Why Apple Should Delay iPad 2 As Long As Possible

[BC2009]

I know we are all expecting an iPad 2 announcement next week sometime or maybe the week after, but if I were Apple, I would delay the iPad 2 as long as possible. That is, I would delay it until the forthcoming competitors start providing hard release dates for their tablets.

Why you may ask?

Apple currently owns the tablet market. The GalaxyTab is not a real contender -- the first real contenders were announced at CES this year -- and they run Honeycomb (which looks and feels very different from Gingerbread). These competitors will certainly have an audience from the Android die-hards, but the general masses will need some time getting comfortable with yet another look and feel for mobile computing.

Apple can sit back and keep making good money on iPad 1 up until one of these competitors releases a tablet that could be construed as better than the iPad. So Apple is in a position to sit back and wait and let all the competitors lay their cards on the table. Now that all the competitors have shown their hands, Apple can choose to mass produce whatever prototype they feel best out-shines the competition in hardware and store the units in a warehouse. When the competitors start their media push to create buzz for their coming tablet and announce pricing and the official release date, then Apple can make its move and announce iPad 2 with hardware, pricing, and a release date that will cut the competitors off at the knees.

End result is that Apple can do just enough to make their competitors fall short of their tablet goals for the year and make them spend yet another year retooling. This is one reason I think the 2048x1536 resolution is probably off the table for 2010 -- no competitors have announced a tablet with resolution that is significantly better than the iPad 1. While I am sure Apple has a prototype of such a device, I'm pretty sure they will hold that card to be played in 2012. It's much easier to go dual-core CPU and 1GB of RAM that it would be to push a high resolution screen.

A 2048x1536 display will yield a phenomenal iBooks reading experience and Safari experience, but I don't think it will capture that much more of the market than Apple already has. The only reason to do it in 2011 would be to raise the bar for tablet so high that competition might be scared off completely. Sometimes Apple chooses to make big jumps like that, but more often they go for what will make them the most money in the long run.

 

[maflynn]

End result is that Apple can do just enough to make their competitors fall short of their tablet goals for the year and make them spend yet another year retooling.

Doing just enough is never a good idea when it comes to business decisions and competition. It can also be construed to playing it safe.

Your post mentioned the 2048x1536 which has been largely refuted as not going into the iPad until revision 3.

If apple sits back and rakes the cash in like you say it should, the competition will leap frog apple in terms of features and function. No company ever got ahead or maintained its position by sitting back and raking in the cash.

 

[pedrofan]

The answer is easy:

· They are selling less macbooks and macbook pros because people enters apple buying ipads, not macbooks.

· They are going to refresh first macbook pro's in late february, and maybe to months later, when most people that is waiting for macbook pros have buyed their laptops, they will present iPad 2.

· If they do it in the other way, a lot of people won't buy the more expensive macbooks because they have spent a lot less in an ipad.

And that is what apple has learned in 2010. They are competing with theirselves :O

Macbook pros shortage in bestbuy has started, apple has made their Valentine's day adds with the ipad on them, with verses like "They'll fal in love again and again" using iPad's image below and no add with macbooks on them.. so strange. So no iPad2 before february 14th and 14 days after or more because it's the time to return a buyed product.

All this points to this roadmap:

Late February: Macbook Pro
April: iPad
June: iPhone

 

[BC2009]

Doing just enough is never a good idea when it comes to business decisions and competition. It can also be construed to playing it safe.

Your post mentioned the 2048x1536 which has been largely refuted as not going into the iPad until revision 3.

If apple sits back and rakes the cash in like you say it should, the competition will leap frog apple in terms of features and function. No company ever got ahead or maintained its position by sitting back and raking in the cash.

Apple certainly does the "raise the bar" thing from time to time. I believe the iPhone 4 was one such product where they decided to raise the bar significantly. However, Apple does not do that sort of thing on every iteration of a product. They tend to let the competition close, and then they floor the pedal and widen their lead at set intervals. I just don't know if Apple intends to put the pedal to the floor in 2011 or if they intend to just try to maintain their lead. Often the decision about when to leap ahead is based on the price of component parts, since pricing was one of the key factors that Apple put into the iPad and iPhone.

To liken it to a game of hearts.... You can put the lead in your opponents hand so you can sit back, let them play their best cards, and take the trick anyway with a trump card. Or you can come out and lead with your best trump cards to bleed your competition dry. But unlike a game of hearts, the presence of the Ace in your hand does not preclude the competition from holding the same card, also, in this sort of competition you have to make your own luck.

Either way, Apple is in a position of power right now with respect to the tablet market. They have options on how to play their cards, but whatever they do, they will have to top it next year.

 

[baummer]

Apple rarely lets the market and their competitors dictate their plans. They create markets. They create demand. They are master capitalists.

 

[JRoDDz]

Apple rarely lets the market and their competitors dictate their plans. They create markets. They create demand. They are master capitalists.

Agreed. Apple isn't going to play it safe just because they have the #1 tablet in the market. Like you said, Apple creates new markets. Apple will release the iPad 2 and millions will buy it. Including me