Piper Jaffray: As Many as 10% of iPhones Unlocked

[Unspeaked]

Couldn't find a reference to this posted anywhere else, so I thought I'd start a new thread.

There's been much debate on these forums as of late regarding exactly how many iPhones have been hacked and unlocked.

Well, as the following two links point out, Piper Jaffray estimated as many as 10% of the iPhones sold in September (and presumably several of the iPhones that had been sold before then, as unlock methods were not available before this time):


LINK 1

LINK 2


"Last week Piper Jaffray and Co. estimated that as many as 10 percent of the 1.05 million iPhones sold in the three months ended in September may have been modified to run on wireless networks that compete with AT&T, costing the carrier and Apple an undetermined amount of money."

Of course, this doesn't take into account the number of "hacked" phones, which I would guess would be much, much higher (since there are several users who have AT&T service that hacked their phones for the third party applications).

So according to a company with very close ties to Apple and a large interest in researching these types of statistics, we've got as many as 100,000 unlocked iPhones and possibly more hacked ones.

 

[carfac]

That number seems very reasonable. I believe it.

 

[PDE]

I believe it too. But it's also important to keep in mind that many of those who have unlocked would never have signed up with ATT anyway so they're extra revenue, not lost revenue.

 

[chr1s60]

I personally think the number of unlocked phones is lower than 10% and probably closer to 5-8%. First off, from my own experience I know and have met(in person) about 15-20 people with iPhones and none of them have been unlocked. I know that this is only me in my small area of the country, but a number like 10% would mean the chances of 20 people without unlocking is unlikely since most of these people were random and in different cities. The reason I think so many people believe the number is so high is because of what they see on the internet. Many people don't realize that the number of iPhone owners in these forums and all other iPhone sites are the minority of iPhone owners, but they also are the most likely to modify their phones. The extreme majority of people simply buy the phone and use it without ever looking online to find hacks or unlock methods. I also think the number of 1.05 million iPhones is too low of an estimate since they hit 1 million very early in September and because of a price reduction. These are just my thoughts, I'm not saying those articles are wrong, simply stating my opinion.

 

[gkarris]

So according to a company with very close ties to Apple and a large interest in researching these types of statistics, we've got as many as 100,000 unlocked iPhones and possibly more hacked ones.

Now we've got Touch owners hacking their devices and putting the iPhone apps (Mail, Calendar, Weather, Maps, etc.) on that as to avoid the iPhone and AT&T altogether...

 

[zap2]

sounds possible...but it won't stay that way...10% is like 100,000...I can't see that number being 1M when Apple sells 10M iPhones

 

[kdarling]

It's very believable, and I've been thinking the same thing. People around here totally forget that there's a huge world of buyers out there... it's not just the USA.

In fact, unlocked phones in the USA are undoubtedly a small group. But boy, Canada, Europe, you name it... big time iPhone sales going on these days. And the unlock software at just one site was downloaded over a half million times.

Another number I have only seen mentioned slightly in passing, is the actual number of phones sold. Apple apparently counts even shipments as "sales".

I highly suspect that out of a "million" sales, 10-15% have been replacement units given out for volume, failure, broken glass, or other reasons.

For every person we see here with volume, reception, battery or other reasons, there are thousands who simply went back to the store.

 

[CD3660]

....it's also important to keep in mind that many of those who have unlocked would never have signed up with ATT anyway so they're extra revenue, not lost revenue.

Very good point.