Rumour analysis suggestion

[thedavemc]

I had an idea for predicting release dates of updates/new products.

While individual rumours vary in credibility, accuracy and time from release date, one thing that seems to be common when a new/updated product as we near release is their increasing frequency and credibility, usually ending with a crescendo as we get into the final days and hours.

It would be interesting to plot a graph of time against number of rumours for a few recent products e.g. iphone update, ipad, unibody macbook and so on; to see if there is a recognisable shape that could then be applied to an upcoming product. It might be possible to give some kind of probability on whether a product will be released in the coming week, month etc.

 

[Doctor Q]

Counting rumors is tricky, since many rumors are based on information echoed from one site to another and it's not clear when an updated rumor should be counted as a new rumor.

Fake rumors are more likely to show up when people are already talking about a product, so that's not stronger evidence of an impending release.

Seeing a rumor in the mainstream press or in a financial analyst's blog used to make it seem more "official" but those sources now pick up rumors from sites like this, so the evidence is circular.

However... you or somebody else is welcome to try this method and see how well it works as a predictor.

 

[thedavemc]

Thanks for your reply,

I was thinking of it being within this site - counting the rumour articles. The site has a threshold for credibility, and the method is based on the hypothesis that while the accuracy of the rumours varies, their regularity and the rate of increase or decrease in their number is indicative of an impending release.

This is something most followers of the site probably do anyway - there comes a point where the amount of speculation and prediction reaches a critical mass and you could lay money on a release in the coming days or weeks. This would be a way of tracking that.

Obviously it's not cast-iron, but it would quantify the buzz around a rumoured release - a more simple way to implement it would be to have a counter. For example an article on the upcoming macbook pro update could show the number of related articles in the past week and month