Prediction- used old iPhone will be more expensive than new 3G

[zub3qin]

I predict that the old iPhone will become quite a commodity- because it will be the only iPhone that can be unlocked/activated/etc. The new one will not be sold without activation and therefore, there will be no way to get these except from AT&T, for a while.

Old iPhones will get a premium- I think they will sell for $400 even after 3G is out.

How upsetting.

 

[iStefmac]

I predict that the old iPhone will become quite a commodity- because it will be the only iPhone that can be unlocked/activated/etc. The new one will not be sold without activation and therefore, there will be no way to get these except from AT&T, for a while.

Old iPhones will get a premium- I think they will sell for $400 even after 3G is out.

How upsetting.

What's upsetting is the overwhelming acceptance of complete rumors.

Where in the keynote did Steve jobs mention instore only activations?

Where did he mention a higher price for phones without contracts?

Where in all of AT&T's press release info since the 9th have they confirmed or even MENTIONED instore activation?

-----------


And Above All Else.......When has Apple ever taken such a dramatic step backward from a fully developed/integrated feature such as personal iTunes activation at home?

 

[FarSeide]

I predict that the old iPhone will become quite a commodity- because it will be the only iPhone that can be unlocked/activated/etc. The new one will not be sold without activation and therefore, there will be no way to get these except from AT&T, for a while.

Old iPhones will get a premium- I think they will sell for $400 even after 3G is out.

How upsetting.

more than likely, someone will end up unlocking the 3G version.

 

[finfloyd]

I want to upgradge my old 8GB iPhone to and old 16GB iPhone and I'm finding that people are already charging a premium. A few weeks ago 16GB refurbs were $349 from AT&T and Apple but today people are asking over $500. I want an old 16GB not because it can be unlocked/Jailbroken but because I'm really not interested in 3G or GPS and I really don't like the move to a glossy plastic back.

 

[zub3qin]

more than likely, someone will end up unlocking the 3G version.

Unlocking is the easy part. Getting your hands on a 3G iPhone that isn't activated and contracted to AT&T already, is the hard part.

 

[jrbdmb]

I predict that the old iPhone will become quite a commodity- because it will be the only iPhone that can be unlocked/activated/etc. The new one will not be sold without activation and therefore, there will be no way to get these except from AT&T, for a while.

Old iPhones will get a premium- I think they will sell for $400 even after 3G is out.

How upsetting.

You will be able to buy (at least one) 3G for $199, keep it for one month ($70), then cancel the contract ($175) - unlocked 3G cost $445 or so. Used 2Gs will certainly have some value, but I'd think more along the lines of the $350 or so many are selling for now instead of $400+.

Now if someone figures out a way to get a not-under-contract $199 3G for resale, then the 2G prices will plummet as well.

 

[mkrishnan]

Unlocking is the easy part. Getting your hands on a 3G iPhone that isn't activated and contracted to AT&T already, is the hard part.

Well, here's how I see it. This places the iPhone essentially in the same water as every other phone that AT&T sells, non? As well as every phone Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mobile sell. The only differences between all those phones and the iPhone are...

- The iPhone 3G officially requires a contract to activate even if you buy it used (probably addressed by unlocking it, a bit of a grey area, since there isn't an obvious legal basis for this requirement from AT&T when there is no similar policy for any other phone you buy used)

- The iPhone has a lot more buzz than the other phones.

So my suspicion is that, for the next 6-8 months, yes, it will be very hard to get one. After that, it'll be like other phones -- you can get pretty much any phone released in the US for any carrier, locked or unlocked, on eBay now, can't you? I don't see any reason to suspect that, even though the iPhone has a particularly onerous contract, people won't still buy one, get bored or otherwise dislike it, and decide to sell it to you, even before the first wave of post-contract iPhone 3G's becomes available in 2010.

 

[iBookfan]

I want to upgradge my old 8GB iPhone to and old 16GB iPhone and I'm finding that people are already charging a premium. A few weeks ago 16GB refurbs were $349 from AT&T and Apple but today people are asking over $500. I want an old 16GB not because it can be unlocked/Jailbroken but because I'm really not interested in 3G or GPS and I really don't like the move to a glossy plastic back.

Agreed. The plastic back is a step BACK!

 

[bacaramac]

Well, if the new phone will cost a minium of 199+70+Tax+175. This puts the phone at about 450-475. If this is the case people will have to pay this plus the 50 in ebay/paypal fees.

