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Tahoe Adoption rate

maflynn

maflynn

macrumors Broadwell
Original poster
May 3, 2009
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Here's where things seem to stand with regard to the adoption rate - I'm not the author of this exhibit, so I cannot validate the accuracy but playing with the graph it does seem plausible.

Source

Take aways - Tahoe quickly reached 40% adoption and with 26.1 almost broached 50%, but a number of people downgraded in November. Tahoe is currently at 43.7%

For context, here's Sequoia
1765635003040.png


Now with only Tahoe selected
1765635046738.png
 
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Solarflares said:
Finally updated my Sequoia today to 15.7.3
Click to expand...

Didn't realize it was available, so thank you...
Screenshot.png

Temperature on the mini briefly spiked to 66°C toward the end of the download, otherwise no issues.

As far as Tahoe update rate goes (at least for macOS), can't say I'm surprised... who knows, may just hold out until some other California place name gets released? We'll see.
 
M4th said:
Didn't realize it was available, so thank you.
As far as Tahoe update rate goes (at least for macOS), can't say I'm surprised... who knows, may just hold out until some other California place name gets released? We'll see.
Click to expand...
I’m generally a year behind on OS major changes.
I use Cubase 14 music software from Oct 2024
Their forum is chock full of people moaning, both about Tahoe and Cubase 15, which arrived within days of each other.
I haven’t even updated Cubase 14 to 14.4, as there are still reports of problems with that, even in Sequoia.
I’m happy being able to work free of surprises, and try not to be too ‘told you so’ to the early-adopters - who do this every year. Amazing the number that don’t have earlier backups as well.

A side story…
When Call of Duty Black Ops was released at midnight in my local small town’s Tesco store, I went in to buy some milk on my way home. The queue stretched right around the store inside, with throngs outside too. It was limited numbers, and by 3am the fighting began, and two guys were stabbed to death in an attempted mugging in the carpark. It was declared a major incident, and Tescos withdrew the game from sale completely.
So, my view of early-adopters is sort of tinged with that memory.
Amazing really. What are people like?
 
There's not a great way to "measure" the adoption rate ... Web user agent strings used to be pretty decent, but Apple doesn't reveal the OS version in there anymore.

These people get their data from people using apps that include their telemetry software, so it is not clear how big a sample size that is or how representative it is, and also it is expected that there will be variance from month to month.

However, it is clear that Tahoe adoption is going more slowly than Sequoia or Sonoma did. This also bears out in the Steam survey numbers. ...It is probably partly because people just "don't like it" or are wary of the big user interface change. But also, Apple seems to be a little less aggressive than normal for rolling people who just rely on automatic software updates up to version 26 across their entire OS stack. (My wife's phone just got updated yesterday, and normally it always gets updated in mid-November.)
 
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PotentPeas said:
it is not clear how big a sample size that is or how representative it is
Click to expand...

Quote:
  • Our data set currently skews towards small and independent developers, who in turn tend to have more technically minded users.
  • The oldest iOS version our SDK supports is iOS 12, so we have no data before that.
  • We use the aggregated data from the over 6000 apps we manage and over 15 million monthly active users. These charts will be more accurate as we grow.
  • Our data set is mostly American and European apps – things might look different in other regions. Above is a chart of our combined locales.
Click to expand...

Biases in the TelemetryDeck data set | TelemetryDeck

🧡 Helping developers improve their apps with immediate, accurate and private analytics.
telemetrydeck.com telemetrydeck.com
 
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M4th said:
Didn't realize it was available, so thank you...
View attachment 2587616
Temperature on the mini briefly spiked to 66°C toward the end of the download, otherwise no issues.

As far as Tahoe update rate goes (at least for macOS), can't say I'm surprised... who knows, may just hold out until some other California place name gets released? We'll see.
Click to expand...
I see that the Sequoia 15.7.3 update = 4.24GB. This thing is quite large.
 
I've upgraded to macOS 26 Tahoe since Beta 2. To be honest, I can see why a lot of people still haven't upgraded from macOS Sequoia 15. The only useful change for me on 26 was the Spotlight enhancement. That's about it. Otherwise, this upgrade was pretty minor. It does not justify a whole new OS version. Could have been 15.8 for all anyone cared.
 
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Now that December is in the rear view mirror here is what the adoption rate looks like, we entered the year with tahoe crossing the 50% mark.

