Tahoe Adoption rate

[maflynn]

Here's where things seem to stand with regard to the adoption rate - I'm not the author of this exhibit, so I cannot validate the accuracy but playing with the graph it does seem plausible.

Source

Take aways - Tahoe quickly reached 40% adoption and with 26.1 almost broached 50%, but a number of people downgraded in November. Tahoe is currently at 43.7%

For context, here's Sequoia

Now with only Tahoe selected

 

[msephton]

Would be great to see data back to the 10.x era

 

[Solarflares]

Finally updated my Sequoia today to 15.7.3

 

[maflynn]

Would be great to see data back to the 10.x era

The chart is interactive
But as you can seee macOS 12 -> 14 is in the single digits at this point

 

[BrianBaughn]

I guess the persistent nags are somewhat effective.

 

[M4th]

Finally updated my Sequoia today to 15.7.3

Didn't realize it was available, so thank you...

Temperature on the mini briefly spiked to 66°C toward the end of the download, otherwise no issues.

As far as Tahoe update rate goes (at least for macOS), can't say I'm surprised... who knows, may just hold out until some other California place name gets released? We'll see.

 

[Solarflares]

Didn't realize it was available, so thank you.
As far as Tahoe update rate goes (at least for macOS), can't say I'm surprised... who knows, may just hold out until some other California place name gets released? We'll see.

I’m generally a year behind on OS major changes.
I use Cubase 14 music software from Oct 2024
Their forum is chock full of people moaning, both about Tahoe and Cubase 15, which arrived within days of each other.
I haven’t even updated Cubase 14 to 14.4, as there are still reports of problems with that, even in Sequoia.
I’m happy being able to work free of surprises, and try not to be too ‘told you so’ to the early-adopters - who do this every year. Amazing the number that don’t have earlier backups as well.

A side story…
When Call of Duty Black Ops was released at midnight in my local small town’s Tesco store, I went in to buy some milk on my way home. The queue stretched right around the store inside, with throngs outside too. It was limited numbers, and by 3am the fighting began, and two guys were stabbed to death in an attempted mugging in the carpark. It was declared a major incident, and Tescos withdrew the game from sale completely.
So, my view of early-adopters is sort of tinged with that memory.
Amazing really. What are people like?

 

[PotentPeas]

There's not a great way to "measure" the adoption rate ... Web user agent strings used to be pretty decent, but Apple doesn't reveal the OS version in there anymore.

These people get their data from people using apps that include their telemetry software, so it is not clear how big a sample size that is or how representative it is, and also it is expected that there will be variance from month to month.

However, it is clear that Tahoe adoption is going more slowly than Sequoia or Sonoma did. This also bears out in the Steam survey numbers. ...It is probably partly because people just "don't like it" or are wary of the big user interface change. But also, Apple seems to be a little less aggressive than normal for rolling people who just rely on automatic software updates up to version 26 across their entire OS stack. (My wife's phone just got updated yesterday, and normally it always gets updated in mid-November.)

 

[tonmischa]

it is not clear how big a sample size that is or how representative it is

Quote:

• Our data set currently skews towards small and independent developers, who in turn tend to have more technically minded users.
• The oldest iOS version our SDK supports is iOS 12, so we have no data before that.
• We use the aggregated data from the over 6000 apps we manage and over 15 million monthly active users. These charts will be more accurate as we grow.
• Our data set is mostly American and European apps – things might look different in other regions. Above is a chart of our combined locales.

Biases in the TelemetryDeck data set | TelemetryDeck

🧡 Helping developers improve their apps with immediate, accurate and private analytics.

telemetrydeck.com

 

[AlaskaMoose]

Didn't realize it was available, so thank you...
View attachment 2587616
Temperature on the mini briefly spiked to 66°C toward the end of the download, otherwise no issues.

As far as Tahoe update rate goes (at least for macOS), can't say I'm surprised... who knows, may just hold out until some other California place name gets released? We'll see.

I see that the Sequoia 15.7.3 update = 4.24GB. This thing is quite large.

 

[Solarflares]

I see that the Sequoia 15.7.3 update = 4.24GB. This thing is quite large.

Yep. Certainly bigger than the 1.8GB stated.
I hope you have Time Machine running.

 

[yeahmeknows]

I've upgraded to macOS 26 Tahoe since Beta 2. To be honest, I can see why a lot of people still haven't upgraded from macOS Sequoia 15. The only useful change for me on 26 was the Spotlight enhancement. That's about it. Otherwise, this upgrade was pretty minor. It does not justify a whole new OS version. Could have been 15.8 for all anyone cared.

 

[maflynn]

Now that December is in the rear view mirror here is what the adoption rate looks like, we entered the year with tahoe crossing the 50% mark.

Using the wayback machine for the adoption rate url, we can see how Tahoe measures up against Sequoia.
Sequoia's 71.77% in January of 2025 vs. Tahoe's 52.49% in 2026. Its clear that the adoption is a lot lower then macos version 15.

 

[FreakinEurekan]

Now that December is in the rear view mirror here is what the adoption rate looks like, we entered the year with Tahoe crossing the 50% mark.

Something's going on with the data collection.... macOS 15 shows smooth progression, macOS 26 looks more like a scatter-graph. According to that chart, we went INTO December over 70%, and out at just over 50% ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[maflynn]

Something's going on with the data collection

I think the population size is such that we're seeing this, but its the only thing I've found that shows adoption rate. I think its possible that people installed, and rolled back, but I see your point it is odd

 

[goodthymes]

To add one point to the data. I downgraded from 26 on my M1 mini in December - just couldn't take some of the weirdness with Safari, and the new Music layout. I'm seriously considering getting M4 just to stay off Tahoe for a while longer.