Now we are looking at $500-525, just to break even. This is not going to happen. What will happen is the old ones will sell for more and more and drive the price up and up. It's not until the price of an 8Gb reaches this mark that the new ones will take off. My guess is people will not go through all this effort and checking credit, etc just to make maybe $25.

I picked up the last brand new 16gb from my local AT&T store on 6/9 and paid 540 with tax. I am holding on to it to see what happens. Per the internal memo for AT&T 3g iPhone I will have the option to return it by August 1st and just pay the 10% restocking fee and get the new one. Or if they are selling for a lot of money I will sell it on ebay AND get the new 3G iphone for 299 (16Gb).

EDIT: Although I really like the aluminum backing and look of it on the current gen, I really want 3G. I surf the internet non stop and would love the boost in speed. Plus I think the new has better cell reception since my new house is right on the edge of AT&T service so signal is weak on current gen.

 

[robecq]

Just buy one o/s. Here in Denmark the maximum length of a contract is only 6 months. After that time you can legally use it on any network

 

[skik210]

You will be able to buy (at least one) 3G for $199, keep it for one month ($70), then cancel the contract ($175) - unlocked 3G cost $445 or so. Used 2Gs will certainly have some value, but I'd think more along the lines of the $350 or so many are selling for now instead of $400+.

Now if someone figures out a way to get a not-under-contract $199 3G for resale, then the 2G prices will plummet as well.

This wont work because Apple has announced that if you cancel your contract you will be required to return you iPhone as well.

I know, its absolutely ridiculous, what are they gonna do, arrest you if you dont return the consumer good that you bought??

 

[mkrishnan]

Now we are looking at $500-525, just to break even. This is not going to happen.

I do see your point, although again, this is why I said 6-8 months, which would drop some $80-100 off the price by virtue of a reduced cancellation fee (also I'm not sure I see the legitimacy of putting the $70 monthly charge in the cost, since the person involved presumably has to pay for some cell phone for personal use anyways).

For that matter, does something prevent me from buying myself an iPhone 3G, activating it and using it for six months, and then buying another new iPhone, activating it, which just extends my contract, and selling the first one? Does AT&T at some point get angry with me if I do this say every 4-6 months? This doesn't involve any cancellation fees, right? I'm not characterologically inclined to spend my time doing this, mind you, but it seems kosher.

In any event, I'll be more than glad for any artificial sustenance of the iPhone 2G price, as I do not plan on immediately divesting myself of my 8gb iPhone 2G.

 

[Le Big Mac]

This wont work because Apple has announced that if you cancel your contract you will be required to return you iPhone as well.

I know, its absolutely ridiculous, what are they gonna do, arrest you if you dont return the consumer good that you bought??

Not true -- you have to return it only if you want all your money back in the first 30 days. After that you pay just the ETF.

AT&T is going to have to come up with a no-contract price if only for the people who legitimately lose/break their iPhones and want to replace it. That price will probably be around $200 more than the current/announced prices. And that will cap the price of the 1st gen. iphone

 

[Vegeta-san]

I want to upgradge my old 8GB iPhone to and old 16GB iPhone and I'm finding that people are already charging a premium. A few weeks ago 16GB refurbs were $349 from AT&T and Apple but today people are asking over $500. I want an old 16GB not because it can be unlocked/Jailbroken but because I'm really not interested in 3G or GPS and I really don't like the move to a glossy plastic back.

I bought an old 16gb iPhone from AT&T the other day after selling my old 8gb iPhone on ebay in anticipation of the 3G iPhone. I had to call all AT&T's locally to find all of them didn't have it, but one AT&T 40 miles away did. I suggest you do the same, and do it quickly, as other people are probably doing what I've suggested.

 

[Vegeta-san]

I picked up the last brand new 16gb from my local AT&T store on 6/9 and paid 540 with tax. I am holding on to it to see what happens. Per the internal memo for AT&T 3g iPhone I will have the option to return it by August 1st and just pay the 10% restocking fee and get the new one.

Wrong. You have 14 days to return it. I noted that when I bought mine...Just letting ya know.

 

[GoCubsGo]

I thought the title should have read the old iPhones are more expansive. But either way you're right.

While I like the new phone I decided to stick with my 8gb, but I wish I now had 16gb as I start to use it for some TV shows and such. Space fills up quite fast when you start adding 500mb tv shows/movies and such.

That said, I refuse to pay the premium so I'll hang onto my 8gb until I'm ready to make the move.

