Will iPhone 4 only sell on Verizon for half a year, then get iPhone 5?

[sportsfrk214]

The iPhone 4 has already been out for over 6 months. Judging by Apple's current product cycles, that means we're about 6 months away from the iPhone 5. It seems a bit odd to me that the iPhone 4 would be released on Verizon at the end of this month (I'm assuming for the sake of this thread that the Verizon iPhone is announced Tuesday). Doesn't it seem like a lot of early adopters to the Verizon iPhone will be upset when a new version comes out only 6 months later? This seems like it would put Verizon in a tough position with early adopters complaining they want the new iPhone.

I understand that many of us on here will say "Well just wait until June." But the fact of the matter is that the average everyday consumer does not know about Apple's product cycles, and will likely not be buying the iPhone 4 with the knowledge that it will be outdated in 6 months. So I guess it just seems weird that Apple would do this....perhaps they're just announcing it now, and Verizon won't make the iPhone available until 5 comes out? What are your thoughts?

 

[Applejuiced]

Or maybe the GSM version will be released as usual in the summer and the Verizon iphone's will be coming out after at the beggning of the year.
Its a usual thing for CDMA phones to come out late after their GSM cousins have been out for a while. And also could put less strain on mass producing and releasing 2 different models of the same phone at the same time.
Just a guess though.

 

[bruinsrme]

perhaps the verizon iphone is actually a dual band CDMA/GSM phone that is actually the ip5 with ceratin hardware features disabled.
Has apple purposely disabled hardware features upon release only to turn them on later through a new firware?

 

[The Californian]

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Other mobile phone companies release multiple phones per year. I know that before I owned an iPhone, whatever phone I bought was usually outdated within a couple of months. If someone gets mad because their phone become outdated within a few months of purchasing it, they obviously have no concept of the exponential growth of technology.

 

[Tyre]

perhaps the verizon iphone is actually a dual band CDMA/GSM phone that is actually the ip5 with ceratin hardware features disabled.
Has apple purposely disabled hardware features upon release only to turn them on later through a new firware?

Except that Apple is all about secrecy and an ifixit teardown would immediately reveal everything (LTE/HSPA+, NFC chip, etc.)

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Other mobile phone companies release multiple phones per year. I know that before I owned an iPhone, whatever phone I bought was usually outdated within a couple of months. If someone gets mad because their phone become outdated within a few months of purchasing it, they obviously have no concept of the exponential growth of technology.

Apple isn't 'other mobile phone companies. In fact, they aren't even a mobile phone company themselves. Look at their overall business, it has a very clear and measured order (much like their products.)
Jan/Feb - iPad announcement
March - MBP refresh
April - iPad launch
June - WWDC (iPhone announcement)
July - iPhone launch
August - MBA possible refresh
Sept - iPod
Oct - Back to the Mac

They release things spread out, so Apple is always in the news. They do big things every month, but one phone per year.

 

[alectheking]

It's a good question that nobody can answer yet. I just sold my AT&T iPhone last month and am back on verizon, couldn't be happier that its pretty much guaranteed now to be coming to big red. I am impatiently waiting for Tuesday though for the cold hard facts. I would hate to see it basically be an iPhone 4 with exclusively CDMA as I feel that would reduce the resale value compared to the world capable GSM. Knowing apples refresh cycle, I would also hate to see iPhone 5 come out in June with a dual-mode chip if i jumped on the "CDMA only" iPhone 4(if that's what it happens to be). I have major doubt that apple is going to do separate refresh cycles for a CDMA and gsm iPhone as that would always leave 1 playing catch-up with the other. That would suck. Doesn't seem at all like something apple would do. But if its purely CDMA, the cancellation fee for verizon around the June/July time frame would still be around $300. Not very cheap, plus the contract price for iPhone 5. But if resell is still around $4-5-600 (depending on capacity and condition) it's totally do able. Tuesday can't come soon enough!

 

[The Californian]

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perhaps the verizon iphone is actually a dual band CDMA/GSM phone that is actually the ip5 with ceratin hardware features disabled.
Has apple purposely disabled hardware features upon release only to turn them on later through a new firware?

