Quick trip down memory lane (at least according to a cursory internet search):
iPod sales - 600,000
iPhone sales - 6 million
iPad sales - 7.5 million
What do you think the watch sales will be?
Note that we have the WSJ "report" about watch pre-orders by Apple being about 5 million for the first quarter. That report was firmly debunked as a fabrication because it included a statement that the Edition version was expected to settle into about 1 million per month. Obviously that is not going to happen with a minimum sale price of $10,000. I'm sure world does not has enough rich people to buy 1 million $10,000 smart watches per month no matter how good the watch was or how beautiful it is. And this watch isn't that good or that pretty.
So the WSJ was either (A) made up, (B) a fake informant trolling the WSJ reporter, or (C) a legit informant who had very suspect and confused information, but was basically somewhat informed and making their best though misguided guess.
In any case, I don't give much credence at all to that report.
However, looking back at the initial launch of the various iDevices, I think you can see that relatively humble beginnings can lead to some amazing product lines.
I'd also like to point out that I think the watch will sell for an average price point higher than both the iPod and the iPad. I don't know if it will meet the iPhone $600 price (which was the initial release price and I suspect (after subsidies paid by AT&T) about the price it continued to sell for as far as Apple was concerned). I think the Sport version is going to vastly outsell the rest of the line. In fact I'd guess that the Sport makes up for 70 - 80% of the unit volume. The SS making up 27 - 17% and the Edition 3%. Obviously these numbers are pulled out of thin air. And I suspect the Edition's percentage will decrease over the first year. Apple won't care too much about Edition numbers because the margins will be ridiculous for that version.
The reason I have the SS at such at such a low percentage is that it is just too expensive. I think people will figure out pretty quickly that they can buy the Sport, add an aftermarket and unique band, and end up with something about as fashionable (and a bit lighter and more comfortable) as the SS version for a hundred dollars less. I think you buy the SS to have the metal band and the version with the metal band is just too much. I think folks will add a $50 metal band to the Sport watch.
So lets play predict the future.
The watch will launch to hype, long lines and sell outs. But it won't sell millions during its launch weekend.
But, like in the Matrix, where everyone falls the first time, it doesn't mean this smart watch isn't the One.
Media will announce it a dud.
The watch will be useful, folks will like it, folks who have it will have new abilities. Let me explain what I mean by that. When I had the first iPod, I had an ability that no one else I knew had. I had thousands of songs in my pocket at all times. It was cool. No one I knew bought one to start out with. They didn't get it.
I didn't get the iPhone first gen. Too expensive for me since I had a BBRY given to me and paid for by work. I couldn't justify the expense. But folks who had an iPhone suddenly had the internet in their pocket at all times. It was like a freaking knowledge sourcing super power.
I got the first gen iPad. Now I had a device that both a baby and my 90 year old grand mother could use and find magical. It was amazing.
But did any of these sell in huge numbers in their first year? Nope. Not like the numbers they sell at now. Folks had to figure out their usefulness. Yes the devices got better. But they didn't get THAT much better. I knew many people who could have afforded these devices during the launch year. But they didn't buy them. They bought later generation versions though. Not because those later generation versions were better. But because those folks figured out how the devices would be useful to them.
That is what I think is going to happen with the watch. The first gen will be deemed a dude. And then in five years it will considered normal in certain demographics to own an Apple Watch and Apple will make vast sums of money sell watches.
iPod sales - 600,000
iPhone sales - 6 million
iPad sales - 7.5 million
What do you think the watch sales will be?
Note that we have the WSJ "report" about watch pre-orders by Apple being about 5 million for the first quarter. That report was firmly debunked as a fabrication because it included a statement that the Edition version was expected to settle into about 1 million per month. Obviously that is not going to happen with a minimum sale price of $10,000. I'm sure world does not has enough rich people to buy 1 million $10,000 smart watches per month no matter how good the watch was or how beautiful it is. And this watch isn't that good or that pretty.
So the WSJ was either (A) made up, (B) a fake informant trolling the WSJ reporter, or (C) a legit informant who had very suspect and confused information, but was basically somewhat informed and making their best though misguided guess.
In any case, I don't give much credence at all to that report.
However, looking back at the initial launch of the various iDevices, I think you can see that relatively humble beginnings can lead to some amazing product lines.
I'd also like to point out that I think the watch will sell for an average price point higher than both the iPod and the iPad. I don't know if it will meet the iPhone $600 price (which was the initial release price and I suspect (after subsidies paid by AT&T) about the price it continued to sell for as far as Apple was concerned). I think the Sport version is going to vastly outsell the rest of the line. In fact I'd guess that the Sport makes up for 70 - 80% of the unit volume. The SS making up 27 - 17% and the Edition 3%. Obviously these numbers are pulled out of thin air. And I suspect the Edition's percentage will decrease over the first year. Apple won't care too much about Edition numbers because the margins will be ridiculous for that version.
The reason I have the SS at such at such a low percentage is that it is just too expensive. I think people will figure out pretty quickly that they can buy the Sport, add an aftermarket and unique band, and end up with something about as fashionable (and a bit lighter and more comfortable) as the SS version for a hundred dollars less. I think you buy the SS to have the metal band and the version with the metal band is just too much. I think folks will add a $50 metal band to the Sport watch.
So lets play predict the future.
The watch will launch to hype, long lines and sell outs. But it won't sell millions during its launch weekend.
But, like in the Matrix, where everyone falls the first time, it doesn't mean this smart watch isn't the One.
Media will announce it a dud.
The watch will be useful, folks will like it, folks who have it will have new abilities. Let me explain what I mean by that. When I had the first iPod, I had an ability that no one else I knew had. I had thousands of songs in my pocket at all times. It was cool. No one I knew bought one to start out with. They didn't get it.
I didn't get the iPhone first gen. Too expensive for me since I had a BBRY given to me and paid for by work. I couldn't justify the expense. But folks who had an iPhone suddenly had the internet in their pocket at all times. It was like a freaking knowledge sourcing super power.
I got the first gen iPad. Now I had a device that both a baby and my 90 year old grand mother could use and find magical. It was amazing.
But did any of these sell in huge numbers in their first year? Nope. Not like the numbers they sell at now. Folks had to figure out their usefulness. Yes the devices got better. But they didn't get THAT much better. I knew many people who could have afforded these devices during the launch year. But they didn't buy them. They bought later generation versions though. Not because those later generation versions were better. But because those folks figured out how the devices would be useful to them.
That is what I think is going to happen with the watch. The first gen will be deemed a dude. And then in five years it will considered normal in certain demographics to own an Apple Watch and Apple will make vast sums of money sell watches.
watch will beat that.
