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Nikon D3x Possibly Soon

Digital Skunk

Digital Skunk

macrumors G3
Original poster
Dec 23, 2006
8,108
959
In my imagination
http://www.robgalbraith.com/bins/content_page.asp?cid=7-9206-9252

I say possibly because I know that Nikon is at production capacity with the addition of the D300, D3, and D60. The D3 is still being produced with the D2xs and I think the D2hs and the F6, so their professional body factory is running at full speed. This new sensor however leads me to believe that either a full framed professional Sony Alpha body is due by years end or PMA 09 and/or a Nikon D3x announcement at around the same time.

Or, Nikon could utilize their smaller consumer body facilities to produce a D300x, 5D/6D competitor. Sounds good.

By the way... I am glad that the D300 and D3 are on such a long back order list. The new Nikon lenses are a nice addition and I will be purchasing all of them sans the PC models, and some Tokina and Sigma lenses as well. I think I can keep shooting with my D200 and D2hs for a while.
 
Kamera RAWr said:
The D300 seems readily available on Amazon :)
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Yeah but not at my local camera shop. I need to support the little guys in my town. Most the photogs in Baltimore are buying them up and supporting them as well, so my name is probably number 10 or something on the list.

I am very upset that it's only 12 bit, but hopefully the proposed specs of the chip don't meet the announced specs. I hope that the future FX cameras from Sony and Nikon are 24.5MP at 6.3 fps though.
 
Digital Skunk said:
Yeah but not at my local camera shop. I need to support the little guys in my town.
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I'd support a local camera shop, but there aren't any where I live. I suppose I could order from Ritz Camera here at the mall though :p.

Digital Skunk said:
I hope that the future FX cameras from Sony and Nikon are 24.5MP at 6.3 fps though.
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Sounds very nice, but thats for more than this amateur photographer needs. :eek:
 
Kamera RAWr said:
Sounds very nice, but thats for more than this amateur photographer needs. :eek:
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The great part about the professional stuff getting more and more advanced is the trickle treatment the consumer stuff gets. Take the D60 for instance. Now it has the same Expeed processor as the D3 and D300. I am sure the D80 replacement will be a D300 Lite and Nikon may put out that 5D replacement we have been looking for once the D300 sales/production evens out.

More importantly for me, I want to know when the first sub-$2000 FX body comes to the market. Not that we need a NEW model that is underneath the 5D/6D and the 1Ds Mark III, but when are the prices of FX bodies going to plummet like the DX/cropped sensor ones have.

It's more of a "I can't wait to see full frame become affordable for most" than a "I can't afford full frame so when will yadda yadda yadda..."

Also, I hope to see more full framed bodies with professional features to go along with their very respectable IQ.
 
Indeed it will be interesting to see when a FX sensor makes it in to a sub $2000 camera. I'll probably pick up a D300 sometime this year or maybe even next year. I spent a bit of money on DX glass, so not sure I want to even think about FF :p.
 
Kamera RAWr said:
Indeed it will be interesting to see when a FX sensor makes it in to a sub $2000 camera. I'll probably pick up a D300 sometime this year or maybe even next year. I spent a bit of money on DX glass, so not sure I want to even think about FF :p.
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Not trying to keep my thread at the top, but I can't resist an invitation to a conversation :D

That's the biggest issue with many shooters that do want to go FF. I remember a lot of hobbyist shooters wanting a 5D for $2700, but all they had in their coffers was $3000 or $4000. Not enough to cover the costs of the body and a good piece of L series glass. They were better off getting the 30D and an amazing lens and flash to back it up. With the D3, you are looking to spend close to $10,000 if you don't have any GOOD FX lenses to accompany it. And I faced that same problem.

The FX lenses in my arsenal include a 60 mm Macro, a 50 mm 1.8 and a 70-200 VR... nothing else. I have more DX lenses but even those weren't top of the line. I want to stop borrowing DX lenses from my job to shoot with and I want to revamp some areas of my system, so I am going to take the time to grab some new DX and FX lenses and possibly a D300 and D60 to accompany the D200, D2hs, D80, and D50 sitting in my cabinet.

