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Supply Shortage Theories

D

dorschrm

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Feb 15, 2011
8
0
As I sit here in NYC patiently waiting for my Asian amigos to get their iPad's shipped back home, and then finally get one for myself, I thought it would be fun to speculate why this is happening?

Poor demand planning?
Manufacturing problems?
Earnings results?

The last one has my bet. With Q1 coming to a close in two weeks (the same quarter that saw the introduction the Verizon iPhone), I think Apple has slowed sales on purpose so the ultimate figures they report are a little more tame compared to the rest of the year. They could make a killing in March selling iPad 2's, but why not spread some of that sales volume into Q2 to demonstrate balance? After all, people like me are still going to buy an iPad, even if it turns out to be in April.

Let's get some chatter going here....
 
F123D said:
People are buying them up and trying to re-sell them for a profit.
Click to expand...

But thats plain economics, demand is far exceeding supply, hence the ability to re-sell at a premium. The main question again, why is there such a short supply?
 
Supply Shortage Facts:

1. Demand is much higher than Apple expected
2. 9.0 Japanese earthquake has disrupted worldwide shipping
3. 9.0 Japanese earthquake has disrupted Japanese manufacturing, threatening parts supplies.

Just order online from Apple and be patient. You'll get one.
 
dorschrm said:
The last one has my bet. With Q1 coming to a close in two weeks (the same quarter that saw the introduction the Verizon iPhone), I think Apple has slowed sales on purpose so the ultimate figures they report are a little more tame compared to the rest of the year. They could make a killing in March selling iPad 2's, but why not spread some of that sales volume into Q2 to demonstrate balance? After all, people like me are still going to buy an iPad, even if it turns out to be in April.

Let's get some chatter going here....
Click to expand...

That is the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.

You obviously know nothing about business. Showing "balance", as you put it, gives no value to Apple or investors at all.
 
It's quite simple. Demand is currently higher than available supply. The factories are only able to produce X number of iPads per day. Shipping delays due to the Japanese devastation aren't helping things, as global resources are working towards providing aid to Japan's affected areas. The amount being produced currently can't meet the demand. Unless Apple brings up another factory contract to produce more iPads per day, then it's going to be several weeks, maybe months, before they are easily available through all retail channels.
 
LarzStarz said:
That is the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.

You obviously know nothing about business. Showing "balance", as you put it, gives no value to Apple or investors at all.
Click to expand...

Exactly! Sales departments operate like there is no tomorrow. If you don't sell today, you may not be around to sell tomorrow!

Furthermore, shareholders of public companies want to see constant growth, quarter to quarter. Even Apple, which has showed unbelievable growth the past several years, gets blasted when they sell 49% more instead of 50% more.
 
dorschrm said:
The main question again, why is there such a short supply?
Click to expand...

they sold hundreds of thousands of them over a few days..some saying maybe close to a million. you really think that's short supply? these aren't exactly picture frames they are putting together here, it's a bit more complicated than that.

the demand is greater than the supply. end of story. this isn't rocket science.
 
No one is going to die without an iPad. But I do wonder just how hard its going to become to get these things if in fact the disaster in Japan is affecting component supplies for Foxconn assembly in Taiwan.
 
vincenz said:
Let's not start with the conspiracy theories, yeh?
Click to expand...

I don't know about that - I have a friend of a friend who knows a guy who is a 32nd degree Mason, who told the friend of a friend that this is the beginning of the NWO takeover. The Illuminati finally conceded that the Obama Birther conspiracy wasn't really getting any traction, so they decided that an Asian refugee/Yakuza/Bigfoot gang intent on cornering the world iPad marketing would be much more believable to the American public.

Personally, I think it's Alien intervention from Planet Niburu.
 
Sodner said:
No one is going to die without an iPad. But I do wonder just how hard its going to become to get these things if in fact the disaster in Japan is affecting component supplies for Foxconn assembly in Taiwan.
Click to expand...

Actually Foxconn assembly factories are in mainland china; not that it matters. I think Japan supplies the raw material for chip making and other components which has caused the delay.

I read somewhere on the forum that apple is also trying to stock up for the launch outside the USA; which is why it is so hard to find the AT&T iPad. No idea if that is true just a speculation.
 
triplecore1 said:
Actually Foxconn assembly factories are in mainland china; not that it matters. I think Japan supplies the raw material for chip making and other components which has caused the delay.

I read somewhere on the forum that apple is also trying to stock up for the launch outside the USA; which is why it is so hard to find the AT&T iPad. No idea if that is true just a speculation.
Click to expand...

Well there have been a few "rumors" that Targets have had orders canceled for various reasons. Which just leads back to my question, are these things going to be easier to get in 2 weeks or harder?
 
Sodner said:
Well there have been a few "rumors" that Targets have had orders canceled for various reasons. Which just leads back to my question, are these things going to be easier to get in 2 weeks or harder?
Click to expand...

HARDER!!! See post #6 above.
 
There does seem to be a real shortage of iPads. When the iPhones come out don't they usually get something like 50 a day at each store? Yesterday at our local Apple store there were 15 iPads, all Verizon, and maybe 30 people in line. This morning there maybe 50 people in line and again 15 iPads, mostly WiFi with a few Verizon. I went over to a second Apple store nearby and they said they got zero iPads this morning. Zero is a pretty small number. I heard this morning that there were 400 people in line at the San Francisco Apple store on Stockton.
 
It's not just Apple but others like Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo. I really believe it's the new way to market your product.

It's getting ridiculous that it's not just Hardware but now retailers are getting us pre-order Video Games and even Blu-ray Disc!?!? There's no excuse why I can't get a copy of Call of Duty on the day it's released.

This is why we get scum bags reselling for profit. It first started with Microsoft XBOX 360...
 
dorschrm said:
as i sit here in nyc patiently waiting for my asian amigos to get their ipad's shipped back home, and then finally get one for myself, i thought it would be fun to speculate why this is happening?

Poor demand planning?
Manufacturing problems?
Earnings results?

The last one has my bet. With q1 coming to a close in two weeks (the same quarter that saw the introduction the verizon iphone), i think apple has slowed sales on purpose so the ultimate figures they report are a little more tame compared to the rest of the year. They could make a killing in march selling ipad 2's, but why not spread some of that sales volume into q2 to demonstrate balance? After all, people like me are still going to buy an ipad, even if it turns out to be in april.

Let's get some chatter going here....
Click to expand...

lol
 
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