Will Apple Vision Pro delay M3 MBA till Summer 24?

[fameadvance]

Does anybody else think that its highly unlikely we will see the M3 before they launch the Vision Pro?
If the Vision Pro has an M2, and is launching in March then surely they would want to avoid headlines like "chips already outdated".
Seem obvious that they would wait to launch the M3 until after Vision Pro, WWDC next year seems obvious.

 

[mongobongo]

The focus of Vision Pro is hardly the chip inside. If it can deliver on it's promises, the fact that there are laptops out with an M3 is going have absolutely zero significance.

 

[JPack]

It's sort of like saying in 2007, "People won't buy iPhone because it doesn't have 3G. It's already outdated."

The main selling point ain't the M2.

 

[mongobongo]

It's sort of like saying in 2007, "People won't buy iPhone because it doesn't have 3G. It's already outdated."

The main selling point ain't the M2.

It makes even less sense than that. At least 3G was a feature that meant something in terms of download speeds. M2 vs M3 is just a number and if Vision Pro can do what it sets out to do it makes no difference which processor accomplishes the task.

 

[Longplays]

Does anybody else think that its highly unlikely we will see the M3 before they launch the Vision Pro?
If the Vision Pro has an M2, and is launching in March then surely they would want to avoid headlines like "chips already outdated".
Seem obvious that they would wait to launch the M3 until after Vision Pro, WWDC next year seems obvious.

Although many do not believe this but it is likely that the Vision Pro will receive the M3 for free.

This is so it improves the reported 2 hr battery life.

So the Q1 2024 release of the 3nm M3 is on schedule.

The reason why it wasn't announced is to avoid the Osbourne effect for any M2 Mac for the next 6-9 months.

If Apple announced the M3 during WWDC 2023 how many M2 Mac buyers would delay purchase to 2024?

2007 iPhone 2G is largely a 3rd party dev phone that's why it had limited distribution to the US and half a dozen other countries. It sold 1.6 million units only.

2008 iPhone 3G had more than 60 country distribution. It sold more than 2 million units.

Worldwide distribution increased to nearly all nations without US sanctions.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

The only argument for this, is that an M3 upgrade would likely improve battery life quite a bit.
But Apple are clearly not against having different chip generations in various products at the same time. And the M2 will be more than adequate for what the Vision Pro can do, which is pretty much Safari and movies at this point.

 

[svish]

Expecting M3 launch only by March/April 2024. So might be launching after Vision Pro.

 

[Abazigal]

Does anybody else think that its highly unlikely we will see the M3 before they launch the Vision Pro?
If the Vision Pro has an M2, and is launching in March then surely they would want to avoid headlines like "chips already outdated".
Seem obvious that they would wait to launch the M3 until after Vision Pro, WWDC next year seems obvious.

My guess is June 2024, in time for a refresh of the MBA.

 

[mongobongo]

My guess is June 2024, in time for a refresh of the MBA.

That would be very late to launch M3. I could see M3 Pro launch as late as June 2024 but the regular M3 should launch a lot sooner if time between M1 and M2 is anything to go by.

 

[psingh01]

I think it is highly unlikely that they update the MBA in less than a year regardless of what the Vision Pro has. Other machines may get the M3 before next June, but I see the MBA waiting at least one year maybe more before the next update.

The iMac is still on the M1 after all. Apple doesn’t mind selling old stuff if it can.

 

[mongobongo]

I think it is highly unlikely that they update the MBA in less than a year regardless of what the Vision Pro has. Other machines may get the M3 before next June, but I see the MBA waiting at least one year maybe more before the next update.

The iMac is still on the M1 after all. Apple doesn’t mind selling old stuff if it can.

That makes a lot of sense. I don't see them updating the 15" MBA this year and I don't see them updating the 13" MBA on its own before the 15".

So the regular M3 could launch in Q4 with the iMac and/or 13" MPB. Followed by M3 Pro for 14" and 16" MBP in Q1 or Q2.

