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Retina MBP Price Drop

J

jmelick07

macrumors member
Original poster
Sep 27, 2009
53
0
Grand Rapids, MI
I am looking to upgrade from a 2008 Aluminum Macbook. I have a Ipad with retina and looove the screen.

Currently I'm looking at a 13in macbook air. But if the 13in rmbp were to drop in price or go on refurb for around $1500 I'd be all over it.

Anyone have a guess (because let's be honest it's going to be a guess, but hopefully an educated one) on when the retina mbp will drop in price or go on refurb?
 
MisterKeeks said:
As for dropping in price, never. Refurb- it's hard to say.
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Why would it never drop? I can maybe see Apple knocking $100 off the base models at next year's refresh. Look at how much the MacBook Air's base price has dropped since its release in 2008.

To the OP, as I said, I can possibly see a slight price slash at next year's refresh. Don't count on it, however.
 
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jmelick07 said:
I am looking to upgrade from a 2008 Aluminum Macbook. I have a Ipad with retina and looove the screen.

Currently I'm looking at a 13in macbook air. But if the 13in rmbp were to drop in price or go on refurb for around $1500 I'd be all over it.

Anyone have a guess (because let's be honest it's going to be a guess, but hopefully an educated one) on when the retina mbp will drop in price or go on refurb?
Click to expand...

Your better off just to order it from amazon or somewhere other than apple when a new model is about to come out.
 
MisterKeeks said:
As for dropping in price, never. Refurb- it's hard to say.
Click to expand...

That isn't necessarily true. If you look at Apple's notebooks, they've trended downward in price over the past decade, yet they retain higher margins than most of their competition. As soon as such features are closer to being mainstream and the yields on such machines are high enough to satisfy the demand of the lower price points, you are likely to see this happen just as they've done with past products. Apple isn't entirely unique in their push toward higher resolution displays. Windows gained some 1920x1080 13" notebooks earlier this year. They've been available in 15" form factors at that resolution much longer, and several years ago you had 17" 1920x1200. Apple was behind in specs there. They came out with something new, but in a year or two, the concept won't look new and shiny anymore. You should consider dropping the myopic views that such features will remain entrapped indefinitely. I'd even expect the 13" Air to go this direction by 2015. I'm not sure on the 11". They're really cheap on everything with that model.
 
jmelick07 said:
I am looking to upgrade from a 2008 Aluminum Macbook. I have a Ipad with retina and looove the screen.

Currently I'm looking at a 13in macbook air. But if the 13in rmbp were to drop in price or go on refurb for around $1500 I'd be all over it.

Anyone have a guess (because let's be honest it's going to be a guess, but hopefully an educated one) on when the retina mbp will drop in price or go on refurb?
Click to expand...

I called Best Buy yesterday and was able to get them to match frys price of $1499 for the 13" rMBP. They would not match the price in the store (they would only come down to $1550 for me in the store), so I had to call their 800 number directly, which actually worked out better b/c I only had to pay 4% sales tax, as opposed to 9% tax if I were to purchase at the store (apparently, their system can only calculate state sales tax and not local tax). Plus, I received free expedited shipping and 4% rewards back (I'm a silver rewards card holder). Lastly, I also received (or will receive) a $75 gift card for spending $1500 on my Best Buy credit card before 12/25/2012 (another deal they're running). Can't complain! Oh, and I also used $20 in Rewards Zone points for the purchase, so I paid $1479 :). Factor in the $75 plus the $60 in Rewards Zone and I'm down to $1344. Nice! I love Best Buy! They have always treated me very well!
 
thekev said:
That isn't necessarily true. If you look at Apple's notebooks, they've trended downward in price over the past decade, yet they retain higher margins than most of their competition. As soon as such features are closer to being mainstream and the yields on such machines are high enough to satisfy the demand of the lower price points, you are likely to see this happen just as they've done with past products. Apple isn't entirely unique in their push toward higher resolution displays. Windows gained some 1920x1080 13" notebooks earlier this year. They've been available in 15" form factors at that resolution much longer, and several years ago you had 17" 1920x1200. Apple was behind in specs there. They came out with something new, but in a year or two, the concept won't look new and shiny anymore. You should consider dropping the myopic views that such features will remain entrapped indefinitely. I'd even expect the 13" Air to go this direction by 2015. I'm not sure on the 11". They're really cheap on everything with that model.
Click to expand...

I meant as in whether there would be a price drop in the middle of this model's life. Overall, as the Retina screens get cheaper, we will see a definite price drop.
 
