Ok. We've all seen the reports, and a handful of people here and there have their phones bend on them. It's clear the 6 and 6 plus bend easier than earlier iPhones do, but is it a widespread problem? We need to take a look at numbers and take the anecdotal incidents out of the equation, because people see the anecdotes and automatically inflate the numbers in their head. People on this forum may have seen 15-20 reports of bent phones, and they freak out. But let's examine numbers.
First, there are a number of things that can damage your phone, and shattering the screen is probably the most common. No one likes a shattered screen, but studies have shown that 25% of smartphone users have shattered a screen at some point. Since smartphones have been in widespread use for about 6 years, let's simplify and put that rate at around 4.2% of people will shatter their phone in any given year.
So what would an acceptable failure rate be for damage via bending? 5x less likely than shattering? 10x less likely than shattering? Let's take the latter: 0.4% of people bending their phone in a given year.
Apple has sold about 40 million iPhone 6/6+ (at least...probably closer to 60 million given the recent China numbers). They estimate 80 million by the end of this year. Given past performance after that, we're looking at probably 150 million phones over the next year. at 0.4% bending, that would result in 600,000 bent phones.
So, if bending were 1/10 as likely as shattering your phone, over HALF A MILLION people would bend their phone.
However, let's look at the real numbers. Oneofthenine.com has 159 reports of bent phones. Let's assume ALL are legit. Now let's assume the real number is 5x higher, since most people aren't going to post to that site. Heck, for safety's sake, let's assume the real number is 10x higher. That's 1,590 bent phones. Out of 40 million, in 1 month's time. That's a failure rate of 0.004% per month, or 0.048% per year. Assuming 150 million phones, at 0.004% x 12 months = 72,000 bent phones. That's a lot of bent phones, but it's an extremely small percentage. That's less than 5 hundredths of one percent, or 1 in every 2,083 phones.
Is that an acceptable number? That's up to you. But remember that this is assuming a bending rate 10x higher than reported on oneofthenine, and accounts for ALL bent phones, not just those that are bent through normal use, but those from sitting on it, ramming against a concrete ledge or railing, anything.
Even with these high estimates, you are still over 100 times more likely to shatter your phone than to bend it, and let's face it, we don't all freak out that our phone might shatter on a daily basis.
First, there are a number of things that can damage your phone, and shattering the screen is probably the most common. No one likes a shattered screen, but studies have shown that 25% of smartphone users have shattered a screen at some point. Since smartphones have been in widespread use for about 6 years, let's simplify and put that rate at around 4.2% of people will shatter their phone in any given year.
So what would an acceptable failure rate be for damage via bending? 5x less likely than shattering? 10x less likely than shattering? Let's take the latter: 0.4% of people bending their phone in a given year.
Apple has sold about 40 million iPhone 6/6+ (at least...probably closer to 60 million given the recent China numbers). They estimate 80 million by the end of this year. Given past performance after that, we're looking at probably 150 million phones over the next year. at 0.4% bending, that would result in 600,000 bent phones.
So, if bending were 1/10 as likely as shattering your phone, over HALF A MILLION people would bend their phone.
However, let's look at the real numbers. Oneofthenine.com has 159 reports of bent phones. Let's assume ALL are legit. Now let's assume the real number is 5x higher, since most people aren't going to post to that site. Heck, for safety's sake, let's assume the real number is 10x higher. That's 1,590 bent phones. Out of 40 million, in 1 month's time. That's a failure rate of 0.004% per month, or 0.048% per year. Assuming 150 million phones, at 0.004% x 12 months = 72,000 bent phones. That's a lot of bent phones, but it's an extremely small percentage. That's less than 5 hundredths of one percent, or 1 in every 2,083 phones.
Is that an acceptable number? That's up to you. But remember that this is assuming a bending rate 10x higher than reported on oneofthenine, and accounts for ALL bent phones, not just those that are bent through normal use, but those from sitting on it, ramming against a concrete ledge or railing, anything.
Even with these high estimates, you are still over 100 times more likely to shatter your phone than to bend it, and let's face it, we don't all freak out that our phone might shatter on a daily basis.