To get back on topic, I am sure that the D3x will be priced a bit over the 1Ds when it debuts, maybe $9000 or so, and have many of the advancements of the D3. Will Nikon make the sensor themselves like in the D3, or piggy back off of the Sony sensor ala the D300?
 
Kamera RAWr said:
I'm pretty amateur so my question may appear that way as well, but... who is to gain most from the advances of a D3x? 24mp is quite a bit. Studio photogrphers or?
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Pro studio photographers will probably just shoot medium format or large format film.

Either would look better than anything you'd get out of 35mm digital.
 
On a similar topic, I'm still surprised there hasn't been a 5D Mark II released...one would think Canon would be getting nervous that Nikon now has a full-frame pro model, and within a year or so will likely have a 5d-ish FX size, and a higher resolution model using this latest Sony chip (or something similar).

They don't own that segment any more, but they don't seem to be acting accordingly (sorry, I forgot the 1D III...that worked out well for them). :rolleyes:

I went back and forth from Nikon to Canon (I'm not a pro, but am starting to bump against the limits of the equipment I have, and have started doing semi-pro gigs on the side)...I've decided to upgrade to the next iteration of a smaller body full-frame model from either company (if I'm going to throw all my money away, I'd prefer to be at least a bit more future-proofed).

Cheers, Colin.
 
colinmack said:
On a similar topic, I'm still surprised there hasn't been a 5D Mark II released...one would think Canon would be getting nervous that Nikon now has a full-frame pro model, and within a year or so will likely have a 5d-ish FX size, and a higher resolution model using this latest Sony chip (or something similar).

They don't own that segment any more, but they don't seem to be acting accordingly (sorry, I forgot the 1D III...that worked out well for them). :rolleyes:

I went back and forth from Nikon to Canon (I'm not a pro, but am starting to bump against the limits of the equipment I have, and have started doing semi-pro gigs on the side)...I've decided to upgrade to the next iteration of a smaller body full-frame model from either company (if I'm going to throw all my money away, I'd prefer to be at least a bit more future-proofed).

Cheers, Colin.
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I agree and the long wait for the 5D upgrade has me thinking that Canon has something good up their sleeve for the 6D or 5D Mark II. The body is aging and the IQ is on par with other offering from the market. The price really isn't justified IMHO. Hopefully Canon will make the new body a real performer in AF and shooting speed, two areas that suffered do to the sensor size. And hopefully if/when Nikon makes their D300FX they won't make the same mistake Canon did, put out a body with basically consumer features but it has a FX sensor in it.

If you are going back and forth Colin, and you want to invest a lot of cash, make sure you get the system that has that one feature/lens that you are looking for. Bodies don't matter and change often as you can see. Shooters that switched over to another system without checking out the road map of their previous system are usually left high and dry because their new system doesn't give them that one tool they need, or they incur more expenses to do the same tasks.
 
colinmack said:
On a similar topic, I'm still surprised there hasn't been a 5D Mark II released.
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Big
announcements
will
come.

(or maybe not)

They don't want to pre-announce everything before the start of PMA 2008, do they? They also don't want to introduce all their new products in one shot. People are still talking about how great the 450D is compared to the Nikon D60. Let that settle down before adding more fuel to the fire.

Also, Nikon's FF camera is coming "soon"? Depends on what you mean by soon. If soon means "when Sony mass produces these sensors and is ready to sell them to Nikon", then yes, I guess you're right. Lets wait 9 months.
 
Digital Skunk said:
Kamera RAWr said:
Indeed it will be interesting to see when a FX sensor makes it in to a sub $2000 camera. I'll probably pick up a D300 sometime this year or maybe even next year. I spent a bit of money on DX glass, so not sure I want to even think about FF :p.
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That's the biggest issue with many shooters that do want to go FF. I remember a lot of hobbyist shooters wanting a 5D for $2700, but all they had in their coffers was $3000 or $4000. Not enough to cover the costs of the body and a good piece of L series glass. They were better off getting the 30D and an amazing lens and flash to back it up. With the D3, you are looking to spend close to $10,000 if you don't have any GOOD FX lenses to accompany it. And I faced that same problem.
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I'll be surprised if a full-frame sensor makes it into a sub-$2000 camera anytime in the near future - unless the camera is significantly crippled in some way (which admittedly Canon has been willing to do in the past). I'd guess a "D300FX" would probably be closer to $3000; but I'd love to see it happen. If the D3 were smaller, I know I'd likely have been willing to pay the premium... but it's just too big and too heavy to be practical for me.
 