MisterKeeks said:
I meant as in whether there would be a price drop in the middle of this model's life. Overall, as the Retina screens get cheaper, we will see a definite price drop.
Click to expand...

I probably should have been more specific with my orignal question.

When the current gen goes on refurb does anyone have an idea of what the discount would be? This is kinda negated if I could get BB to price match Fry's

Secondly does anyone thing Apple will drop the price just as they did on the 2nd gen air?
 
jmelick07 said:
I probably should have been more specific with my orignal question.

When the current gen goes on refurb does anyone have an idea of what the discount would be? This is kinda negated if I could get BB to price match.
Click to expand...

Apple usually takes 15% off the new retail price for the refurbs. So this would put the base 13" rMbp at $1429-$1449. The upgraded one would be about $1699-$1729.
 
thekev said:
That isn't necessarily true. If you look at Apple's notebooks, they've trended downward in price over the past decade, y
Click to expand...

15" MBP 2.2 $1999
15" MBP 3.1 $1999
15" MBP 4.1 $1999
15" MBP 5.1 $1999
15" MBP 5.3 $1999
15" MBP 6.2 $1799
15" MBP 8.2 $1799
15" MBP 9.1 $1799

I think I'm missing the "downward trend" here, MisterKeeks looks pretty solid on his statement to me. This was calculated off the bottom end base machines of the listed models, and keep in mind that in newer years there were more flavors of each model, so while there was a $200 drop, you paid for it in places like graphics so it was pretty flat in reality. In the earlier years you pretty much just got a proc bump, whereas now especially in 15" you get a graphics card reduction by going to the base model.

First year for the 13" Pro was Mid-2009 at $1199 for the base. Pretty much where it is now.


The only place I'll give it to you is that $1199 in 2009 dollars was a more given economics than $1199 in 2012 dollars
 
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Ccrew said:
15" MBP 2.2 $1999
15" MBP 3.1 $1999
15" MBP 4.1 $1999
15" MBP 5.1 $1999
15" MBP 5.3 $1999
15" MBP 6.2 $1799
15" MBP 8.2 $1799
15" MBP 9.1 $1799

I think I'm missing the "downward trend" here, MisterKeeks looks pretty solid on his statement to me. This was calculated off the bottom end base machines of the listed models, and keep in mind that in newer years there were more flavors of each model, so while there was a $200 drop, you paid for it in places like graphics so it was pretty flat in reality. In the earlier years you pretty much just got a proc bump, whereas now especially in 15" you get a graphics card reduction by going to the base model.

First year for the 13" Pro was Mid-2009 at $1199 for the base. Pretty much where it is now.


The only place I'll give it to you is that $1199 in 2009 dollars was a more given economics than $1199 in 2012 dollars
Click to expand...

I was going by absolute dollars without adjusting for inflation. You just pointed out that they went from $2000 to $1800 while homogenizing the graphics options. What makes you think they won't implement newer display technology at these price points as it reaches mainstream levels?
 
thekev said:
. What makes you think they won't implement newer display technology at these price points as it reaches mainstream levels?
Click to expand...

They probably will. That's been pretty much the model. Look at the iPad, and performance/hardware has increased and pricing has remained the same. But that's pretty much the extent of an Apple price "reduction" in that you get a little more for the same price point. That's easy enough to maintain profit margin on just based on economies of scale alone.

But the question was, and MisterKeeks responded to was when the rMBP would see a price reduction. Based on historical data that's not going to occur or if it does it'll be marginal at best. My example showing the drop from the 5. series to the 6. series also corresponded to the introduction of integrated graphics. That allowed Apple to save on a fully dedicated GPU and essentially go with lesser, all while claiming an "upgrade" The 13" base has remained $1199 since the day it was introduced until the rMBP arrived which I don't see as it's replacement. I think the current cMBP 13" will be the white macbook of old.

The only Apple machine that's taken a precipitous price drop after introduction was the MBA. Frankly they couldn't sell them, they had to do something. Their line is a bit more diverse now. Other products can support a product in the lineup that isn't performing in sales without them having to slash the price. Apple in 2012 isn't the Apple of 2008.
 
MisterKeeks said:
As for dropping in price, never. Refurb- it's hard to say.
Click to expand...

In one or two years, there retina will be the only MacBook Pro and it will cost pretty much the same as the 'normal' mbp does now. But I agree with you that we won't see price drops any soon.
 
Ccrew said:
They probably will. That's been pretty much the model. Look at the iPad, and performance/hardware has increased and pricing has remained the same. But that's pretty much the extent of an Apple price "reduction" in that you get a little more for the same price point. That's easy enough to maintain profit margin on just based on economies of scale alone.
Click to expand...