 

[bacaramac]

Wrong. You have 14 days to return it. I noted that when I bought mine...Just letting ya know.

I talked to the guy at my local AT&T store and a "leaked memo" was posted online stating that if you purchased and activated a gen 1 iphone on or after May 27th from a local AT&T store you would be able to return it until Aug 1st and only pay the restocking fee of 10% if you buy the new 3g iPhone.

The memo said this is a special extended return period. Although I have not actually seen the official memo, I have no reason to believe the leak and the guy at my AT&T store lied to me.

To the comment on the $70 cell bill, unless you have AT&T you would be paying for two bills.

To the commnet on buying an iPhone ever six months. Since the new iPhone is a subsidy price, you will not be able to renew every six months. You will only be able to get a new phone if you are eligible for an upgrade. You would have to pay an ETF everytime to do this and you would lose your number by cancelling the line. EDIT: The reason you were able to get the new gen 1 without be eligible for upgrade is, it was subsidized by AT&T and you were essentially paying full price for it.

EDIT 2: One additional note, I think all current gen 1 user will be allowed to upgrade to 3G iPhone since the gen 1 was not subsidized. Again everyone, until AT&T officially announces all this detail, take it with a grain of salt.

 

[mkrishnan]

To the commnet on buying an iPhone ever six months. Since the new iPhone is a subsidy price, you will not be able to renew every six months. You will only be able to get a new phone if you are eligible for an upgrade. You would have to pay an ETF everytime to do this and you would lose your number by cancelling the line.

Ahhh, okay, you're right, I missed this point about needing to be a qualified buyer to get an iPhone 3G at the subsidy price. Thanks.

 

[arkitect]

Prediction- used old iPhone will be more expensive than new 3G

Well good news for us owners of 1st Generation iPhones then.

 

[sk8mash]

Well in places like england you will be able to buy the phone on pay as you go. Therefore no contract. Im planning on buying a few and selling them to you guys in america unlocked.

 

[bacaramac]

Well in places like england you will be able to buy the phone on pay as you go. Therefore no contract. Im planning on buying a few and selling them to you guys in america unlocked.

True, I forgot about that. Unless Apple has figured out a way to prevent this (hardware block on unlocking???). Do we know the price on the Pay as you go iPhone? If it is 199 for 8Gb, the model of activate in store is pointless in the US as everyone will just buy on eBay from great people like you helping us out.

 

[sk8mash]

True, I forgot about that. Unless Apple has figured out a way to prevent this (hardware block on unlocking???). Do we know the price on the Pay as you go iPhone? If it is 199 for 8Gb, the model of activate in store is pointless in the US as everyone will just buy on eBay from great people like you helping us out.

Haha... the price isn't announced yet, but I guess it is gonna be alot more than the contract price. We will just have to wait and see how it is priced out as to wether it is worth selling them to other countries unlocked or not. It could be cheaper to buy the ATT contract and terminate it.

Hmmm...

 

[cineapple]

I talked to the guy at my local AT&T store and a "leaked memo" was posted online stating that if you purchased and activated a gen 1 iphone on or after May 27th from a local AT&T store you would be able to return it until Aug 1st and only pay the restocking fee of 10% if you buy the new 3g iPhone.

The memo said this is a special extended return period. Although I have not actually seen the official memo, I have no reason to believe the leak and the guy at my AT&T store lied to me.

So, I just bought a used 8gig iphone, and will be activating it over the next couple of days. Would I be eligible for the upgrade? In other words, do I have to be the original owner of the old iphone, to be able to upgrade? (not sure that I want to, but I want to keep my options open) Does this matter to them?
Do they have to keep track of who originally bought the original iphone?

 

[bacaramac]

So, I just bought a used 8gig iphone, and will be activating it over the next couple of days. Would I be eligible for the upgrade? In other words, do I have to be the original owner of the old iphone, to be able to upgrade? (not sure that I want to, but I want to keep my options open) Does this matter to them?
Do they have to keep track of who originally bought the original iphone?

My brother is doing the exact same thing. The AT&T store told him as long as he has a valid AT&T iPhone contract on his account he could upgrade to the new one (basically you just need to activate if via iTunes). They don't track (that I am aware of) the original owner.

Again everyone, I am not god and do not have any official release information, but the AT&T employees know (obiously subject to change as info is not pucblic), so I don't see why they would lie. Again this info was verified here in Arizona by me and Iowa where my brother lives both at local AT&T store.