Lovesong said:
You know, I'd hate to burst everyone's bubble, but it would appear that the new Sony CMOS sensor will be going into the Sony pro model (linky).

That really shouldn't be a surprise, given the fact that Nikon designed their own CMOS for the D3.
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Yeah, it's great to. I was thinking that Nikon may take the D300 and other consumer camera bodies route and get Sony's chip in the D3x, D300FX. I would rather like Nikon to build the chip themselves if Sony is going to be using it in their Flagship body.

The proposed Sony may be a market changer for Sony and the camera business. By years end, Sony, Nikon, and Canon will have FX cameras all priced under $6000.

I can see FX cameras under $2000 some time in the near future, around this time next year probably. If Nikon can set the price of the D3 at $5000 given it's features then I am I sure they can get the manufacturing methods to a point where even a 16-20MP or so chip can be made, and placed inside a D300 type body for slightly under $2000.... or maybe a little above, say $2299 or something.
 
Digital Skunk said:
I can see FX cameras under $2000 some time in the near future, around this time next year probably. If Nikon can set the price of the D3 at $5000 given it's features then I am I sure they can get the manufacturing methods to a point where even a 16-20MP or so chip can be made, and placed inside a D300 type body for slightly under $2000.... or maybe a little above, say $2299 or something.
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I sure wouldn't hold my breath. The economics don't make sense- if Nikon can get $5k for a D3, and if the sensor is the single-biggest component cost for the camera, and if a larger sensor decreases yield-per-wafer significantly, and Nikon's selling D3's like hot cakes WHY would they possibly try to build something under $2000 when they're still around a year from the D3 launch and haven't monetized enough to pay for the production line tooling and eeked out great profits yet?

It may be that the market moves us to around $2750-$3500 in terms of competition, but I can't see any of the players wanting to move under $2k. Canon's the only one who wouldn't have to massively re-tool and they're losing enough market share at the low end (well, technically they're losing the low-end growth share) that I can't see them wanting to take a profitability hit either.

People who want the "full frame" experience want it enough that making them pay a premium works out economically to offset the sensor yield and cost issues. Even if you start stitching together smaller sensors, you're still going to up the sensor costs.

Half your ASP without an equivalent decrease in costs and your margins start to suck- Everyone trying to play the game is going to decrease the available fab capacity for the larger sensors. I'm not sure the process scales up- I think you're talking either existing or new fab for the larger chips, especially if the wafers are bigger (I'm not sure how the current fabs source what wafers.)

With the D3 and D300 out the door, and the new camera in the works, another pro or prosumer body in that timeframe is a heck of a lot of expense for something that would cut into D3 and D300 sales. I just don't see a business rationale for it, they're doing really well selling what they're making, and have been for the D2x and D200 as well.

Granted, they're doing as much consolidation in production to reduce costs as they can, and the component re-use will help with the non-sensor costs, but the sensor is still the single-biggest cost.

Sony might do a lower-cost body because they don't have the market share, but I'd expect Nikon and Canon to try to keep things relatively close to where they are with some competitive breaks as they pay for the tooling and as the economy starts to affect sales, but I wouldn't expect it to come down to $2k before the D300 replacement is ready to come out, and even then, I think it's not very likely.
 
$2000??? Ok, that's another case of wishful thinking. "Some time in the future" is, again, correct. Come back in 3-4 years.

In America, the D3 costs $5000+, correct? Do you think all of those D3 customers would buy a D3 successor (a D4??) if Nikon came out with a D300/D400 FX for $2000? Or even $2500??? Not within the next few years. The D300 is comparable enough to the D3 that many potential D3 customers would look at the $2000-3000 price difference and avoid the D3.

At least the D300 has the option of taking off the battery grip. Not everyone wants to carry around a D3-sized camera for casual shooting. This makes the D300 smaller and more flexible than the D3.

What compuwar said about full frame is correct. I don't really see Canon or Nikon introducing $2000 full frame cameras because they don't need to. In fact, neither does Sony or Pentax. The only reason the 5D is so cheap now is because, in relative terms, it's an ancient DSLR. It's still a good camera, but it's ancient.
 
