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Reasons why we won't see a 3G iPhone until at least 2009 Q2

BergerFan

BergerFan

macrumors 68020
Original poster
Mar 6, 2008
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Mos Eisley
Personally, I think that we won't see a 3G iPhone until at least this time next year.
My reasons? Well, it begins with this article from the UK iPhone launch, back in September (Pay attention to the first paragraph): http://stuff.tv/blogs/live/archive/2007/09/18/live-from-the-iphone-uk-launch-2.aspx

I also think that Apple will be too busy dealing with issues relating to the Enterprise roll-out, the App Store and all the apps.

Apple have yet to release the iPhone in Asia. Who'd buy it there if they knew a 2nd gen device was available on import?

Also, it would make sense to announce the new device at Macworld 2009, making it ready for shipping just before the 1st gen 2 year contracts are up for renewal.
 
BergerFan said:
Personally, I think that we won't see a 3G iPhone until at least this time next year.
My reasons? Well, it begins with this article from the UK iPhone launch, back in September (Pay attention to the first paragraph): http://stuff.tv/blogs/live/archive/2007/09/18/live-from-the-iphone-uk-launch-2.aspx

I also think that Apple will be too busy dealing with issues relating to the Enterprise roll-out, the App Store and all the apps.

Apple have yet to release the iPhone in Asia. Who'd buy it there if they knew a 2nd gen device was available on import?

Also, it would make sense to announce the new device at Macworld 2009, making it ready for shipping just before the 1st gen 2 year contracts are up for renewal.
Click to expand...

The first-generation contracts have ZERO to do with any of this. If you buy a new iPhone at any time during the contract, you just have to extend 2 years past that date. The deal with other contracts is the upgrade discount. iPhone doesn't offer any discounts, so that's totally meaningless.

As far as the Enterprise stuff, that's probably being dealt with by 2 different divisions. 3G is adding a new hardware chip into the iPhone and probably making minor adjustments to the OS/firmware (which they've been doing since launch). The addition of 3G would probably make Apple more money (plus 32GB of flash), so I doubt anything aside from the battery life issue is holding them back.
 
BergerFan said:
Personally, I think that we won't see a 3G iPhone until at least this time next year.
I also think that Apple will be too busy dealing with issues relating to the Enterprise roll-out, the App Store and all the apps.
Click to expand...

You're forgetting:
- Japan can't do EDGE, and if Apple is opening up shop their in 2008 they need a 3G iPhone (Spain and other markets will only do 3G for similar reasons)
- Jobs has said 2008 will have one. Their US network has said the same
- You're thinking that Apple will either not update hardware till up to 15 months from now, or they'll update and NOT put it in?

Simply put, the chips from Broadcom/Infineon will likely have 3G built in as standard by then (e.g. SoC) By that merit, you're also basically saying that the hardware won't get other upgrades that will likely be paired with a 3G capability from the sort of chips that are already being released in quantity to early major customers (Camera resolution bump, video capability etc).

Late Q3 latest. Otherwise they may as well publicly say they've pissed away that year lead on the competitors which will be 3G Wifi touchscreen all the way come late 08.
To meet 10 million handsets in 2008, and not at some point soon get 3G slotted in? No way. Other threads cover more reasons ;)


"Also, Steve Jobs mentioned that 3G chipsets with low battery drain won't be available for 18 months. I hope he's wrong - I need a 3G iPhone."
There are already 3G chipsets with lower battery drain. He ultimately makes the call, but the power reduction/decrease in battery usage is already there.
 
t0mat0 said:
- Jobs has said 2008 will have one. Their US network has said the same
Click to expand...

Right. When both Steve and AT&T say it's going to be 2008, it's going to be 2008!

(Or, if it's not, you need to give a reason why they would both lie. I see no reasoning on that subject in the original post.)
 
southerndoc said:
Steve broke his promise for Leopard's delivery. The man is occasionally off with his release dates.
Click to expand...

Steve (and Apple) promised nothing. He announced a planned release date - but there were never any guarantees in anything that was said. Just like the plan was to have a version of the iPhone SDK available in February. That was the plan. Events conspired to make a Beta release a little later (but not by much). Nobody promised nobody nuthin... :p

I'd have to go back and check, but I'm sure Steve never used the word promise in any keynotes or interviews. Had Leopard become the new Duke Nukem Forever - then people would have the right to be legitimately annoyed.
 
BergerFan said:
Personally, I think that we won't see a 3G iPhone until at least this time next year.
My reasons? Well, it begins with this article from the UK iPhone launch, back in September (Pay attention to the first paragraph): http://stuff.tv/blogs/live/archive/2007/09/18/live-from-the-iphone-uk-launch-2.aspx

I also think that Apple will be too busy dealing with issues relating to the Enterprise roll-out, the App Store and all the apps.

Apple have yet to release the iPhone in Asia. Who'd buy it there if they knew a 2nd gen device was available on import?