 

[Rnd-chars]

Has Apple confirmed March as the launch window? Last I saw was “early 2023,” which could mean January (like they did with the M2 Pro/Max products)

Considering the 13” M2 debuted in June 2022, I’d be surprised if the M3 products (eg 13” and 15” Air, iMac) didn’t debut at a Spring 2024 event. June would be the next reasonable window, but two years between updates might result in a dip in sales and spook investors a bit.

As for Vision Pro shipping with an M2 and M3 debuting shortly after, I don’t think it matters (especially if they’re separated by a few months.) Early adopters who want the Vision Pro will buy the first iteration whether it has an M2 or not (myself probably included.) And I think the Vision Pro is probably going to be on a bi-annual upgrade cadence. This means developers have a single SKU for which to target, allows Apple a higher ROI per model, and customers see more impressive improvements on new iterations.

I also highly doubt they swap out the M2 for an M3 for two reasons:
1. If they wanted to leave that door open, they could have simply said “Apple Silicon” instead of “M2.”
2. Hardware and software verification for a product like this has *long* timelines and an expensive QA process. This is not a simple drop-in replacement.

 

[wrcousert]

Didn't Apple offer free upgrades from the iPad 3 to the iPad 4, because the iPad 4 was introduced shortly after the iPad 3? Couldn't Apple do the same with the Vision Pro? The iPad Air was my first iPad, so I really wasn't paying much attention at the time.

 

[blonko]

Didn't Apple offer free upgrades from the iPad 3 to the iPad 4, because the iPad 4 was introduced shortly after the iPad 3?

Nope.

 

[James Godfrey]

Personally with the 15” air launching with M2 so late in the silicons cycle I think apple are going to do similar as they have done with the iPhone line up and keep the Airs one step behind the base MacBook Pro going forward.

I expect M3 to launch in the iMac and a potentially redesigned base MBP (I am talking about the Touch Bar version being refreshed) at the end of the year, they may even launch the base MBP in 2 sizes also in keeping with the rest of the line up… I think it could potentially feature more I/O and better speakers also, but not as thick as the high end MBP’s so maybe more USB-C ports and an SD card slot.

This could then potentially warrant another price drop of the airs in 2024 and the phasing out of the old M1 MBA… the line up could potentially look like this towards the end of 2024… (adding an extra $100 to the MBA’s and base MBP’s if there isn’t another price drop).

MBA 13” M2 - $999
MBA 15” M2 - $1199

MBP 13” M3 - $1299
MBP 15” M3 - $1499

MBP 14” M3 Pro/Max - $1999
MBP 16” M3 Pro Max - $2499

Apples logic lately is to have products for all budgets, and currently there is huge gap in pricing between the Airs and Pro’s and that is likely why they have kept the base pro around and I fully expect a refreshed design of the base pro soon.

If this is the trend they may stick M2 in the refreshed 24 inch iMac and launch M3 in the 30”+ iMac and bring back the iMac Pro naming and do similar with those two models going forward also.

 

[mrmister]

2007 iPhone 2G is largely a 3rd party dev phone

This isn't true—when the iPhone launched they didn't even know/intend to have an app ecosystem, and there was no app store. Apple was just a lot smaller, and it took a couple of years to pick up steam. It was also very expensive compared to subsidized phones that came out then.

 

[mrmister]

Has Apple confirmed March as the launch window? Last I saw was “early 2023,” which could mean January (like they did with the M2 Pro/Max products)

That's right—"early 2024", which can mean any time up til halfway through 2024. They are probably being vague in case it gets delayed. I don't think anyone outside of top people at apple have a real sense when in 2024 it will definitively be on sale at this time, and even they are working on it and don't know for sure.

 

[mrmister]

Personally with the 15” air launching with M2 so late in the silicons cycle I think apple are going to do similar as they have done with the iPhone line up and keep the Airs one step behind the base MacBook Pro going forward.

The MBA is the best selling laptop—it needs chip refreshes regularly to keep sales sharp, and we know they've gotten softer, which is how the 15" showed up in the first case.

I suspect it's way more likely they roll out each M generation the way they have—M first, later M Pro and M Max, etc. Which means I doubt they will artificially keep the MBA behind. Instead I suspect people who got an M2 MBA 15" will have to live with it being upgraded with an M3 chip sooner rather than later.