Plymouthbreezer said:
Why so many? If I were you, I'd use the money you spent on the D80 and D200 to get a D2Xs or D3... And I suppose a good low-end body like a D60 for the times you don't need the cumbersome pro models.
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I have those bodies because they were the progression of my system. Got the D70, then it was destroyed from heavy use after two years, then obtained the D200 and D50, then the D80 and finally got the D2hs from the job. I don't have the glass for it because i can just grab it from the work pool, but having my own is something I am trying to do in the future.

Abstract said:
$2000??? Ok, that's another case of wishful thinking. "Some time in the future" is, again, correct. Come back in 3-4 years.

In America, the D3 costs $5000+, correct? Do you think all of those D3 customers would buy a D3 successor (a D4??) if Nikon came out with a D300/D400 FX for $2000? Or even $2500??? Not within the next few years. The D300 is comparable enough to the D3 that many potential D3 customers would look at the $2000-3000 price difference and avoid the D3.

At least the D300 has the option of taking off the battery grip. Not everyone wants to carry around a D3-sized camera for casual shooting. This makes the D300 smaller and more flexible than the D3.

What compuwar said about full frame is correct. I don't really see Canon or Nikon introducing $2000 full frame cameras because they don't need to. In fact, neither does Sony or Pentax. The only reason the 5D is so cheap now is because, in relative terms, it's an ancient DSLR. It's still a good camera, but it's ancient.
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I know, I pushed the price up to around $2500. Under $2000 was a bit too low.
 
Digital Skunk said:
http://www.robgalbraith.com/bins/content_page.asp?cid=7-9206-9252

I say possibly because I know that Nikon is at production capacity with the addition of the D300, D3, and D60. The D3 is still being produced with the D2xs and I think the D2hs and the F6, so their professional body factory is running at full speed. This new sensor however leads me to believe that either a full framed professional Sony Alpha body is due by years end or PMA 09 and/or a Nikon D3x announcement at around the same time......
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So there might be a possibility that Nikon will not develop the 24megapixels full frame sensor themselves, and uses the SONY's?
 
YGoh said:
So there might be a possibility that Nikon will not develop the 24megapixels full frame sensor themselves, and uses the SONY's?
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It's possible that they may develop it themselves given the near perfect image quality of the D3 in all ISO ranges... but Nikon has done a lot of work with Sony sensors in the past and still. The only chips that Nikon has that they made themselves are the D3 and the D2hs. The D2x's sensor was a joint venture by Sony if my memory serves me right.

Either way, many of Nikon's sensors in their pro and consumer bodies are from Sony, and Sony uses them in their bodies as well, ala the D300/Alpha models on the market right now.

Nikon could use the Sony sensor if it proves to be worthy. Or they could at least use it in their version of the Canon 5D.
 
I could see Nikon lowering prices on the D60 and the D300 maybe even making a successor to it. If sony can make there High chips decent that would mean we could definitely see a D4 coming within a year or two which would make the FX chips cheaper maybe we could have a D300/400 for Below 3000 maybe even 2500 this is all good news if that doesn't happen then maybe Canon will be buying up these censors and using it for the D5.
 
Digital Skunk said:
It's possible that they may develop it themselves given the near perfect image quality of the D3 in all ISO ranges... but Nikon has done a lot of work with Sony sensors in the past and still. The only chips that Nikon has that they made themselves are the D3 and the D2hs. The D2x's sensor was a joint venture by Sony if my memory serves me right.

Either way, many of Nikon's sensors in their pro and consumer bodies are from Sony, and Sony uses them in their bodies as well, ala the D300/Alpha models on the market right now.

Nikon could use the Sony sensor if it proves to be worthy. Or they could at least use it in their version of the Canon 5D.
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Thank you for your info........

BTW, how would you compare the D3 picture quality compare to the Canon 1D Mark III?
 
Digital Skunk said:
Yeah but not at my local camera shop. I need to support the little guys in my town. Most the photogs in Baltimore are buying them up and supporting them as well, so my name is probably number 10 or something on the list.
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I'd support my local camera shop, except they're too cocky, condescending, and in retrospect they 'gamed' me once.
 
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