I agree with you on the ipad, and their progression. Their price points seem fairly strategic. The $1800 model provides something below the $2000 range. When you add refurbished options in many countries, you have even more to work with there.

I haven't looked into what Windows 8 has for scaling yet. As I mentioned they're getting up to roughly 1920x1080 on a 13" display. For reference Apple is using 2560x1600 at that size. It's obviously bleeding edge, especially for mass market products. I think the most likely scenario is that we'll see Apple adopt this throughout their line when similar resolution starts to become available in commodity parts rather than something specialized. It's mostly that I don't think they'll be split forever when the prior form factor only received a spec bump. The way they paired a lot of updates with the change in display rather than updating both and leaving the higher resolution display as a cto option suggests (to me) that the goal is for one to replace the other.
 
thekev said:
The way they paired a lot of updates with the change in display rather than updating both and leaving the higher resolution display as a cto option suggests (to me) that the goal is for one to replace the other.
Click to expand...

I think we're pretty much in agreement here. My thought is that the 13" cMBP will get retained almost as the low end "gateway drug" to garnish bulk sales and compete against the Windows 8 machines that are in the same price range. I have a Lenovo Yoga, and I would consider it while different, definitely a competitor to a base 13" cMBP 13". I also own a rMBP 13", and it's definitely in a class above although even I who drops a ton of $ on equipment find it to be questionably worth it's price point. Apple seems to be chasing the K-12 EDU market with the iPad rather than the low end Macbook as in years past. That leaves the rMBP 13" and the cMBP and the rMBP 15's. Given the strategic pricing point of the base 15" rMBP I look for the cMBP to go by the wayside. Optical media is indeed dead, and contrary to Apple's delivery model anyway.

Great conversation. Shame we hijacked the OP's post so badly :)
 
Ccrew said:
Great conversation. Shame we hijacked the OP's post so badly :)
Click to expand...

Not too hijacked or at least somewhat on topic. Regarding the pricing structure of the macbook pro, the OP mentioned Apple's refurbished strategy. I've kept an eye on the 15" rMBP, and I've never seen it in the refurbished section. It's either very uncommon at this point or they haven't been released in a refurbished state. It's possible that the volume on these products may be low enough to where seeing them refurbished isn't likely. The 13" rmbp was something I expected to arrive next year rather than this year. Usually Apple debuts things at a very high price point then allows certain features to trickle down. In this case we saw a very expensive 13" instead. I don't expect refurbished units to show up in quantity for a long time, but I could be wrong. I usually look at past inertia, yet they've shifted some of their product cycles around. The break from the annual update model means they could show up sooner. The upcoming ivy revision looks like a set of ULV chips, in which case you could have a slightly revised Air, unless these new chips are slower.

Ccrew said:
Apple seems to be chasing the K-12 EDU market with the iPad rather than the low end Macbook as in years past. That leaves the rMBP 13" and the cMBP and the rMBP 15's. Given the strategic pricing point of the base 15" rMBP I look for the cMBP to go by the wayside. Optical media is indeed dead, and contrary to Apple's delivery model anyway.
Click to expand...

I think they'll take it down to at least $1999 when they EOL the prior 15" design. They tend to set up around price barriers like that. Optical media has been in trouble for a long time, but I can't personally see typing up a paper for college without a keyboard. Even high school required many pages of typing at times. I haven't tried something like that on an ipad, so I don't know how well it would work in practice. I see what you mean though. The pricing of the ipad is definitely better aligned with the K-12 market. Apple has always focused on younger individuals with their marketing, as it helps the future growth of the company.
 
Okay let's all agree that in 2020 when Will Smith has fought all the US Robotics new NSR models and Retina displays have become the standard, YES, you can get yourself a pretty Retina 13" MacBook Pro for the same price as a standard MacBook Pro now. Although, it will probably not be called a Retina MacBook Pro 13". It will just be, the MacBook Pro and the higher end version will have some other new gadget or doo-dad that you really want, like Holographic screens or bendable OLED displays or a glove based trackpad like Tom Cruise used in Minority Report.

But for the next year or so? I would say don't expect a price drop on a brand spanking new Retina MacBook Pro 13" until about early May 2013 when Apple is unveiling the 2013 Retina MacBook Pro 13". But guess what? You won't want the 2012 when that happens because the 2013 is going to be SMOKING better. It will at minimum have a better GPU and probably a faster starting base CPU because the performance of the 2012 rMBP 13 was underwhelming 'at best'.
 
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