Abstract said:
While its true that people will have to slash their prices in order to stay afloat, I can't agree with that when referring to Apple and their iPod line. They don't need to slash their prices because they're what everyone wants.
I respectfully disagree because I think we're past the initial wave of people willing to pay that premium. Look at what happened with DVD players... everyone wanted them too, but initially they were too expensive for most people's budgets.
To hear the media tell it, everyone has an iPod, and if they don't already have one, they're soon going to get one. But the fact is not everyone does. Not even by a long shot.
According to the Consumer Electronics Association, the outfit that put on the International Consumer Electronics Show earlier this month, household penetration of MP3 players--not just iPods but all brands--in the U.S. runs about 15%. That makes MP3 players one of the least popular consumer electronics product among U.S. consumers, ahead of only digital television sets, pagers and home fax machines and behind such items as liquid crystal display TV sets and satellite TV systems.
By comparison, DVD players had reached 15% penetration by January 2001, after about three years on the market. As of this year, they're now in about 75% of U.S. households.
Prices matter. Looking at DVD player sales: In 1999, U.S. consumers bought some 4 million DVD players at an average of $270 each. By 2003, they scooped up 23 million units at an average price of $138--more than five times volume at about half the price over the course of four years.
If history is a predictor, we're in for an old fashioned price war.