When will the tablet form factor replace the traditional notebook

[Gordon Gekko]

As a result of the success of the iPad all of the major manufactures will be entering the tablet arena this year. I am making the assumption that accessory manufactures will be making wireless keyboards and mice for all of the tablets.

With this in mind what is the probability that the notebook will totally disappear from the landscape by 2015?

 

[saving107]

Doesn't adding a clamshell design case, Keyboard + Mice defeat the purpose of a table form factor?

 

[Sydde]

Since Android, WebOS and iOS do not display a mouse cursor and are not designed to handle mouse actions, there would not be much point to using a mouse. But, in theory, these systems could advance to the level of being productive, full scale notebook replacements, given the availability and support for other hardware like wireless external storage and/or USB hub type things.

2015? No. End of the decade, possibly. Remember, there are still a lot of Windows users out there who will have to transition to another OS, because I seriously doubt a Windows design will ever be a viable tablet OS. There will most likely always be notebooks, but by the end of the decade, they may become niche products.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Okay ditch the mouse, the next User Interface will have be a flat pad where objects on the screen are manipulated by corresponding movements on the flat pad. I believe Xerox calls this 10 UI.

 

[Highcroft]

Since Android, WebOS and iOS do not display a mouse cursor and are not designed to handle mouse actions, there would not be much point to using a mouse. But, in theory, these systems could advance to the level of being productive, full scale notebook replacements, given the availability and support for other hardware like wireless external storage and/or USB hub type things.

Android does have a cursor when you plug in a mouse and does support external hard drives / flash drives. I can't imagine how frustrating using one as a laptop would be though.

 

[Sydde]

Android does have a cursor when you plug in a mouse and does support external hard drives / flash drives. I can't imagine how frustrating using one as a laptop would be though.

In that case, how do you handle the multitouch and gestures? Do you add keyboard shortcuts and special buttons? Like zoom = ctrl+scroll?

I have one basic gripe with the touch interface, that you are trying to use sausages for scalpels. When that issue is ergonomically resolved (when I can tap on closely-spaced things, like hyperlinks in small type, and easily disambiguate my target), the trusty old mouse will start to see itself being put out to pasture.

 

[Highcroft]

In that case, how do you handle the multitouch and gestures? Do you add keyboard shortcuts and special buttons? Like zoom = ctrl+scroll?

I have one basic gripe with the touch interface, that you are trying to use sausages for scalpels. When that issue is ergonomically resolved (when I can tap on closely-spaced things, like hyperlinks in small type, and easily disambiguate my target), the trusty old mouse will start to see itself being put out to pasture.

Here's a video of it in action.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLnNzLCKpQU

It really needs to get more refined if you expect to replace your laptop with it. Hopefully Honeycomb improves this and makes something like the Asus Transformer or Slider usable.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/12/asus-eee-pad-transformer-and-slider-another-look/