Except that Apple is all about secrecy and an ifixit teardown would immediately reveal everything (LTE/HSPA+, NFC chip, etc.)

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

Other mobile phone companies release multiple phones per year. I know that before I owned an iPhone, whatever phone I bought was usually outdated within a couple of months. If someone gets mad because their phone become outdated within a few months of purchasing it, they obviously have no concept of the exponential growth of technology.

Apple isn't 'other mobile phone companies. In fact, they aren't even a mobile phone company themselves. Look at their overall business, it has a very clear and measured order (much like their products.)
Jan/Feb - iPad announcement
March - MBP refresh
April - iPad launch
June - WWDC (iPhone announcement)
July - iPhone launch
August - MBA possible refresh
Sept - iPod
Oct - Back to the Mac

They release things spread out, so Apple is always in the news. They do big things every month, but one phone per year.

You're making assumptions, albeit educated assumptions. Don't forget that the iPad became available through Verizon at a date later than the original launch. I don't see it as wildly atypical for Apple to release the iPhone 4 on Verizon now, especially if the reason they've waited is due to an exclusivity agreement.

 

[alectheking]

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You're making assumptions, albeit educated assumptions. Don't forget that the iPad became available through Verizon at a date later than the original launch. I don't see it as wildly atypical for Apple to release the iPhone 4 on Verizon now, especially if the reason they've waited is due to an exclusivity agreement.

The ipad "launch" on verizon was nothing more than a wifi iPad with a mi-fi duck taped to it. Hardly anything to use for comparing and contrasting other typical product launches. I think nearly everybody expects it to be an iPhone 4, just what type of radios it has is the big question. Straight CDMA would suck, but I have hope because the leaks of the "supposed" tweaked frame with different placement of the black bands also had a sim card slot I think. Correct me if I'm wrong. I know theres the possibility that it was an early prototype, but its food for thought especially with all the recently leaked "new iPhone" parts with slightly changed internals.

 

[Geckotek]

.

That makes no sense for Apple. No manufacturer wants a product run that short. They lose out on the economies of scale. Financially this would be a bad move for both Apple and Verizon.

If the Verizon iPhone launches within the next 3 weeks, you will not see an update in June/July for the Verizon phone. You will still see one for the GSM model.

I'll bet my paycheck on this one.

 

[Small White Car]

I still think it'll be an iPhone 4 for Verizon next week (with maybe a minor change, but not enough to change the name) and then a new iPhone 5 this summer for both AT&T & Verizon.

I know everyone's brining up the same point as the OP (people will get mad!) but you know what? I think Apple's answer to that is "suck it up and deal with it." Think about it...Verizon customers are used to buying a Blackberry or an Android phone only to have a brand new awesome model come out a few months later. Yes, those are usually different models but so what? Is it really all that different if both old and new happen to be an iPhone? Or will they see it as the same thing they're used to?

I know a lot of people disagree with me...and I have no proof...but in my heart that's how I see 2011 playing out.

We'll see!

 

[Geckotek]

I don't think Apple will care about people getting mad. They will care about the money. Why on earth would they retool for another model so quickly and give up the economies of scale? Makes no sense. They will want to recoup their expenses of tooling out all the manufacturing facilities, the R&D, etc...

You can bookmark this....it AINT GONNA HAPPEN.

(Sound familiar...Verizon isn't getting the iPhone!...LOL)

 

[Small White Car]

I don't think Apple will care about people getting mad. They will care about the money. Why on earth would they retool for another model so quickly and give up the economies of scale? Makes no sense. They will want to recoup their expenses of tooling out all the manufacturing facilities, the R&D, etc...

You assume a CDMA iPhone 4 took a lot of time and money to come up with. (Relatively speaking.)

I'm not convinced of that. What if all their R&D costs are smaller than you think? What if they'll be recouped on the first day of sales? What if Verizon kicked in a LOT of help and data and cut Apple's expenses on this to half of what it otherwise would have been?

I dunno, but I see all of those as likely options. And if so, your argument is a solution in search of a problem that doesn't exist.

