My experience has been that refurbs rarely (if ever?) offer more than a 15% discount on the current new price of the same Mac. This can get pretty far out of sync with reality on a recently-discontinued computer. For example, B&H Photo had a "blow out" sale on 2014 Mac Mini's shortly after the 2018 Mini was introduced. I picked up a higher-spec model at B&H for about $550 (new). Looking at Apple refurbs, they were still selling the exact same computer for about $1000.
When I got my base m4 Mini about a year ago, the newest ones in the refurb store were still M2 models at about $600 but a new m4 was $530 at a B&H Black Friday sale (and it had 16gb while the refurb was only 8gb). I saw similar deals at other large Mac retailers.
Have not been in the market for a laptop for quite some time, so they might not follow the same pattern (although I'd be surprised). If you can wait until Black Friday, try comparing refurb prices to new models that are on sale at the big retailers. You can usually get better deals that way.
Now, I have nothing against Apple refurbs, have bought many and they were always "like new" - my main machine is a top-spec 2018 Mini refurb. It was about 15% cheaper than the same model new, but when you get into the higher-spec models, that can be a significant amount of money.