 

[mrmister]

I think it could potentially feature more I/O and better speakers also, but not as thick as the high end MBP’s so maybe more USB-C ports and an SD card slot.

They've been pretty consistent so far in the AS era—you pay for more ports and variety, and it goes to pro things. So I think we won't be seeing more ports on a MBA anytime soon, and by soon I mean until the product strategy shifts in a big way (ie probably never).

 

[James Godfrey]

They've been pretty consistent so far in the AS era—you pay for more ports and variety, and it goes to pro things. So I think we won't be seeing more ports on a MBA anytime soon, and by soon I mean until the product strategy shifts in a big way (ie probably never).

I was talking about the base MBP a typo on my part 😂

 

[James Godfrey]

The MBA is the best selling laptop—it needs chip refreshes regularly to keep sales sharp, and we know they've gotten softer, which is how the 15" showed up in the first case.

I suspect it's way more likely they roll out each M generation the way they have—M first, later M Pro and M Max, etc. Which means I doubt they will artificially keep the MBA behind. Instead I suspect people who got an M2 MBA 15" will have to live with it being upgraded with an M3 chip sooner rather than later.

Possibly or they could hang onto M3 for quite a long time in which case a late 2024 refresh of the MBA definitely won’t be out of the question at this stage… who knows what apple is thinking…

But in all honesty, with the way the iPad line up has gone, with the Air lagging behind the Pro’s in the chipset department, and now the iPhone vs iPhone Pro’s doing the exact same thing, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mac line up gets the same treatment.

I honestly believe…

The next MacBook Pro base model (touchbar version) will get M3 and a possible redesign perhaps even just called MacBook.

The MacBook Airs likely will catch up towards the end of the M3 cycle just before the MBP base model transitions to M4 and so on and so forth…

It would make perfect sense for the line up…

MacBook Airs - For those who are more price conscious who arn’t bothered about pure performance and I/O and just need a laptop for basic computing needs and for studying etc…

Base MacBook Pro - For those who need the latest chipset, more I/O and overall better sustained performance due to the fan design.

MacBook Pro’s - For those who are heavy users need as much I/O as possible and need extreme performance and want the best display available.

if apple are insistent on keeping the base MBP around they need to justify its place in the line up.

 

[JPack]

Personally with the 15” air launching with M2 so late in the silicons cycle I think apple are going to do similar as they have done with the iPhone line up and keep the Airs one step behind the base MacBook Pro going forward.

I expect M3 to launch in the iMac and a potentially redesigned base MBP (I am talking about the Touch Bar version being refreshed) at the end of the year, they may even launch the base MBP in 2 sizes also in keeping with the rest of the line up… I think it could potentially feature more I/O and better speakers also, but not as thick as the high end MBP’s so maybe more USB-C ports and an SD card slot.

This could then potentially warrant another price drop of the airs in 2024 and the phasing out of the old M1 MBA… the line up could potentially look like this towards the end of 2024… (adding an extra $100 to the MBA’s and base MBP’s if there isn’t another price drop).

MBA 13” M2 - $999
MBA 15” M2 - $1199

MBP 13” M3 - $1299
MBP 15” M3 - $1499

MBP 14” M3 Pro/Max - $1999
MBP 16” M3 Pro Max - $2499

Apples logic lately is to have products for all budgets, and currently there is huge gap in pricing between the Airs and Pro’s and that is likely why they have kept the base pro around and I fully expect a refreshed design of the base pro soon.

If this is the trend they may stick M2 in the refreshed 24 inch iMac and launch M3 in the 30”+ iMac and bring back the iMac Pro naming and do similar with those two models going forward also.

MacBook Air is already one step behind MBP 14/16 by having the base M-series chip.

Apple also has to sell enough of the M-series chips to cover their NRE costs. This is why we see an 18-month cycle on that chip and Apple puts the M-series into iPads. I don't think Apple will move to a 24- or 30-month cycle as you suggest. That's just too long. Unlike iPhone, Apple has already built the two-tier chip system on day one of the Mac transition to Apple Silicon.

 

[James Godfrey]

MacBook Air is already one step behind MBP 14/16 by having the base M-series chip.

