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Next MBP 16" update will coincide with Back to School promo?
- Thread starter hohohong
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Very unlikely - the next several 16" updates will be new CPUs and GPUs only (maybe WiFi6, since that could be on a chip that gets changed with the CPU). The way Apple works on these things is that they introduce a new machine (the 16" MBP) every 3-4 years for portable Macs (every two years for the iPhone, generally around 3 years for iPads, less often for desktop Macs - the present iMac is a 2014 design, and the trashcan Mac Pro is famously 2013).
This is probably really the 2020 MBP with 2019 CPUs, moved forward because Apple got tired of dealing with the keyboard issue. It was probably once scheduled to come out between April and June of next year with Comet Lake (yet another 14nm++++++ Skylake derivative, may have one 10-core model) CPUs - it'll get a bump around then that adds only Comet Lake. The big deal will be its 13-14" sibling.
In between, we get spec bumps that stay with the same design. We might see Face ID and a better webcam in a mid-life kicker to the 16" MBP. Those are small enough requests that it could be two years (the 2018-19 15" MBP is a slightly different design from the 2016-17).
This is probably really the 2020 MBP with 2019 CPUs, moved forward because Apple got tired of dealing with the keyboard issue. It was probably once scheduled to come out between April and June of next year with Comet Lake (yet another 14nm++++++ Skylake derivative, may have one 10-core model) CPUs - it'll get a bump around then that adds only Comet Lake. The big deal will be its 13-14" sibling.
In between, we get spec bumps that stay with the same design. We might see Face ID and a better webcam in a mid-life kicker to the 16" MBP. Those are small enough requests that it could be two years (the 2018-19 15" MBP is a slightly different design from the 2016-17).
You seem to have a good understanding of Apple’s history. When do you expect a 13-14 inch MacBook Pro refresh? I am holding out for a new keyboard on a smaller sized Pro.
My suspicion would be in March or so, maybe as early as January or as late as WWDC in June...
I'm basing this on only a few datapoints when redesigns of the two models went off-sync. The original MacBook Pro came out in January of 2006, and a 17" variant followed in April. The Unibody 15" was October of 2008, and a 17" variant followed in January of 2009. The 15" Retina was early June of 2012, with the 1 3" following in late October. The Touch Bar models were released together in October 2016. This suggests they're often a few months apart - Apple prefers March to February for introductions. Thunderbolt got added to the whole MacBook Pro line in February 2011, then there was a minor (100 mHz) speed bump to the MBPs in February 2013 - and we haven't seen a February Mac since - while some Mac or another seems to get refreshed every March... January seems a little too soon, given that the 16" was a November intro.
If I had to guess the schedule:
March 2020: 13" Scissor MBP (the more I think about it, the more I think it may not actually be 14")
June 2020 shortly before WWDC: Minor speed bump to the 15" Scissor MBP (this was supposed to be the redesign, but Apple got tired of dealing with butterfly complaints and moved it up - Comet Lake is an easy drop-in).
June 2020 maybe at WWDC: Redesigned iMac and/or iMac Pro - not sure if these will be together or separate.
What's in the 13-14" Pro?
Near certainty: Scissor keyboard
Near certainty: New CPUs (may be Ice Lake, may be Comet Lake)
Probable: Storage bump from 128 GB on the lower model and 256 on the upper to 256/512 - maybe a 4 TB CTO gets added(???)
Probable: 32 GB RAM optional on at least some models.
Possible: 14" screen. The 13" is more size and weight sensitive than the 15", and it doesn't have the thermal issues, so there's probably a lot of resistance to making it bigger or heavier.
I'm basing this on only a few datapoints when redesigns of the two models went off-sync. The original MacBook Pro came out in January of 2006, and a 17" variant followed in April. The Unibody 15" was October of 2008, and a 17" variant followed in January of 2009. The 15" Retina was early June of 2012, with the 1 3" following in late October. The Touch Bar models were released together in October 2016. This suggests they're often a few months apart - Apple prefers March to February for introductions. Thunderbolt got added to the whole MacBook Pro line in February 2011, then there was a minor (100 mHz) speed bump to the MBPs in February 2013 - and we haven't seen a February Mac since - while some Mac or another seems to get refreshed every March... January seems a little too soon, given that the 16" was a November intro.
