AND CD-burning capabilities in one.
 
johnnyjibbs said:
BluRay is incompatible with DVD right. However, do you see so-called "combo" drives coming out so that you can play BluRay and DVD and CD discs in the same drive? I'd imagine slot-loads of those would not be out for a long while yet. Remember, it was late 2001 before the TiBook got DVD-reading AND CD-burning capabilities in one.
Click to expand...
Such a combo drive would be fairly simple to do (just add a third laser) - such a drive would even read CDs. Remember, DVD drives have two lasers already - one for DVD access and the other for CD access.
 
johnnyjibbs said:
BluRay is incompatible with DVD right. However, do you see so-called "combo" drives coming out so that you can play BluRay and DVD and CD discs in the same drive? I'd imagine slot-loads of those would not be out for a long while yet. Remember, it was late 2001 before the TiBook got DVD-reading AND CD-burning capabilities in one.
Click to expand...
well, in a tray-loading drive that would work, but blu-ray discs are 1/5th the height of dvds and cds so a slot loader would be really hard to implement i'd imagine
 
homerjward said:
well, in a tray-loading drive that would work, but blu-ray discs are 1/5th the height of dvds and cds so a slot loader would be really hard to implement i'd imagine
Click to expand...
You mean, like wafer thin?
 
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