US Smartphone share: Analysts vs Actual sales data

[minimo3]

Its always interesting to see the smartphone market share reports because every site out there will be breathlessly reporting about how iOS or Android or Blackberry gained/lost market share. What most people don't realize is that the analyst reports are based on estimates (what you and I would call a guess). Now that the major telco carriers have reported their actual sales numbers however we can compare them to the analysts:

1st Qtr U.S. Smartphone Marketshare

ComScore: Android - 51.7%, iOS - 38.9%
Kantar: Android - 51.2%, iOS - 43.5%

ACTUAL (Enders Analysis based on sales data from carriers):
Android+Blackberry+WindowsPhone+others: 43%, iOS: 57%

* The analysts estimates' is as of Feb 2013 whereas Actual sales data is as of Mar 2013, but it is doubtful that 1 month will result in huge fluctuation especially since spring is a relatively quiet selling period

Which brings me to my biggest pet peeve: Why doesn't Samsung and/or Google release actual sales numbers? What happened to transparency and openness? Apple releases actual sales numbers, as in devices that are actually sold to a paying customer. Why are the other vendors afraid to publish actual numbers? Are they embarrassed, what is there to hide? Without actual figures from manufacturers the analysts have no choice but to make guesses. I'm not going to get into the debate about who is gaining or losing share, I just want good data!

 

[617aircav]

Who cares if they do or not, as long as phones keep getting better I'm happy.

 

[bozzykid]

Its always interesting to see the smartphone market share reports because every site out there will be breathlessly reporting about how iOS or Android or Blackberry gained/lost market share. What most people don't realize is that the analyst reports are based on estimates (what you and I would call a guess). Now that the major telco carriers have reported their actual sales numbers however we can compare them to the analysts:

1st Qtr U.S. Smartphone Marketshare

ComScore: Android - 51.7%, iOS - 38.9%
Kantar: Android - 51.2%, iOS - 43.5%

ACTUAL (Enders Analysis based on sales data from carriers):
Android+Blackberry+WindowsPhone+others: 43%, iOS: 57%

I don't understand how you can compare usage numbers with sales numbers. AFAIK, comscore is measuring usage are they not?

 

[samab]

I don't understand how you can compare usage numbers with sales numbers. AFAIK, comscore is measuring usage are they not?

Comscore uses browser analytics --- and browser analytics are often wrong with Blackberry's market share because these companies count Blackberry's browser as a Safari browser.

http://stevesstats.blogspot.ca/2013/02/blackberry-z10-identification.html

http://crackberry.com/message-rim-f...-browser-data-new-devices-youre-helping-compe

http://forums.crackberry.com/genera...2/bb10-browser-shows-safari-analytics-791528/

Then bloggers write articles in the internet talking about how Blackberry has a 1% market share --- even though it is actually higher. Then the general public reads these articles and then gets interviewed by Kantar (whatever interview means) and other companies --- and we get press releases that said 80% of the public will NEVER buy a Blackberry.

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/US-iOS-Maintains-Lead-Among-US-Smartphone-OS-Sales

To the OP, the reason why Samsung/HTC/Acer/Asus don't give numbers out because they are not listed in the US --- and thus not governed by the SEC. Whereas Apple, Blackberry (and former Motorola) are listed in the US and are governed by the SEC.

 

[bozzykid]

Comscore uses browser analytics --- and browser analytics are often wrong with Blackberry's market share because these companies count Blackberry's browser as a Safari browser.

Sure. But how does using ComScore to compare to sales figures even make any sense? Unless the original poster is saying everyone got rid of their existing phone on the exact same day.