Also, it would make sense to announce the new device at Macworld 2009, making it ready for shipping just before the 1st gen 2 year contracts are up for renewal.
Click to expand...

Everything about that is completely outside of reality. Where is the reason I expected to see given the title?

1. There's no EDGE in Japan, among other places in Asia, which is why there is no 1st Gen iPhone.

2. Who would buy it in Asia? Everyone who can afford it who doesn't already have a better phone.

3. Oh yeah, Apple will announce another iPhone at macworld 2009. That makes LOTS of sense. Lets make our entire yearly expo about adding old technnology (more gigs and 3G) to our prettylittle iphone. Further more, lets kill ALL IPHONE SALES FOR 6 MONTHS WHILE WE WAIT FOR THIS PRODUCT TO COME OUT. Apple always announces new products before their release, to generate demand. Apple never announces new product versions until the day they ship, to prevent killing demand. Its a business formula that you don't break, no matter how vivid your imagination.
 
southerndoc said:
Steve broke his promise for Leopard's delivery. The man is occasionally off with his release dates.
Click to expand...

But Leopard is something he HAD to announce. The iPhone SDK is something he HAD to announce.

There's no way they could just say "10.5? I dunno!" and get away with that.

3G on the iPhone, however, is something they don't have to say a darned thing about. It's like video-playback on the last version of the iPod. They kept it secret because there was no reason they had to tell anyone.

So if they're not sure about 3G, they would have just said nothing about 3G.

The difference is thtat they had a CHOICE in telling us about 3G in 2008. They chose to do so, which indicates to me that they're very sure.

Leopard and the iPhone SDK are things they had to tell us about. So they DIDN'T have a choice in those situations, which is what leads to them giving dates they're not sure about.

So you are comparing two totally different things.
 
Small White Car said:
But Leopard is something he HAD to announce. The iPhone SDK is something he HAD to announce.

3G on the iPhone, however, is something they don't have to say a darned thing about. It's like video-playback on the last version of the iPod. They kept it secret because there was no reason they had to tell anyone.
Click to expand...

Except that small part about the FCC ruling that the 3G iPhone is suitable to be sold in the US. An FCC is only one such "tell" An announcement on Portugal, or Japan getting the iPhone. Any big shipping of Infineon chips, Balda or other touchscreens etc. Doesn't Jobs' reasoning of telling a large Apple conference the details before the FCC leaked details still stand for the new version? I mean - they've got the apps store, the apps; why not throw in a new model too?

It makes little sense not to bump the phone to 3G on it's next hardware upgrade (What? Japan didn't sell any 2G phones this January? Only 3G ones? Europe is used to 3G? Say it ain't so...).

So they upgrade but don't put in 3G. Even though the Infineon power efficient chip is out there.
Or
They upgrade and put 3G in. If they do that, why the hell not upgrade the other parts too? I.e. Camera, video capabilities, battery, design, baseband, RF chip, ARM processors, the lot?
 
yayaba said:
I have a feeling that given their track record, when they say it's coming in 2008, it'll really come December 31st, 2008... last day of the year :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Nah, Apple's track record has more to do with months than years. For example: Leopard was said for october (in the end), and came out the 26th. Apple TV was planned for Feb 07, and came in early March (I believe). the Iphone was for June, and came out the end of june. The SDK event was for February, and happened march 6th. But "2008" is plenty enough time for them to deliever a slightly-before holiday season release.
 
This is just a question about 3G in general... is 3G "backwards compatible" with EDGE? So basically... if I have a 3G iPhone and am in an area without 3G, will it fall back to the EDGE network? I live in an area where 3G isn't available, but a bigger city nearby does have it, so at home I wouldn't be able to use 3G, but when I'm in that city, I would be able to...
 
I'm guessing many countries they just wont bother to release the current iPhone, they'll just leave it until the second gen.
 
elbirth said:
This is just a question about 3G in general... is 3G "backwards compatible" with EDGE? So basically... if I have a 3G iPhone and am in an area without 3G, will it fall back to the EDGE network? I live in an area where 3G isn't available, but a bigger city nearby does have it, so at home I wouldn't be able to use 3G, but when I'm in that city, I would be able to...
Click to expand...

Yes, it will fall back to EDGE if UMTS or HSDPA is not available.
 
BergerFan said:
Apple have yet to release the iPhone in Asia. Who'd buy it there if they knew a 2nd gen device was available on import?
Click to expand...
Who'd buy a 1st gen device that does not work on local networks?

South Korea and Japan don't have GSM/EDGE networks at all, so iPhone v1 won't work there. However, South Korea and Japan do have 3G UMTS networks and pre-3G networks like PDC are being phased out there.

If Apple is releasing an iPhone in Japan and South Korea, it's gonna gotta be a 3G UMTS iPhone.

Apple could, of course, make a CDMA2000 (w/ EV-DO) phone. However, that would involve just as much engineering and be less compatible than UMTS.
 
they cant release a non 3G iphone in japan or china, so its going to come out before years end, most likely WWDC
 
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