 

[Geckotek]

Even if those expenses weren't there, it's not like Apple to run a product so short. They give up some profits if they don't let the product run for longer.

Also, why on earth would they launch CDMA and GSM versions at the same time when A) the stores can barely handle the load of GSM users upgrading their phones every launch and B) manufacturing can't keep up with the demands of the GSM launch.

GSM and CDMA will be on different launch cycles until a single global model is agreed to by both carriers. (And that may never happen unless Apple strong-arms them....which may happen.)

I absolutely NO logic in thinking a new CDMA model will be released 5 months later. And it has nothing to do with customers being upset.

 

[Small White Car]

Even if those expenses weren't there, it's not like Apple to run a product so short. They give up some profits if they don't let the product run for longer.

That's my disagreement. I don't see it as a "different product." I have no clue which viewpoint Apple agrees with. I guess we'll know by the end of 2011!

But you can see why I disagree with you, right? I'm not using the same measuring stick you are.

Also, why on earth would they launch CDMA and GSM versions at the same time when A) the stores can barely handle the load of GSM users upgrading their phones every launch

I agree with this bit, but in my world that means a June-GSM/Aug-CDMA schedule rather than a June/Jan. schedule.

I'd consider June/Aug. to be "the same time" in the way that I meant it. It's the same time in the sense that they are only spread out for supply reasons rather than spread out for 'cost-recouping' reasons or 'customers will be angry' reasons.

 

[Geckotek]

That's my disagreement. I don't see it as a "different product." I have no clue which viewpoint Apple agrees with. I guess we'll know by the end of 2011!

But you can see why I disagree with you, right? I'm not using the same measuring stick you are.

Kind of, but not really. Every report I've seen states that Apple hired Pegatron to build the CDMA iPhone. So different product or not, it's run on a different manufacturing line. And even if it isn't, the radio is a significant portion of the phone. Not a majority, but large enough to make this a different product.

Even if Verizon put in a lot of money for the development, Apple will not dismiss the opportunity to collect more profit due to the economies of scale. You can't completely ignore this concept. It's major and it drives a lot of decisions made by electronics manufacturers everywhere. It drives costs that Pegatron will pass on to Apple. The average cost of the hardware over 5 months will be greater than the average cost over 11/12 months no matter what you do.

Edit: Despite what I consider to be a con, I also see no major Pro in it for Apple to release another model 5 months later.

Edit 2: I guess if it were as simple as changing out one module on the same manufacturing line, I see your point. But I honestly don't think it will be that easy. The first iFixit teardown will let us know.

 

[Small White Car]

Kind of, but not really. Every report I've seen states that ...

All true.

The only thing I don't know... How does the "sell last year's phone for a discount" plan that Apple does factor into all of this?

I mean, I'm just making up &#$* now, make no mistake about that, but what if they shift ALL i4 production to this new facility for 2011/2012 to make the $99 i4s, thus freeing up the other plants for iPhone 5 production?

Like I said...just a thought experiment. My basic point is that there are so many variables like that that I really can't see anyone predicting anything accurately. I'm just giving my guesses and beyond that I'll be happy to be proven wrong as the year goes on!

 

[Geckotek]

Good point on the sell old model for cheaper plan.

Edit: I'd still bet a lot of money, but perhaps not my whole paycheck.

Edit 2: I have worries about quality if a new manufacturer is starting from scratch building their first iPhones.

Just sayin'.

 

[macsrcool1234]

If the early adopters want the latest and greatest, then they will pay for it. Simple as that.

That's the way it's always been and that's the way it always will be.

 

[kevink2]

I would think it is more likely that the 2012 iPhone would be a combined model, usable on CDMA and GSM, than any 2011 model.

The iPad 3G, for example, came out with the baseband of the 3GS, and not the 4 of a few months later.

Sell the CDMA model for 16 months before the upgrade. And maybe, then an iPhone 5 will come out with LTE, CDMA, and GSM support...

This year, it will probably be the iPhone 4G model. Upgrade to the latest HSPA+ (or whatever) support, since companies are now calling this version 4G