Sales predictions based on what we know so far

[betabeta]

I think Apple will sell 18 million watches in the first 12 months, and that would be amazing new product launch, the iPad sold like 15 million in the 1st full year, sold 3 million in 80 days.

I think there will be 1 million in pre orders, probably sell 5 million in the first 80 days, most sales coming during holiday season 2015.

 

[Cashmonee]

I put less than 8 million. I think at the prices we are speculating, it's going to be a hard sale to the general public. To them, it's more expensive than an iPhone, on par with an iPad, and only duplicates their functionality. To surpass 8 million, you will have to make a dent with the general public, and barring a game changing feature announced at launch, I don't see that happening.

For reference, I believe 8 million would be close to twice as many as the original iPhone. For further reference, it took 9 months for Sony to sell 10 million PS4's. Different market, I know, but still a good reference point for the numbers above. One last number to contemplate. In 2012, 29.2 million watches were exported from Switzerland.

 

[KPOM]

You need more choices. We have no idea what Apple considers a success. About 3 million smart watches have been sold to date. Maybe Apple would consider 5 million a smashing success.

 

[ditzy]

I feel all of the options are a little optimistic. I expect around 2 to 5 million the first year. I think that would be a success.

 

[Piggie]

I feel all of the options are a little optimistic. I expect around 2 to 5 million the first year. I think that would be a success.

It's going to be an interesting 1st year.

We all know there will always be the initial MUST HAVE IT, IT'S APPLE wave of buyers, so we've guaranteed a massive 1st week? of those people who simply must have it, and probably have been queuing up for it.

There is also a lot of even Apple folks now that are saying, due to seeing all that happens in the past with Apple products, they are going to wait for v2 where they do all the things they would of liked to have done in v1, and fix issues that have become apparent after the watches have been out with the public for some time.

Then you also have the majority of people who are saying they don't want one, can't afford one, never wear a watch, and are happy with their phones as can't see the point.

Going to be interesting to see if these groups can be persuaded to go with one in time.

Of course during this time, next year we will see more watches coming out.
The LG model. Perhaps Motorola will tweak their current 360 into a v2?

Then we have Microsoft that is supposed to be working on one that will connect and work with all 3 phone formats, iOS, Android and WindowsPhone, and we know Microsoft can put together some nice hardware when they put their mind to it.

It's going to be an interesting year or two, and it's not going to be a clean run for anyone I'm sure.

It will be interesting if Apple open their device up to work with more than just iPhones as that's a limiting factor from day one.

 

[ELPresidente720]

12 million max; I doubt they'll be able to beat a million a month average.

 

[kdarling]

Well, smartwatch sales are expected to grow like crazy, from ~150K in 2012, to 2-3 million last year to 16-20 million this year, to 30-40 million next year... and towards 150 million in 2017.

If they keep at their current pace, Samsung alone should sell 5 million this year, and 10 million next year.

So next year, depending how early they get started, Apple should be able to sell ... what? I put them down for at least 8 million. I figure there's at least that many hardcore fans out there.

 

[Cashmonee]

Well, smartwatch sales are expected to grow like crazy, from ~150K in 2012, to 2-3 million last year to 16-20 million this year, to 30-40 million next year... and towards 150 million in 2017.

If they keep at their current pace, Samsung alone should sell 5 million this year, and 10 million next year.

So next year, depending how early they get started, Apple should be able to sell ... what? I put them down for at least 8 million. I figure there's at least that many hardcore fans out there.

Don't know where your numbers came from, but Business Insider predicts 92 million sold in 2018 with an average price of $100. I believe you found numbers that support your claim. My thought would be that analysts are just guessing and that the predictions will vary wildly. I think the truth is no one really knows if these watches will be accepted by the general public or not.

http://www.businessinsider.com/global-smartwatch-sales-set-to-explode-2014-3

 

[edhchoe]

It is priced too high if it starts at $359. $249 would be a lot better.

 

[KPOM]

It's going to be an interesting 1st year.

We all know there will always be the initial MUST HAVE IT, IT'S APPLE wave of buyers, so we've guaranteed a massive 1st week? of those people who simply must have it, and probably have been queuing up for it.


Of course during this time, next year we will see more watches coming out.
The LG model. Perhaps Motorola will tweak their current 360 into a v2?

Then we have Microsoft that is supposed to be working on one that will connect and work with all 3 phone formats, iOS, Android and WindowsPhone, and we know Microsoft can put together some nice hardware when they put their mind to it.

The bigger question to me is what the watch makers will do, not what Samsung or Motorola do. Apple isn't competing with them.

Remember, the Swiss laughed off the quartz competition until it nearly killed the industry. The Patek Philippe's of the world survived but the middle-class brands did not. It took Swatch making $35 quartz watches to keep the industry relevant. I have no doubt that at least one and probably more of the lower half will be different this time around.

 

[kdarling]

Don't know where your numbers came from, but Business Insider predicts 92 million sold in 2018 with an average price of $100. I believe you found numbers that support your claim.

I really have no claim nor agenda. Just a guess and mild interest. I was working forward from a different chart.

Btw, the BI numbers date back to 2013, and predicted an Apple watch by mid 2014. In fact, BI hasn't changed their number prediction since Sept 2013... they just keep updating stuff about Apple. (E.g in the April 2014 update, they guess wrongly about it.)

In short, BI's predictions are a year old, and worse, were done before it came out that Samsung had sold so many Gears last Christmas season.

My thought would be that analysts are just guessing and that the predictions will vary wildly. I think the truth is no one really knows if these watches will be accepted by the general public or not.

You're right, predictions vary wildly.



I think, though, that once there are multiple styles available, along with interest generated by friends, we'll hit a tipping point like we did with smartphones. Longer battery life is also key to long term adoption, IMO.

Some smartwatch detractors argue that there's no killer app for them. To me, notifications and reminders are enough. Everything else is icing.

Cheers.