1767352592126.png


Using the wayback machine for the adoption rate url, we can see how Tahoe measures up against Sequoia.
Sequoia's 71.77% in January of 2025 vs. Tahoe's 52.49% in 2026. Its clear that the adoption is a lot lower then macos version 15.

1767352779832.png
 
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maflynn said:
Now that December is in the rear view mirror here is what the adoption rate looks like, we entered the year with Tahoe crossing the 50% mark.
Click to expand...
Something's going on with the data collection.... macOS 15 shows smooth progression, macOS 26 looks more like a scatter-graph. According to that chart, we went INTO December over 70%, and out at just over 50% ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
FreakinEurekan said:
Something's going on with the data collection
Click to expand...
I think the population size is such that we're seeing this, but its the only thing I've found that shows adoption rate. I think its possible that people installed, and rolled back, but I see your point it is odd
 
To add one point to the data. I downgraded from 26 on my M1 mini in December - just couldn't take some of the weirdness with Safari, and the new Music layout. I'm seriously considering getting M4 just to stay off Tahoe for a while longer.
 
maflynn said:
I think the population size is such that we're seeing this, but its the only thing I've found that shows adoption rate. I think its possible that people installed, and rolled back, but I see your point it is odd
Click to expand...
Some rolled back, sure. But not 20%!
 
My 2021 MacBook Pro 14" runs fine on Sonoma. It will stay there.

My 2024 m4 Mini is doing fine on Sequoia. I have no plans to upgrade further (yet).
I DO have Tahoe installed on an external SSD, and boot from it from time to time, just to experiment.

For that matter, my 2018 Mini (which came with Mojave), over on the back table... is STILL using Mojave, and will not be updated further (it, too, has an external SSD with Sequoia as an alternative boot drive if needed).
 
I'm still running Sequoia 15.7.3 on my M4 Mac mini. I'm a little hesitant to upgrade to Tahoe. I have normally upgraded to the newest version once it got to the .2 version but I have held off this time.

My mini is running fine and I don't want to deal with any possible issues right now. I'm fighting issues on my W11 24H2 computer right now and I'm about to the point of installing Linux on it or just replacing it with another Mac mini. The W11 only runs my amateur radio software and most of that I can get Mac or Linux versions.
 
Even if Tahoe’s adoption rate isn’t the best, adoption rate doesn’t mean anything anymore unlike years ago. Computers ship immediately with the new OS even when it is a months old model. They are not allowed to install the previous more stable OS on their new purchase.


These days they force updates and use dark patterns to try to trick users into updating. They’d tried this twice to trick me into upgrading my MacBook Pro to Tahoe and I noticed it at the last second. They renable the upgrade option when you disabled it.

They did the same thing just now with my WiFi. Our building WiFi doesn’t allow tenants to have rotating MAC addresses sadly. For some reason the ****ing OS keeps re-enabling it because Apple isn’t respecting my user choice (which in this case was forced on me by the building).

What would adoption rates look like if user’s could use an older more stable OS and avoid upgrading until absolutely needed?
 
JMalone said:
Computers ship immediately with the new OS even when it is a months old model.
Click to expand...
????
I have facilitated several Apple purchases from September through just two days ago, for family members, and I have yet to see one arrive with "whateverOS 26" installed. (They haven't all been Macs, I'm also talking about iPads and Apple TV boxes.) They all have had an OS version from spring/summer.

For Macs, you can easily install an old version anyway. (It does require wiping the system, or a trick to make the system "think" you haven't upgraded yet.) Apple only locks you into a new OS if you buy a new model system that was released with/after that OS.
 
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The February check in to the site is now showing 60% adoption of Tahoe
1770028578748.png
 
maflynn said:
The February check in to the site is now showing 60% adoption of Tahoe
Click to expand...
As point of reference, at the same time last year, Sequoia was a bit over 75%.

Steam numbers are in too, and show Tahoe at 62% adoption for January, up from 58% in December. (Sequoia was at 80% last January. Sonoma was at almost 100% the year before.)
 
Last edited:
PotentPeas said:
As point of reference, at the same time last year, Sequoia was a bit over 75%.
Click to expand...
Oh no question, I've mentioned earlier in the thread Tahoe, is lagging behind Sequoia, still its no where near as dire as people make it out to be
 
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