If I had to guess the schedule:
March 2020: 13" Scissor MBP (the more I think about it, the more I think it may not actually be 14")
June 2020 shortly before WWDC: Minor speed bump to the 15" Scissor MBP (this was supposed to be the redesign, but Apple got tired of dealing with butterfly complaints and moved it up - Comet Lake is an easy drop-in).
June 2020 maybe at WWDC: Redesigned iMac and/or iMac Pro - not sure if these will be together or separate.
What's in the 13-14" Pro?
Near certainty: Scissor keyboard
Near certainty: New CPUs (may be Ice Lake, may be Comet Lake)
Probable: Storage bump from 128 GB on the lower model and 256 on the upper to 256/512 - maybe a 4 TB CTO gets added(???)
Probable: 32 GB RAM optional on at least some models.
Possible: 14" screen. The 13" is more size and weight sensitive than the 15", and it doesn't have the thermal issues, so there's probably a lot of resistance to making it bigger or heavier.
I also bet on sometime between April and June, close to comet lake release. Also, I expect that schedules will change a bit, now that the new design group seems to use a more pragmatic approach to releases. On particular, I expect new MBP releases to closely follow new hardware releases.
It sounds like you have all of the knowledge behind timelines and upcoming rumors. I’m trying to fill in the gaps of a post I just made regarding upcoming MacBook Pro and iPad rumors. Is this correct/complete?
We know that we’re expecting:
- A triple lens camera iPad Pro and dual lens camera iPad (2020)
- An ARM Mac (2020 or 2021)
- A mini LED MBP and iPad Pro (late 2020 to mid 2021)
We think we can expect but have not seen any rumors as of yet:
- A refreshed 13 or 14” MacBook Pro with the new scissor switch keyboard (2020, perhaps)
- A refreshed MacBook Air with the new scissor switch keyboard (2020, perhaps)
No, I don't think it's safe to assume that. Most companies time their products to avoid back to school sales, i.e., why discount a new/hot product.
I'd expect a tiny update to the 16" (e.g. Comet Lake) even before back to school. Comet Lake will be a very modest speed bump of at most a few hundred megahertz (100 wouldn't surprise me), might feature a 10-core model (with a clock speed drop), and might feature a newer technology or two (WiFi 6, LPDDR4 or the like).
At the earliest, a 10nm 16" is a year behind that. There may be another 14nm generation (Rocket Lake) in between. If Rocket Lake exists for H-series CPUs, it'll be another Comet Lake level upgrade.
If you like the 16", go ahead and buy it (I'm about to order mine in the next few days). Anything at all significant is at least a year and a half away (earliest possible date for 10nm, also the earliest Apple might make minor design changes like a new webcam).
Either a year and a half away or two and a half years away, there is likely to be a somewhat significant update (10nm, perhaps minor design changes). Something like the jump from 2017 to 2018 is what I expect... That time, we got cores, the T2 and (in a slightly staggered rollout a couple of months later) Vega.
At the earliest, a 10nm 16" is a year behind that. There may be another 14nm generation (Rocket Lake) in between. If Rocket Lake exists for H-series CPUs, it'll be another Comet Lake level upgrade.
If you like the 16", go ahead and buy it (I'm about to order mine in the next few days). Anything at all significant is at least a year and a half away (earliest possible date for 10nm, also the earliest Apple might make minor design changes like a new webcam).
Either a year and a half away or two and a half years away, there is likely to be a somewhat significant update (10nm, perhaps minor design changes). Something like the jump from 2017 to 2018 is what I expect... That time, we got cores, the T2 and (in a slightly staggered rollout a couple of months later) Vega.
I would think the same. But macbook pro update was released right at the start of BTS promo 2019. And between now and summer 2020, is another 8 months? Normally there's update between 8~10 months?