Apple also has to sell enough of the M-series chips to cover their NRE costs. This is why we see an 18-month cycle on that chip and Apple puts the M-series into iPads. I don't think Apple will move to a 24- or 30-month cycle as you suggest. That's just too long. Unlike iPhone, Apple has already built the two-tier chip system on day one of the Mac transition to Apple Silicon.

But that’s like saying that iPad mini is already one step behind the iPad Air by having an A-Series chip, that really doesn’t matter to Apple, or the iPad Air is already one step behind the iPad Pro by having an older M series chipset.

And remember the Air has literally just been refreshed, in 12 months time we will be nearing M4 and to me that is likely going to be around the time we see M3 come to the Air.

M3 is pretty much ready to ship right now, there is a reason why apple never launched it in their most popular Mac… and I can guarantee it’s to purposely keep the Airs one step behind the Pro line up… and by Pro line up I mean the base MacBook Pro (touchbar version).

The M2 is already overkill for the typical user of the device and apple know this, and also Apple know that if they refresh the design of the base MBP add more ports and have it come with the latest chipset etc… they will be able to sell it for more money.

Further to this they have just price dropped the Air line up, showing that Apple are trying to get the 13” MBA to the $999 price tag and replace the current M1 Air, the only way to do this is to give it older silicon.

 

[JPack]

But that’s like saying that iPad mini is already one step behind the iPad Air by having an A-Series chip, that really doesn’t matter to Apple, or the iPad Air is already one step behind the iPad Pro by having an older M series chipset.

iPad mini uses A-series for cost. It isn't intended for the same productivity workflows as iPad Air. Notice how Air has a Smart Connector while mini doesn't?

And remember the Air has literally just been refreshed, in 12 months time we will be nearing M4 and to me that is likely going to be around the time we see M3 come to the Air.

Apple added the 15-inch MBA mid-cycle. The 13-inch wasn't refreshed. If you've been paying attention, you know Mac sales dropped 40%. That's a huge drop, too big for Apple wait to launch their 15-inch with M3.

M3 is pretty much ready to ship right now, there is a reason why apple never launched it in their most popular Mac… and I can guarantee it’s to purposely keep the Airs one step behind the Pro line up… and by Pro line up I mean the base MacBook Pro (touchbar version).

Are we really going back to this myth again? TSMC has publicly laid out their N3B and N3E schedules for years now. N3E didn't even start MP until 2H'23. So no, M3 isn't ready to ship.

 

[James Godfrey]

iPad mini uses A-series for cost. It isn't intended for the same productivity workflows as iPad Air. Notice how Air has a Smart Connector while mini doesn't?



Are we really going back to this myth again? TSMC has publicly laid out their N3B and N3E schedules for years now. N3E didn't even start MP until 2H'23. So no, M3 isn't ready to ship.

So don’t you think that the MacBook Air has used M2 for cost? Considering it is their cheapest MacBook in the line up (other than M1 which is essentially going to get phased out).

Also if M3 isn’t ready, wouldn’t it have made far more sense for Apple to skip M2 in the Air line up and launch it with M3 in October (as it is essentially their best selling Mac).

The fact that Apple has refreshed the MBA with M2 now, mere months before M3 launches in October is very telling of their plans.

Looking back at the iPad line up, the air is still rocking M1 that is due to be refreshed to M2 literally right now, but there is no iPads coming for the remainder of the year, and I highly doubt they will throw M3 in it come Spring alongside the iPad Pro’s… what will happen is it will get M2 in late 2023 or early 2024 and shortly after we will see M3 come to the iPad Pro’s.

I think the road map for the MacBook line up will be…

Late 2023 - MacBook Pro (Touch Bar) will get M3

Early-Mid 2024 - MacBook Pro (High End) will get M3 Pro/Max

***We could see another price drop of the MacBook Air and M1 MBA will be phased out giving the M2 Airs the $999 starting price or they may just have a MacBook starting price of $1099 and be happy with it***

Late 2024 - MacBook Air will refresh with M3

Early 2025 - MacBook Pro Touch Bar will get M4

Late 2025 - MacBook Pro (High End) will get M4 Pro/Max

Early 2026 - MacBook Air will refresh with M4

And so on and so forth…